The entire market encountered a cold spell yesterday, with Bit falling below $90,000.

Many voices attributed this decline to the epic theft incident recently experienced by the Bybit exchange.

Although the incident has been handled in a relatively satisfactory manner through the efforts of the exchange and the assistance of various parties, people are concerned that the stolen ETH will create huge selling pressure on the market.

In fact, whether or not this selling pressure actually occurs, this incident will certainly have a significant impact on market sentiment.

In addition, the latest data released in the US fell short of expectations, and the potential negative impact of the latest Trump policies, among other factors, will also have a certain impact on the crypto market.

The current crypto market has become a "startled bird", and any slight movement, whether external or internal, can deal a blow to the market.

In addition to these events, there is another recent focus of attention:

Pump.fun is about to launch its own AMM exchange.

With this news, the token of the Raydium exchange, which is highly dependent on the Solana meme coin, has also experienced a significant impact.

On the surface, this seems to be Pump.fun not wanting the profits to flow to outsiders, since the exchange has been making such lucrative profits from this.

But to me, it feels more like an upgrade of the internal competition, as the profits from issuing meme coins are becoming increasingly thin, and in this situation, the project parties are no longer willing to share the benefits with other collaborators in the ecosystem.

In the past, such events would only occur when the market was in a deep bear market. We have seen many such examples in the Ethereum ecosystem in 2022 and 2023.

Although in my view, we have been in a bear market throughout this cycle, the fact that the internal competition is starting to emerge now is somewhat surprising to me.

This also indicates that the entire ecosystem currently does not see any sub-sector that can attract external attention, so the internal competition has emerged.

Combining the above situations, and looking back on the ups and downs we have experienced in this cycle, one phenomenon is becoming increasingly evident:

Although Bit still appears to be the leader of the entire market and is leading the overall crypto ecosystem, Bit is increasingly unable to stand on its own. In the past, when the entire ecosystem was subjected to various shocks, other coins would fall, but Bit could still withstand the impact; but now, Bit is also increasingly unable to withstand these shocks.

This increasingly indicates that without the prosperity of the entire ecosystem, the price of Bit itself is also not stable.

For the entire ecosystem to experience a broad-based rally, there must be a real application explosion. Without technological, model, and business innovation, the advancement of the entire crypto ecosystem can only rely on the concept of Bit as "digital gold". But this concept cannot support the ecosystem in the long run, nor can it support the price of Bit in the long run.

Since Bit broke through $100,000 in early December last year, it has been hovering around $100,000. The various positive news that has been reported since then has almost failed to push its price higher, but as long as there is any negative news from within or outside the ecosystem, the price of Bit can be knocked down below $100,000 at any time.

Therefore, I believe that if the crypto ecosystem still fails to experience another ecological explosion in the future, even if policies such as Bit becoming the US national reserve are eventually implemented, the upside potential of Bit in this cycle will be very limited. And if any negative news from external or internal sources emerges in the future, the price of Bit may even be affected and continue to decline.

I had previously speculated that this cycle might reach its peak between March and August, but now, unless a miracle occurs within the ecosystem, otherwise, without a change in the current situation, even if there is a peak, it is likely to be a Pyrrhic victory.