Trump came to MarsBit (Crypto) to do only three things: make money, make money, and make fucking money!

You're late, brothers! The money in the crypto market has long been taken by Trump 90 years ago!

See? This is the new coin issued by MarsBit - $Trump!

Huang Siliang charges money to build a memorial archway, but Trump doesn't even need to wear pants to collect money!

Translate, translate, what do you call a surprise!

The surprise is that he shouts "crypto revolution" with his mouth, but holds a mouse trap in his hand and stuffs your liquidated chips in his pockets!

Buy the dips? What dips? The bottom has already been blown up into a mine pit by him!

Kill the heart and soul! Kill, and also kill the heart and soul!

—When the market crashes, it is the human heart that collapses even earlier than the price.

On March 4, 2025, the price of BTC fell below $83,000, and ETH fell to the $2,000 mark, with the entire crypto market losing over $300 billion in market value in a single day.

This crash not only reminds investors of the "BTC at $100,000" frenzy when Trump won the election in late 2024, but also unveils another side of the US crypto policy - an absurd drama woven by political manipulation, family interests, and market harvesting.

Since his 2024 campaign, Trump has positioned himself as a "crypto revolutionary", claiming he will promote BTC as a national strategic reserve, relax regulations, and "make America the global crypto capital". However, with the exposure of insider trading of his family token $TRUMP, the failure of policy promises, and the revelation of the "ATM" nature after the market crash, the crypto community's optimism is rapidly turning into anger and vigilance against political manipulation.

The Essence of Political Manipulation: Family Interests and the Crypto Harvesting Chain

Trump's crypto policy is not a technological revolution, but a carefully designed capital game. Its core logic is the "policy shilling - market pumping - family cashing out" harvesting chain, and the mastermind behind it is not Trump himself, but the crypto interest group behind his son Donald Trump Jr.

1. $TRUMP Token: Insider Trading and Wealth Transfer

In January 2025, the Trump family launched a personal meme coin $TRUMP, with their team controlling 80% of the token supply, and its market cap once exceeded $50 billion. On-chain data shows that multiple associated wallets made large purchases before the token launch, and sold after the policy boost was announced. As of the editorial deadline, TRUMP has plummeted from its high of $77 to the current $12, a drop of 85%.

This operation is highly synchronized with Trump's crypto policy statements:

- Before the policy boost was released: the family wallets pre-positioned;

- During the market pumping: Trump grandly announced the "crypto strategic reserve";

- Cashing out and leaving: policy details became vague, and the token crashed.

2. Policy Instrumentalization: The Lobbying Black Box of the Crypto Reserve List

Although BTC and ETH are seen as core reserve assets, the inclusion of tokens like XRP, SOL, and ADA has sparked a lot of controversy. Public information shows that the development teams of SOL and XRP have provided funding to Trump's "Mar-a-Lago" related funds, and invested considerable lobbying funds during his campaign. Meanwhile, the ADA Foundation has also been exposed to have reached a private agreement with Republican lawmakers, promising to promote legislation favorable to the token. This series of measures makes people suspect that Trump's move is more like a "tit-for-tat" political transaction, rather than a rational decision based on technical strength or market value, providing unprecedented "presidential-level promotion" for certain tokens.

This political intervention not only undermines the credibility of BTC as a reserve asset, but also makes the market question the fairness of the plan. Once crypto reserves become a tool for political games, their credibility will inevitably be damaged, and may even hinder the passage of the federal-level BTC reserve bill, plunging the entire plan into a dilemma.

Recommended Reading:The Big One is Coming! Trump Shills XRP, SOL, ADA, Crypto Assets to Skyrocket

3. Regulatory Relaxation: SEC's "Selective Enforcement"

After taking office, Trump's SEC withdrew lawsuits against exchanges like Coinbase and stopped investigating many crypto companies accused of securities fraud. This "regulatory relaxation" is not for the healthy development of the industry, but to clear obstacles for interest groups. For example, XRP is facing an SEC lawsuit, and policy support may directly help it avoid the "security" classification.

Marsbit Commentary: When crypto policy becomes a tool for family cashing out, the so-called "strategic reserve" is nothing more than a fig leaf for Wall Street and politicians to divide the spoils.

Meme-ification of the Crypto World: From "Innovation Wonderland" to "Harvesting Ruins"

Trump's crypto manipulation is pushing the crypto world towards meme-ification - a short-term bubble frenzy followed by a wasteland of collapsed faith.

1. Deterioration of Market Structure: Mouse Trap and Retail Slaughter

- Insider Information Arbitrage: Before the policy boost was announced, institutions and politically connected parties accumulated positions at low prices through the OTC market, with retail investors becoming the bag holders.

For example, SOL's on-chain large transfer volume increased by 300% a week before it was announced to be included in the reserve list.

- High Volatility Trap: The policy-driven surges and crashes have exacerbated market volatility. On March 2, after Trump announced the reserve plan, BTC's daily volatility reached 12%, while tokens like ADA saw volatility exceed 60%, far above the industry average. On Hyperliquid, multiple whales opened long positions worth hundreds of millions of dollars before Trump's announcement, and the contract positions of multiple exchanges surged, making one suspect if it was a mouse trap.

Recommended Reading:Recap of BTC's Single-Day Surge of $10,000, Turns Out to Be Futures Market Driven

2. Collapse of the Faith System: The "Decentralization" Myth of BTC Shattered

The original narrative of BTC as a "censorship-resistant asset" has been undermined by the US government's inclusion of it in the strategic reserve. The US Treasury Department, if holding a large amount of BTC, may manipulate the market through selling or regulatory intervention. For example, the US currently holds about 200,000 BTC (worth about $17 billion), enough to influence supply and demand through periodic releases.

3. Ecological Desertification: Proliferation of VC Coins and Meme Coins

Trump's policy bias has led capital to flow towards "politically correct" tokens, rather than technology innovation projects. For example, ADA has been packaged as a "compliant representative" due to its academic background, but the number of active developers on its chain has decreased by 40% in the past six months. At the same time, meme coins have proliferated again due to the demonstration effect of the Trump family, consuming funds that should have been used for infrastructure building.

Marsbit Commentary: When policy becomes the biggest source of Alpha, the crypto world has degenerated from "technology-driven" to "lobbying competition".

Bear Market Arrived? The Triple Death Spiral of the Crypto Market in 2025

Is the current market already in a bear market? The answer is the value correction after the "policy bull", but the downward momentum may far exceed expectations.

1. Liquidity Depletion: Illusion of Fed Rate Cuts and Deleveraging

- Tightening of macro liquidity: The Federal Reserve delayed rate cuts due to the rebound in inflation, causing the US dollar index to rise to 105, putting pressure on risk assets.

- On-chain leverage collapse: On March 4th, the total liquidation amount reached $100 million, and in the past 10 days, the cumulative liquidation volume in the crypto market has exceeded $10 billion, a new high since 2024. The liquidation volume of DeFi protocols accounted for more than 30%.

2. Unfulfilled Policy Expectations: "Paper Blueprint" of Crypto Reserves

Trump's crypto currency strategic reserve lacks a path to implementation:

- Funding dilemma: Data released by the US Treasury Department on February 12th shows that from October 2024 to January 2025, the first four months of fiscal year 2025, the US federal government's budget deficit reached $840 billion, the highest on record for the first four months of a fiscal year, exceeding the peak of fiscal spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to the same period in fiscal year 2024, the deficit expanded by $308 billion, an increase of 58%. Purchasing cryptocurrencies requires Congressional approval, but there is strong opposition within the Republican Party.

3. Geopolitical Backlash: Trade War and Dollar Credit Crisis

Trump's 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel have driven up manufacturing costs and exacerbated inflation, forcing investors to sell crypto assets to raise cash. Furthermore, the US's weaponization of cryptocurrencies has undermined the reserve status of the US dollar, and many countries are accelerating "de-dollarization", further damaging the fiat currency channel of the crypto market.

MarsBit Commentary: When the "Trump trade" recedes, the market realizes that the true support is not policy, but technological innovation and global consensus.

Survival Guide: How Retail Investors Can Navigate the "Trump Trap"

Faced with political manipulation and market chaos, investors need to return to the fundamentals and develop anti-fragile strategies:

1. Position Management: BTC as "Anti-Manipulation Hard Currency"

- Core position: Maintain at least 50% BTC position, as it is less affected by policy manipulation.

- Dollar-cost averaging: Increase positions in batches during market crashes, such as adding 5% when the price falls below $80,000, to average out the cost.

2. Trend Trading: "Quick In, Quick Out" of VC Coins and Meme Coins

- Realize gains on positive news: For example, sell XRP, SOL and other "privileged coins" within 24 hours of policy announcements.

- Strict stop-loss: Set a hard stop-loss of 10%-15% to avoid becoming a victim of insider trading.

3. Cross-Market Hedging: Combination of US Stocks, Gold, and Stablecoins

- US stock correlation: The crypto market has a 0.7 correlation with the Nasdaq, so shorting tech stocks can be used as a hedge.

- Gold as a safe haven: Allocate 5%-10% to gold ETFs (such as GLD) to hedge geopolitical risks.

Epilogue: The Ultimate Test of Crypto Idealism

Trump's crypto policy experiment has exposed the fatal flaw of the decentralized world - when the ruling elite capital and political power collude, is Satoshi Nakamoto's "peer-to-peer electronic cash" ideal destined to become a speculative toy? The answer may lie in whether the community can rebuild the consensus of "code is law", rather than placing the future on the Twitter declarations of political strongmen.