Odaily星球日报讯 ITR Economics 经济学家 Connor Lokar 表示，对关税将使美国陷入衰退的担忧可能被夸大了。“贸易在美国 GDP 中所占的比例并不大……美国是世界上最大的经济体，”他补充道，“规模很重要。”经济指标走软，再加上对关税负面影响的担忧，正在推动避险情绪，推低股市、美国国债收益率和美元。然而，Lokar 表示，美国经济最终将继续扩张，“但不确定性、价格以及由此产生的利率压力往往会拖累经济的增长速度。”（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 ITR Economics 经济学家 Connor Lokar 表示，对关税将使美国陷入衰退的担忧可能被夸大了。“贸易在美国 GDP 中所占的比例并不大……美国是世界上最大的经济体，”他补充道，“规模很重要。”经济指标走软，再加上对关税负面影响的担忧，正在推动避险情绪，推低股市、美国国债收益率和美元。然而，Lokar 表示，美国经济最终将继续扩张，“但不确定性、价格以及由此产生的利率压力往往会拖累经济的增长速度。”（金十）

机构：关税不太可能使美国陷入经济衰退

Odaily reports that ITR Economics economist Connor Lokar said concerns about tariffs pushing the US into recession may be exaggerated. "Trade makes up a relatively small portion of US GDP... the US is the world's largest economy," he added, "and scale matters." Soft economic indicators, coupled with concerns over the negative impact of tariffs, are driving risk-off sentiment, pushing down stock markets, US Treasury yields, and the US dollar. However, Lokar said the US economy will ultimately continue to expand, "but uncertainty, pricing, and the resulting interest rate pressures often weigh on the pace of economic growth." (Jinshi)

Tariffs unlikely to push U.S. into recession: agency

Odaily Odaily News reports that Federal Reserve's Williams stated that there is still great uncertainty about the development of tariffs, tariffs will have a certain impact on inflation, and will also affect market sentiment, which will drag down economic growth. Currently, the US economy is in good condition, the labor market has stabilized, and inflation has gradually slowed down. At present, he does not believe that the interest rate policy needs to be changed. (<金十>)

Fed's Williams: There is still great uncertainty about tariff developments, but does not see a need to change interest rate policy at this time

Odaily reported that Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College, said that Trump's tariff policy is the biggest shock to the US economy since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Economists generally believe that the act, by encouraging countries to erect trade barriers, exacerbated the Great Depression and led to a sharp decline in global economic activity. In response to the Trump administration's measures, Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs, and Mexico said it will unveil countermeasures on Sunday. Bethune warned that the new tariffs will disrupt supply chains and put US manufacturers with global operations in a difficult position. The direct impact of the new tariffs will be to suppress growth and push up inflation, creating a "stagflation effect". The US experienced stagflation in the 1970s, when economic stagnation and high inflation coexisted. Bethune suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates to address the current situation.

Boston College economics professor: The Fed should consider cutting interest rates to counter the negative impact of new tariffs

The various negative factors have converged at the worst moment, and the investors' complacency has disappeared, and they have finally begun to take Trump's tariff threats seriously.

Recently, Buffett called tariffs a "war act" that could further exacerbate inflation, and after digesting a lot of information in the past few weeks, the US stock market seems to agree with this view, with the stock market falling again on Monday (March 3).

After the US presidential election, experts had put forward many reasons why there was no need to worry that Trump would definitely do what he said, on the contrary, they believed that economic stimulus measures such as deregulation would become the most prominent...

Tariffs unlikely to push U.S. into recession: agency

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