Followin' the approach of 2025 February, the global financial market is facing multiple uncertainties. The volatility of the US stock market, the expectation of the Federal Reserve's policy, the release of NVIDIA's financial report, and the intensive disclosure of macroeconomic data together constitute the core variables affecting the price of Bitcoin. How will the short-term trend and long-term logic of Bitcoin evolve? VX: TTZS6308 NVIDIA Financial Report: The Linkage between AI Narrative and the Crypto Market NVIDIA, as the core supplier of global AI computing power, its financial performance not only serves as a barometer for tech stocks, but also indirectly reflects the depth of AI technology's impact on the global economy. NVIDIA's revenue this quarter increased by 73% year-on-year, and its earnings per share increased by 63%. If this data meets expectations, it may further strengthen the market's confidence in the sustainability of AI hardware demand. However, the risk of volatility after the financial report cannot be ignored. If NVIDIA's management takes a conservative view on the outlook for AI chip demand (for example, due to intensified competition with the Chinese company DeepSeek), it may trigger a re-adjustment of the market's valuation of tech stocks. From the perspective of the crypto market, this volatility will be transmitted through two paths: Risk Asset Correlation: Tech stocks and Bitcoin belong to the high-risk asset category. If NVIDIA's stock price drops significantly after the financial report, it may lead to a decrease in investors' overall risk appetite, causing capital to temporarily withdraw from the crypto market. The Cross-Narrative of AI and the Crypto Ecosystem: AI-driven blockchain projects (such as the decentralized computing power platform Bittensor) or tokens related to NVIDIA's technology roadmap (such as the AI-themed Meme coin $GOAT) may be directly affected. Federal Reserve Policy and PCE Inflation Data: The Tug-of-War over Rate Cut Expectations The Decisive Role of PCE Data in Rate Cut Expectations The core PCE price index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, will be released on March 1st. The market expects its year-on-year growth rate to be 2.6%, slightly lower than the previous value of 2.7%. If the data meets expectations, it will consolidate the market's bet on a rate cut in June. Otherwise, it may trigger a panic over "persistently high interest rates". Historically, Bitcoin and the US dollar index (DXY) are usually negatively correlated. Recently, the US dollar index has risen due to market optimism about Trump's policies, while Bitcoin has benefited from the continued outflow of institutional capital. If the PCE data strengthens the rate cut expectations, it may break this short-term correlation and drive Bitcoin to return to its "anti-inflation asset" attribute. The Transmission Mechanism of Interest Rate Policy on Bitcoin Liquidity Expectations: Rate cuts will lower the risk-free interest rate and enhance the appeal of Bitcoin as "digital gold". If the Federal Reserve cuts rates to 3.5% in the mid-to-late 2025, it may release trillions of dollars in liquidity, some of which will flow into the crypto market. Leverage Effect: A low-interest-rate environment may stimulate the activity of the crypto derivatives market, increase the scale of leveraged trading, and amplify price volatility. Concerns about Economic Slowdown If this week's GDP revision further confirms this trend, it may exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation". Bitcoin's performance in this scenario will depend on the interplay of two forces: Hedging Demand: Expectations of an economic recession may drive capital inflows into Bitcoin as a hedging tool. Liquidity Contraction: If the deterioration of economic data triggers a stock market sell-off, the crypto market may come under pressure due to the withdrawal of liquidity. This week's release of NVIDIA's financial report, PCE data, and economic indicators will collectively shape the transmission chain of "global liquidity expectations-risk appetite-crypto market capital flows". The short-term volatility of Bitcoin may be significantly amplified, but its long-term narrative (halving, institutional adoption, anti-inflation attributes) remains intact. Be alert to the "flash crash" risk caused by data exceeding expectations, and seize the allocation opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides. Against the backdrop of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin is transforming from a marginal speculative asset to a core carrier of the global liquidity game.