In the past few months, Bit has been fluctuating around $100,000, and has even fallen below $90,000 recently. Some people suspect that the bull market has ended, but it's time to recharge the faith.
I am more inclined to think that this is the last dip.
The twilight witnesses the true believers.
BTC reaching $100,000 is a certainty and a starting point. I have always believed that BTC is a risk-free, stable income asset, but BTC will not stop there, and traditional financial capital will not be so narrow-minded.
At this point, we need to know where we are now and where we are going in the future.
Extending the time dimension, let's review 2024 and look forward to 2025 so that we can see the direction of the market.
1. How do you view the rapid rise of Bit in 2024?
The rapid rise of Bit is the result of the accumulation of many factors:
The most direct factor is the ETF, the entry of traditional capital;
The indirect factor is that we are currently in the Fed's interest rate cut channel, and the liquidity of the capital market has improved;
The long-term factor is policy expectations, the expectation of Trump's future policies;
Finally, there is the impact of Bit's own cycle, the halving of production in April 2024, and the growth rate is already lower than that of gold.
In short, in 2024, the timing, location, and people have all come together. Not only is there the driving force of the external macroeconomic environment, but there is also the internal driving force of the industry itself.
2. How do you view the future price trend of Bit?
The ultimate price of Bit is very vague and cannot guide investment, so do not guess the ultimate price. Many institutions' predictions that Bit will reach $500,000 or $1 million in the future are of no value.
Therefore, we need to limit it to the medium and short term, that is, to look at the price trend in the next one or two years.
To answer this question, we must first clarify the current market stage: we have now entered the second half of the bull market.
In September 2024, when Bit was over $70,000, many people were still questioning whether the bull market had really started, but when Bit reached $100,000, no one doubted it anymore.
According to the cycle theory, the entire industry is still in the middle of the bull market, so after the market sentiment reaches extreme greed, the subsequent correction does not need to be panicked, the main upward wave will still come.
For example, in March 2024, the market was in a state of greed for more than a month, and finally the BTC price reached a stage high of around $73,000, and then a correction and sideways consolidation lasted for more than half a year.
If the first main upward wave is from $16,000 in January 2023 to $72,000 in March 2024, the market will have a long intermission, and then from September 2024, it will enter the second half of the bull market and the second main upward wave cycle.
In this main upward wave, the BTC price may have a brief decline or continue to consolidate for months, but the overall trend is still upward, and this upward cycle will last for about a year.
The bull market is born in pessimism, grows in despair, matures in doubt, and dies in euphoria.
Don't doubt, welcome to the second half of the bull market.
But whether there will be a third wave in the future, and where the BTC price will go after breaking through $100,000, no one knows, no one can guess the top.
It can only be said that after the BTC price breaks through $100,000, the ceiling will be opened, and the market in 2025 is worth looking forward to.
Don't guess the top, no one can guess the top. The key is to look at your own psychological expectations and profit expectations. For example, if the average cost is $20,000, then $100,000 is already 5 times.
We only look at the cycle and trend. This cycle started early, and the BTC historical high may appear in the summer of 2025, estimated at around $150,000.
3. Does the Bit ecosystem have a chance?
First from a macro perspective, where does the industry liquidity come from? It is actually the old money of traditional financial institutions such as ETFs and RWAs.
The Crypto industry has a multi-level reservoir effect: BTC first accepts external liquidity, and ETH used to continue to accept the overflow liquidity, but this round is different, BTC has an ecosystem, so BTCFi has a very good chance of accepting the overflow liquidity of BTC.
The direction of the BTC ecosystem is mainly to release the liquidity of BTC, and it needs to solve a key problem: how to safely cross-chain BTC? Or without cross-chain, through lock-up, map to other chains.
BTC is the asset with the strongest consensus and the highest security, and it is worth building a financial system around BTC.
Next, we need to think about a question: where to build BTCFi?
One layer issues assets, the second layer does applications, so BTC Layer2 still has a chance.
The three technical solutions of BTC Layer2 are state channels, side chains, and Rollup.
The most orthodox Layer2 is the Lightning Network, with the added capability of Taproot Assets, which is very suitable for issuing stablecoins and has payment scenarios.
Interconnected chains: Learn from Ethereum, and solve the problem of liquidity fragmentation across multiple chains in advance.
Which one can break out?
In addition to technological innovation, good projects generally have three characteristics: strong product iteration capabilities, strong marketing capabilities, and wealth creation effects.
4. Will there be new narrative opportunities for Bit in the future?
Bit is now called "digital gold", and the future narrative can be summarized with a concept: "income-generating digital gold".
If BTC just lies there like the gold in the bank vault, then the advantages and potential of BTC have not been fully realized. This is a pity.
Especially after Trump really uses BTC as a national strategic reserve, BTC will also become the capital reserve of many companies.
At this time, the key is to combine BTCFi to turn BTC into an income-generating asset (similar to ETH).
In the traditional financial market, income-generating assets account for more than 90% of total assets, so we can see the importance of income-generating assets to the financial market.
For example, Ethereum, after the transition from PoW to PoS, due to the staking scenario, Ether can obtain staking rewards, making Ether an income-generating asset, which has spawned a series of financial plays in the Ethereum ecosystem.
The Ethereum ecosystem has seen a series of innovative financial products such as liquidity staking, re-staking, and liquidity re-staking, attracting more liquidity into this ecosystem and bringing a strong wealth effect.
The Bit ecosystem also needs such an income-generating asset as the underlying asset, so that more new gameplay can emerge and revitalize the ecosystem.
Now the key is to solve this important proposition: how to turn Bit into an income-generating asset?
Projects like Babylon, Super Bit, and Solv are valuable attempts.
Imagine this scenario: the Lightning Network is a payment network, and payments only use the interest or future expected earnings of BTC, while the principal is never touched. This is equivalent to using the time value and future earnings of BTC.
This is a very valuable and anticipated scenario.
5. In summary
(1) Regarding the trend of BTC in 2025: We only look at cycles and trends, the current cycle started early, and the peak of this BTC cycle may appear around the summer of 2025, estimated at around $150,000.
(2) Opportunities in the BTC ecosystem: BTCFi and BTC Layer2. BTCFi will first take on the overflow liquidity of BTC, and BTCFi is built on the BTC Layer2.
(3) The future narrative of BTC: Interest-bearing digital gold, the next narrative of BTC is to become an interest-bearing asset, and currently Babylon, Super Bit, and Solv have made many valuable and relatively successful attempts.
Bit, the most it can do is to suit you, but not to cut you.
If you want to be a diamond hand, be a diamond hand of Bit.
