The single-day outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF reached a record high of $1 billion, and has seen net outflows of over $2 billion for six consecutive trading days. Analysts believe that the main reasons are institutional profit-taking, the exit of arbitrage trades, and a change in market risk sentiment. At the same time, Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000, and other cryptocurrencies such as Ether have also been affected, with a short-term bearish sentiment in the market.

BTC ETF single-day outflow hits record high, 10 funds hit hard

According to SoSoValue data, 10 out of the 12 US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net capital outflows. The Fidelity FBTC fund experienced the largest outflow of $345 million, followed by BlackRock's IBIT with an outflow of $164 million.

Other funds were also not spared, with Valkyrie's BRRR seeing an outflow of about $100 million, Bitwise's BITB seeing an outflow of about $88.3 million, and Grayscale's BTC seeing an outflow of about $85 million. The flow data for the Ark Invest and 21Shares co-launched ARKB has not yet been disclosed, so the actual outflow amount may be even higher.

This outflow record has surpassed the previous record of $671 million set on December 19 last year. At that time, the price of Bit dropped sharply from its all-time high of $108,000, and the current capital outflow is also accompanied by a market plunge, with Bit now trading around $88,000, the level before the election of former US President Trump.

This is also the first time that Bit spot ETFs have faced net outflows of over $500 million for three consecutive weeks, indicating a gradual loss of investor confidence.

Institutions take profits, Bitcoin market under pressure

In addition to Bit, the overall crypto market is also facing selling pressure, with large tokens such as ETH, XRP and SOL seeing more significant declines. Presto Research head Peter Chung pointed out that this market decline is closely related to the global decline in risk appetite:

Bit falling below $90,000 is consistent with the broader risk-off trade trend. This is reflected in the weakness of Nasdaq futures, the strength of the Japanese yen, and the resilience of the 10-year US Treasury yield.

Chung further explained that traditional finance (TradFi) hedge funds have recently widely adopted arbitrage trading strategies: "Buy Bit ETFs and short Bit futures on the CME to capture a spread of about 10%."

However, as the return on this strategy has shrunk to 5%, many institutions have chosen to unwind their positions, which may have triggered the massive capital outflow.

(Arthur Hayes warns: Hedge funds taking profits, Bit may drop to $70,000)

Institutional investors adjust strategies, investors still cautious

BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas believes that multiple factors have led to the capital outflow from ETFs, with the adjustment of institutional investors' positions being a key factor:

Bit performed strongly in early 2024, and some investors chose to take profits. After such a big rally, increased market volatility makes locking in profits a natural choice for investors.

In addition, macroeconomic factors are also affecting market sentiment, including the uncertainty of US-China trade relations and market expectations of the Fed's interest rate policy, making investors cautious about potential increases in capital costs.

(Is the "Trump fever" subsiding? Market turmoil raises concerns about a "Trump recession")

Analyst: Liquidity tightens, but long-term outlook remains bullish

As of now, the cumulative net inflow of US Bit spot ETFs has dropped to $38 billion, the lowest level so far this year, reflecting a tightening of market liquidity and increasing volatility.

However, Lucas remains optimistic, believing that the reduction in Bit supply due to the halving event will ultimately provide strong structural support:

In the short term, the outflow of ETF funds may put pressure on the Bit price, but it will not fundamentally reverse the long-term trend, as the Bit price is jointly affected by spot demand, on-chain activity, derivatives market dynamics and macroeconomic factors.