Author: TechFlow

Bitcoin has fallen from a high of around $110,000 to below $80,000, and during this period the market has naturally had more crying than laughter. Amid the voices of "escaping the top, the end," the back-and-forth rhetoric from Trump has also plunged the market into a more desperate atmosphere.

While in terms of price, Bitcoin's current price of around $90,000 per coin is still relatively high, but according to CMC data, the current market Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 25, the market has entered the "panic" stage, and market sentiment has reached a low point in recent years.

Market Heavyweights: Don't Panic, the Bull is Still There

The market is in a panic, but heavyweight traders are posting feverishly, urging the market to remain calm and avoid panic selling their precious holdings.

Arthur Hayes in his new article 《KISS of Death》 mentions that Trump's series of political strategies are a double-edged sword for the crypto market. His highly dramatic decision-making is more likely to be amplified many times in the crypto market, which can both mobilize market sentiment and lead the market into fallacy. But looking at Trump's past business behavior, this stimulating economic behavior may be difficult for the market to digest, but it is a long-term positive for the rise of various assets (including Bitcoin), so staying calm and buying the dips is the currently higher probability participation method.

Lao Mao in his article 《I've Drunk This Milk, You Can Do Whatever You Want!》 also stated that this round of the Bull market appears more conservative compared to the previous "frenzy", and the rise of Bitcoin has not been particularly impressive. At the same time, the impending global large-scale easing and the power of the Trump administration's "cryptocurrency reserve" policy have not yet been fully manifested, and the long-term indicators also show that the Bear market has not arrived, and the current situation is still within the reasonable range of the Bull market.

Yes, beyond the clamorous noise in the market, there are many reference indicators that can help investors stay calm. In this moment of panic, perhaps these indicators can help you get out of the emotional vortex and see the true state of the market.

Market Indicators: Bitcoin Has Not Yet Reached the Top

The good news is that in the "Bull Market Top Signal List" compiled by coinglass, 30 relevant data indicators all show that the market has not yet reached the top, and even strongly suggest that you should hold on to your assets at this time.

Let's take a look at how some of the widely used indicators are saying.

1. Bitcoin Ahr999 Indicator

Created by Weibo user ahr999, also known as the "9 God Indicator", it is an indicator used to guide Bitcoin DCA (dollar-cost averaging).

The calculation formula is (current price² / 200-day cost / fitted forecast price), used to guide Bitcoin DCA.

Threshold: Less than 0.45 is buy the dips, 0.45-1.2 is DCA, 1.2-5 is waiting for takeoff, ≥ 4 may be approaching the top.

Current Value: 0.92

Judgment: Currently in the Bitcoin DCA range (0.45-1.2), indicating that the market has not reached the top or bottom, and there is still upside potential, tending to be in the early or middle stage of the Bull market.

1. AHR999x Top Escape Indicator

• Definition: A variant of AHR999 based on its reciprocal, the formula is 3/AHR999.

• Threshold: ≤ 0.45 may be the top.

• Current Value: 3.28

• Judgment: The current value is far above the threshold, not at the top, the indicator shows that it is still in the Bull market.

1. PI Cycle Indicator

Historically, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has effectively pinpointed the market cycle top within 3 days.

It uses the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMA x 2, where the multiple is the price value of 350DMA, not the number of days).

• Threshold: Current price ≥ $149,567 may be approaching the top.

• Current Value: $89,913

• Judgment: Far below the threshold, indicating that the top has not been reached, and it is still in the upward phase.

1. Puell Multiple

• Definition: The ratio of a miner's daily revenue to the 365-day average, reflecting miner selling pressure, calculated as (daily miner revenue / 365-day moving average miner revenue).

• Threshold: ≥ 2.2 may be approaching the top.

• Current Value: 1.05

• Judgment: The current value is below the threshold, indicating low miner selling pressure, and the indicator shows that the current market is still in the Bull market.

1. Rainbow Chart

• Definition: Bitcoin price range based on logarithmic regression, divided into 1-9 levels, with 9 being extremely overvalued.

• Threshold: ≥ 5 may be approaching the top.

• Current Value: 3

• Judgment: In the middle to low range, indicating that the market has not overheated and is still within the reasonable range of the Bull market.

1. Bitcoin-MVRV Z-Score

• Definition: The standardized score of the MVRV ratio, measuring market valuation.

• Threshold: ≥ 5 indicates overvaluation, may be the top.

• Current Value: 1.98

• Judgment: Below the threshold, the market has not overheated, and the indicator shows that the current market is still in the Bull market.

1. USDT Spot Lending Yield

• Definition: The annualized yield of USDT lending products, reflecting the market cost of capital.

• Threshold: ≥ 29% indicates tight capital, may be the top.

• Current Value: 6.1%

• Judgment: Far below the threshold, capital is loose, supporting the Bull market.

1. Altcoin Season Index

• Definition: The Altcoin Season Index is also one of the most widely used indices for market Bull/Bear reference. By comparing the performance of Altcoins and Bitcoin, if most Altcoins outperform Bitcoin, it can be considered that the "Altcoin Season" has arrived. Although this Bull market is different from the past, the traditional Altcoin Season may not recur, but as an indicator that has been validated multiple times in the long-term cycle, it is still relatively recognized by the market.

• Threshold: ≥ 75 indicates Altcoin Season, may be late Bull market.

• Current Value: 18.00

• Judgment: Far below the threshold, Bitcoin is dominant, the indicator shows that the current market is still in the early or middle stage of the Bull market.

• Definition: The percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization that Bitcoin accounts for, which has remained between 50%-60% over the past year.

• Threshold: ≥ 65% may signal a strong Bitcoin top.

• Current Value: 60.21%

• Judgment: Approaching but not reaching the threshold, Bitcoin is dominant but not at the top yet.

1. Bitcoin Reserve Risk

• Definition: A measure of holder confidence and opportunity cost.

• Threshold: ≥ 0.005 may signal a top.

• Current Value: 0.0023

• Judgment: Below the threshold, holder confidence is high, indicating a bullish signal.

1. Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)

• Definition: The percentage of unrealized profits or losses.

• Threshold: ≥ 70% may signal a top.

• Current Value: 50.27%

• Judgment: Below the threshold, more than half of Bitcoin holdings are profitable but not overheated, still in a bullish uptrend.

1. CBBI Index (Crypto Bubble Burst Indicator)

• Definition: The CBBI index is a comprehensive Bitcoin market cycle indicator, composed of the Mayer Multiple, Stock-to-Flow Ratio, 200-week Moving Average, Pi Cycle Top Indicator, Golden Ratio Multiplier, 2-year MA Multiplier, Generalized Valuation Indicator, and Logarithmic Growth Curve. It helps investors more accurately determine the stage of the Bitcoin market cycle.

• Threshold: ≥ 90 may signal a top.

• Current Value: 73

• Judgment: Approaching but not reaching the threshold, indicating bullish momentum but not overheated.

1. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple

• Definition: The Mayer Multiple is a Bitcoin technical indicator created by Trace Mayer, which evaluates the market state by comparing the current price to the 200-day moving average. The unique feature of this indicator is its ability to quickly reflect the market's valuation level, making it an important tool for judging Bitcoin's bull-bear cycles. Mayer Multiple = Current Price / 200-day Moving Average

• Threshold: ≥ 2.2 may signal a top.

• Current Value: 1.05

• Judgment: Far below the threshold, not overheated, the indicator shows the current market is still in a bull market.

Additional Bull Market Top Indicator Infographic:

Signals Point to Bull, but Caution is Advised

Based on the various indicators, Bitcoin is currently still in a bull market phase. A single indicator may not be fully reliable, but multiple indicators collectively suggesting a "bull market is still ongoing" can provide a sense of reassurance in the volatile market environment.

In terms of practical operations, gradually dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin while referencing the indicators and market sentiment may be the most prudent approach. After all, considering the market conditions over the past year, this bull market is no longer a simple "rising tide lifts all boats" scenario. There is a persistent trend of players not supporting each other, and a dominant narrative, as well as the phenomenon of "popular Altcoins not following Bitcoin's dips, and obscure Altcoins not following Bitcoin's rises." Unexpected black swan events have also occurred multiple times in a very short period, so relying solely on indicators or others' market advice may not be as "brilliant" as before.

Keeping pace with the market rhythm and flexibly responding to daily changes is the key to surviving this unique bull market.