In early March, the cryptocurrency market seemed to have entered the "crypto observation elevator" personally served by Trump, experiencing a sudden surge and weightlessness. From the "strategic reserve plan" to the rumor of "zero capital gains tax", and then to the plunge caused by the tariff policy, the market has been oscillating between hope and despair.
The first White House Cryptocurrency Summit, which is scheduled to be held on March 8, is seen as a key turning point in determining the short-term fate of the market.
How will Trump's policy moves, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the US government's debt issues affect the market after the crypto summit?
I. Trump's "Crypto Policy Combination Punch": The Collision of Idealism and the Constitutional Iron Wall
1. Zero Capital Gains Tax: A Power Game Between the President and Congress
On March 4, Mike Alfred, the founder of the digital asset investment platform Eaglebrook, revealed on social media that the Trump administration plans to announce the exemption of cryptocurrency sales from capital gains tax at the summit. The news caused a brief market frenzy, but was soon met with a cold shower from legal experts. Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, said bluntly: "The president has no unilateral power to amend the tax law, which is the power granted to Congress by the Constitution. Even if Trump signs an executive order, its effect is equivalent to declaring himself a cupcake."
Key Contradiction: Low Possibility of Policy Implementation. Amending US tax law requires Congressional approval, and the Democratic-controlled Senate is likely to block such proposals.
- Short-term Emotional Speculation: Despite the obvious legal obstacles, the market may still view the "policy vision" as a positive, driving speculative buying. For example, after Trump previously announced the inclusion of 5 cryptocurrencies in the national strategic reserve, the related currencies surged more than 10% in a single day, with their market value increasing by $300 billion, although the gains were given back the next day due to the tariff policy.
2. Strategic Reserve Plan: National Endorsement vs. Asset Bubble Risk
Trump's "Cryptocurrency Strategic Reserve" is seen as a landmark move by the US to seize the lead in the crypto field. The first batch of BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, and ADA included in the reserve surged, but the market soon realized:
- Selective Support Causes Controversy: Some of the projects in the reserve list (such as XRP and SOL) lack the decentralized characteristics of Bitcoin, and are more like political backing of specific technologies.
- Liquidity Vortex Effect: If the US Treasury Department purchases cryptocurrencies through the foreign exchange stabilization fund, it may squeeze the investment space of retail and institutional investors, raising concerns about "state-owned control".
II. Market Script After the Summit: Four Potential Directions
1. "Pie in the Sky Frenzy": Zero Tax Rate Ignites FOMO Sentiment
Assumption: Trump boldly promises to push for a tax-free policy at the summit and releases more regulatory relaxation signals (such as easing ETF approval). The market's positive response will lead to a short-term surge, with retail and institutional investors pouring in, and BTC may break through the $100,000 mark, with Meme coins and AI concept coins following the trend.
- Risk Awareness: The uncertainty of policy implementation is high, and if the Congressional proposal is rejected, the market will face a cliff-like plunge due to "unmet expectations", similar to the 9% single-day plunge in Bitcoin on March 4.
2. "Pragmatic Positive News": Clarification of Regulatory Framework Replaces Tax-Free Gimmicks
Assumption: The summit focuses on formulating clear regulatory rules (such as stablecoin issuance standards and exchange compliance guidelines), rather than empty slogans.
- Institutional Capital Enters the Market: Regulatory transparency will attract traditional financial institutions to increase their allocations, such as banks and sovereign wealth funds have already started to increase their holdings of cryptocurrency ETFs.
- Differentiation of Value Coins: Mainstream coins like BTC and ETH will benefit from long-term confidence boost, while altcoins without real use cases may continue to sink.
3. "Black Swan Attack": Fed Rate Hikes + Debt Crisis Double Whammy
Fed Policy Shift: If Trump's tariff policy drives up inflation, the Fed may be forced to maintain high interest rates, suppressing the liquidity of the crypto market.
- Debt Bomb Explosion: US federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, and the high-interest rate environment exacerbates debt repayment pressure. If the market loses confidence in the US dollar's credit, the "digital gold" narrative of Bitcoin may regain dominance, driving safe-haven buying.
4. "Family Interest Scandal": Trump-Related Project Manipulation Triggers Trust Crisis
The Trump family has been repeatedly exposed to have financial interests in cryptocurrency projects. For example:
- World Liberty Financial: A DeFi project associated with the Trump family bought tens of millions of dollars worth of ETH after the crash on Ethereum, which was suspected of insider trading.
- Meme Coins: The $TRUMP and $MELANIA coins issued by the Trump couple have already dropped 80% in two months, and the white bones under the spotlight are the true nature of these crypto projects.
Celebration or Trap? The "Final Lesson" for Retail Investors
Trump's crypto policy is like his business reality show routine: first the "crypto reserve pie" to attract traffic, then the tax-free policy to create buzz, but the constitutional iron wall and debt crisis behind the scenes are the real directors. For retail investors, the biggest revelation of the summit may be: in the game between policy and the market, the only unchanging truth is "don't believe everything you hear". Keep your wallet closed and wait for Congress and the Fed to reveal their bottom cards, which may be more in line with the way to survive than blindly chasing the "Trump market".
