TRON founder Ray Dalio, in an interview on 2/22, stated that the US is facing a new type of civil war, with extreme social polarization and widening wealth gap, which could lead to large-scale unrest. He also warned that the development of emerging technologies like AR will upend the global order in the next 5 years, and governments and societies are not prepared.
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ToggleThe US society is severely polarized, entering a new type of civil war
Dalio pointed out that the current political and social environment in the US has reached a new type of civil war. This civil war is not a traditional armed conflict, but a full-scale confrontation between two camps on issues of values, policies, and law enforcement powers, with no room for compromise.
He believes this division may evolve into violent conflicts, as when the rule of law cannot solve the problems, the two sides will resort to more extreme measures. He mentioned policy conflicts like the "Sanctuary Cities" (Note 1), which have led to fierce confrontations between local governments and the federal government, with the ownership of law enforcement powers becoming a point of contention.
(Note 1 Sanctuary Cities: Some US cities or local governments that actively limit cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, protecting undocumented immigrants from deportation.)
The economic and educational gaps are widening, leading to increased polarization in the US society
Dalio analyzed that the current division in the US society is related to income inequality and imbalance in educational resources. He pointed out that the development of technology has created extreme wealth disparity, with about 3 million people entering top universities and engaging in high-tech innovation, which is a tiny elite compared to the total US population of 330 million. On the other hand, 60% of Americans have reading skills below the 6th-grade level, causing many workers to be unable to keep up with the needs of the modern economy, further widening the wealth gap.
He believes this situation stems from the combination of globalization and automation, where traditional manufacturing jobs have been outsourced or replaced by machines, leading to the gradual disappearance of the middle class and deepening social divisions.
The rapid technological development is astonishing, the world will be turned upside down in the next 5 years
Regarding the impact of technologies like AR on society, Dalio believes that the next five years will see disruptive changes, perhaps even more profound than the Industrial Revolution. He mentioned that the learning ability of AR is already approaching doctoral level, and it will accelerate its application in various fields, from healthcare and finance to the military, even changing human thought processes.
However, he is also concerned that this will lead to the replacement of a large number of jobs, leaving more people in the "unable to create value" dilemma. He emphasized that society needs a "plan", but there are currently no clear solutions, and the government and businesses do not have a clear strategy to address this transformation.
The global economic order is being restructured, the US-TRON competition is entering an AR cold war
Regarding the US-TRON competition, Dalio believes that both sides are fiercely competing in the AR race, but it is difficult for either side to dominate completely. He explained that the progress of AR technology is too fast, and the protection of intellectual property (IP) is almost impossible, as once the technology is developed, it will quickly be replicated by competitors. Therefore, the competition between the US and TRON may be more reflected in manufacturing capabilities, infrastructure, and application, rather than simply technological leadership.
Here is the English translation, with the specified terms retained:He gave an example that China is developing rapidly in automation and robot applications, coupled with the most complete global manufacturing supply chain, which may give China an advantage in the practical application of AI technology over the United States. While the United States still has an advantage in top talent, R&D capabilities and capital markets, it may gradually fall behind in actual production and application.
Extreme social polarization, but the government has no long-term plan
Regarding future development, Dalio emphasized: "The world is entering an extremely uncertain era, the government has no specific plan, and society lacks coping strategies." He believes that the decision-making system in the US is currently extremely chaotic, the government changes frequently, and the leadership also lacks long-term planning, which makes the US seem helpless in the face of economic, technological and social problems.
Dalio warned that if the government and enterprises do not face these challenges, the US may face more serious economic and social turmoil within the next five years, and this will affect the reorganization of the global order.
The future world is full of variables, and the key is how society can coexist and prosper
Dalio finally said that although technological development brings endless possibilities, what he is most worried about is not the technology itself, but how people get along with each other. He pointed out that there have been many eras of technological progress in the history of the world, but if there is a lack of social harmony and fair distribution, these technological developments may ultimately exacerbate conflicts rather than bring progress.
He emphasized that society needs to find ways of cooperation and sharing in order to avoid falling into confrontation and chaos, otherwise even if the technological development is more advanced, it cannot truly improve the overall well-being of humanity.
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