The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a full sell-off. What caused this round of plunge?

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Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as requested: The crypto market is plagued by both internal and external troubles, covered in "negative buffs" from all sides. Author: Glendon, Techub News Since Bitcoin fell below $90,000 on February 25th, the crypto market has seen an across-the-board crash, with the market sliding like a sled downhill. In the early hours of today, Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $82,200, hitting a new low since November 12, 2024; Ethereum also fell to around $2,100, erasing all its gains since August 2024. According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours exceeded $772 million, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for 60% and 17% of the liquidations respectively, while a large number of Altcoin long positions were also collectively liquidated in the past two days. As market sentiment remains in a "state of extreme panic", despite the massive drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum, there is still no sign of the downtrend stopping. So the question is, what caused this round of crypto market crash? Based on various factors and analysis, the author believes that this market crash may be a "panic stampede" phenomenon triggered by the resonance of multiple negative factors. Macroeconomic Policy Factors At the macro level, it can be analyzed in conjunction with the uncertainty of Trump's recent policies, the U.S. stock market bubble, and the failure of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. Firstly, although Trump had publicly stated his support for Bitcoin as a "strategic reserve asset", he did not actively promote the formulation of relevant crypto policies after taking office. In fact, the market sentiment had already been pushed to its peak by investors' various optimistic expectations even before Trump took office. As Trump continued to push his tariff plans (such as imposing import tariffs on Mexico and Canada), some analysts pointed out that this triggered public concerns about the trade war, leading to an increase in risk aversion sentiment, causing investors to choose to sell off high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Additionally, the legislative process of state-level Bitcoin-related bills in the U.S. has also begun to stall. Currently, more than 30 states have proposed bills involving strategic Bitcoin reserves and digital asset investments, but some state governments have already rejected the relevant proposals, with the most significant impact being the South Dakota legislature's seemingly delayed but actually killed "bill allowing state governments to invest in Bitcoin". During the same period, the strategic Bitcoin reserve bills proposed by Montana and Wyoming were also rejected. The occurrence of these series of events has also exposed the divergence between the Trump administration and state-level policies. Investors suddenly found that the passage of Bitcoin bills was not as smooth as they had imagined, and when their expectations were repeatedly disappointed, it undoubtedly undermined the market's confidence in the "crypto-friendly" commitments of the Trump administration to a certain extent. On the other hand, the U.S. stock market bubble and the Fed's reluctance to cut interest rates have also impacted the crypto market. According to Yicai Global, as of February 26th, the U.S. stock market has experienced sell-offs for 4 consecutive days, with popular tech stocks plummeting from their highs, with cumulative declines ranging from 10% to 35%. Some analysts pointed out that this selling sentiment towards high-valuation tech stocks is also gradually spreading to the crypto sector, with investors worried about the bursting of the U.S. stock market bubble, leading to a rapid decline in risk appetite and causing capital to withdraw from high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. At the same time, the Fed's persistent reluctance to cut interest rates has strengthened the appeal of the U.S. dollar as a global reserve currency, causing some capital to flow back from crypto and other risky assets to U.S. dollar assets. "Negative Buffs" Plaguing the Crypto Market The crypto market has been plagued by both internal and external troubles recently, covered in "negative buffs" from all sides. Since February this year, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced severe "bleeding effects". As an important inflow channel for institutional capital, their fund flow data is also a key indicator affecting market confidence. However, throughout February, Bitcoin spot ETFs have been experiencing net outflows, with some outflows exceeding $100 million. According to iChaingo data, from February 18 to 26 Eastern Time, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced 7 consecutive days of net outflows, with the net outflow on February 25 reaching as high as $1.14 billion, setting a new record for the largest single-day net outflow since their launch, which undoubtedly reflects the pessimistic expectations of institutional investors on the short-term price trend. In comparison, the situation of Ethereum spot ETFs is better than Bitcoin, but they have also experienced 5 consecutive days of net outflows from February 20 to 26. However, the negative factors facing Ethereum are not limited to this. In fact, Ethereum has already fallen into the dilemma of expansion difficulties and is unable to extricate itself, which is the main reason for its relatively sluggish price performance in the past two months. Ethereum plans to alleviate the expansion problem through the Pectra upgrade, but the process of this upgrade has not been smooth sailing. According to CoinDesk, the Ethereum Pectra upgrade was activated on the Holesky testnet but ultimately failed to be confirmed, and as of now, the Ethereum team has not announced the reason for the testnet's failure to complete. Furthermore, Solana, which once enjoyed unparalleled popularity with Meme coins, has also suffered multiple blows recently. Under the successive attacks of Trump's Meme coin TRUMP and the Meme coin LIBRA promoted by the President of Argentina, the potential value of the Meme coin market has been severely diminished, and many investors have lost interest in Meme coins, with some analysts even believing that the Meme coin craze is nearing its end. As a result, the Meme coin market that Solana relied on has also entered a state of decline. Even more heartbreaking is that Solana is about to face the largest-scale "storm" of SOL token unlocking. According to Cointelegraph, Solana will unlock over 11.2 million SOL tokens (worth about $2 billion) on March 1st, which undoubtedly adds further pressure on SOL's performance. Crypto analyst Artchick.eth analyzed that "over 15 million SOL (about $2.5 billion) are expected to enter the circulating market in the next three months." Affected by this, SOL once fell to around $130, hitting a new low since September 18, 2024. Frequent Hacking Incidents On the night of February 21st, the crypto trading platform Bybit was hacked, with over 400,000 Ethereum and stETH (total asset value exceeding $1.5 billion) stolen, becoming the largest theft case in crypto history and further raising questions about crypto security, triggering a panic sell-off by a large number of investors. Although Bybit has made efforts to minimize the negative impact, the massive Ethereum stolen by the hackers has undoubtedly become a "landmine" affecting the market sentiment. As of the time of writing, according to X user Yujin's monitoring, in the past 24 hours, the addresses marked as Bybit hackers have laundered about 71,000 Ethereum (worth about $170 million). So far, the Ethereum that has been washed away has reached about 206,000, but the hacker addresses still hold 292,000 Ethereum (worth about $685 million). Yujin previously stated that the hackers are expected to convert the remaining ETH into other assets (such as BTC, DAI, etc.) within half a month.

Except for Bybit, the stablecoin payment platform Infini was also attacked by hackers on February 24, with nearly $50 million in crypto assets stolen. Although the amount stolen was far less than the former, the successive hacking incidents have not only undermined investor confidence, but also had a direct impact on market sentiment.

In summary, this round of decline is not only an adjustment of the market's own demand, but also a comprehensive response of the market to the withdrawal of institutional funds, the impact of macroeconomic policies, hacking incidents, and the bursting of the bubble. In essence, the author believes that the sustained rise of cryptocurrencies such as BTC since the end of 2024 has accumulated a considerable amount of profit-taking, but since early February, the BTC price has been fluctuating in the range of $90,000 to $100,000 and has not been able to break through the resistance level. In the absence of major positive factors, the selling of these profit-taking positions will also put tremendous pressure on the market price.

However, it is still too early to declare the "end of the bull market" despite the multiple factors affecting the current market.

Yu Jia-ning, co-chairman of the Blockchain Special Committee of the China Communications Industry Association, said in an interview with the Beijing Business Daily that "the current decline is likely to be a technical adjustment rather than a long-term trend reversal". The author believes that in the short term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of further downside triggered by the selling crisis, but in the medium and long term, the market clearing may lay the foundation for a new cycle. Furthermore, if the Trump administration proposes crypto-related policies and the strategic Bitcoin bills are passed in various states in the US, it will undoubtedly bring unpredictable development to the entire crypto market.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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