Introduction: The New Order of the Cryptocurrency Market in the Trump Era

In 2025, the global financial market is experiencing new changes. Trump has returned to the White House, continuing his consistent economic nationalist policies, including imposing tariffs, reshaping supply chains, and strengthening the US dollar hegemony. At the same time, with the growing US fiscal deficit, the global "de-dollarization" trend, and the rise of the crypto asset market worldwide, the Trump administration's attitude towards cryptocurrencies is undergoing significant changes. Against this backdrop, the concept of a crypto asset strategic reserve is gradually emerging and becoming a focus of market attention.

This report will delve into the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on the global financial market, as well as how the potential crypto asset strategic reserve plan may affect the market performance of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Furthermore, we will analyze the potential changes in regulatory policies, the asset allocation strategies of institutional investors, and the future development of the overall crypto market.

I. The Macroeconomic Background of Trump's Economic Policies and the Crypto Market

1.1 Tariff Policy: Reshaping the Global Economic Order and Impacting Capital Markets

Trump's economic policy has always been centered on "America First," a strategy that has not only affected the domestic economic landscape of the US but also profoundly changed the operation of the global capital market and financial system. The Trump administration implemented a series of major economic policies during 2017-2021, including large-scale tax cuts, aggressive trade wars, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and control of US dollar liquidity. These policies have driven short-term economic growth in the US, but also led to a long-term increase in fiscal deficits and instability in the international economy. In 2025, after Trump's re-election, the market generally expects his administration to continue or even strengthen its past economic policies, particularly in areas such as tariff policy, US dollar strategy, fiscal stimulus, regulatory environment, and global capital flows, all of which will have a profound impact on the crypto market.

Against the backdrop of an increasingly decentralized global economic system, the crypto market has gradually become an important part of the international financial system. Mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum are not only viewed as investment targets, but also as assets to hedge against US dollar risks for some countries and institutions. The application of stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) in international trade settlement is also increasing, driving the digitization of the US dollar. Trump's economic policies will have a far-reaching impact on these trends. His tariff policy may accelerate the global allocation of capital to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, US dollar liquidity management will affect the capital supply in the crypto market, US regulatory policies will determine the legality and development space of the crypto market, and Trump's potential crypto asset strategic reserve plan is more likely to trigger a global market revolution.

One of the core economic policies of the Trump administration is its highly aggressive trade policy. During 2018-2019, the outbreak of the US-China trade war led to a major restructuring of the global supply chain and significant changes in capital flows. Facing the new economic situation in 2025, Trump is likely to restart the trade war, imposing tariffs on China, the European Union, Japan, and other economies, in an attempt to re-establish the competitiveness of US manufacturing through external pressure. The direct consequence of this policy will be an increase in the uncertainty of the international capital market, and global investors seeking safe-haven assets, with decentralized assets like Bitcoin potentially becoming a new safe-haven tool. In fact, during the most intense period of the trade war in 2019, Bitcoin prices soared from $3,000 to $13,000, and the market generally believed that capital was flowing into the crypto market while avoiding traditional market risks. The escalation of the trade war in 2025 may once again drive similar capital flow trends, especially in the context of a weakened US dollar credit system, which could further strengthen the appeal of Bitcoin.

In addition to the impact of the trade war on the global capital market, the Trump administration's fiscal policy is also an important factor affecting the crypto market. Trump had implemented large-scale tax cuts in 2017, reducing corporate tax rates and increasing the government's fiscal deficit. In 2025, Trump may adopt similar measures to stimulate US economic growth, including further corporate tax cuts, large-scale infrastructure investment, and increased military spending. These policies may boost the US economy in the short term, but they will also exacerbate fiscal deficits and put pressure on the US dollar credit system. The increase in fiscal deficits usually means that the government needs to fill the funding gap through debt issuance or monetary easing policies. If the market expects the Federal Reserve to resume quantitative easing (QE) in the future, the increase in market liquidity will often be positive for Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In fact, the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve during 2020-2021 was one of the driving forces behind the Bitcoin bull market. Therefore, if the Trump administration pushes for a new round of fiscal stimulus, and the Federal Reserve is forced to some extent to accommodate a relaxation of monetary policy, the market may welcome a new round of crypto asset appreciation.

1.2 US Dollar Liquidity and the Cyclical Relationship with the Crypto Market

As the global reserve currency, the status of the US dollar may change under the Trump administration's policies. Trump had expressed dissatisfaction with the strong US dollar during his first term, believing that the high valuation of the US dollar has harmed the competitiveness of US manufacturing. In 2025, the Trump administration may take measures to promote the depreciation of the US dollar in order to boost exports and reduce trade deficits. If the trend of US dollar depreciation is established, global investors may seek other assets to hedge against the risk of US dollar depreciation, and Bitcoin, gold, and other safe-haven assets may become new destinations for capital inflows. Particularly on a global scale, some countries have already begun to explore the de-dollarization process, with Russia and China reducing their dependence on the US dollar in international trade, and Middle Eastern countries also experimenting with using the renminbi or other currencies for oil settlements. If the Trump administration's policies accelerate the de-dollarization process, the global demand for decentralized assets like Bitcoin may further increase, driving the crypto market into a new stage of development.

The US domestic crypto regulatory policy may undergo significant changes in the Trump era. During his first term, Trump's attitude towards crypto assets was relatively ambiguous, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin repeatedly expressing a desire to strengthen the regulation of the crypto market to prevent assets like Bitcoin from being used for illegal transactions. However, in the 2024 election process, Trump and his allies began to express a more positive attitude towards crypto assets, believing that Bitcoin and blockchain technology can bring new financial innovations and economic growth opportunities to the US. In 2025, the Trump administration may adjust the US crypto regulatory framework, such as reducing the tax burden on crypto assets, relaxing legal restrictions on crypto transactions and investments, and supporting the further development of financial products like Bitcoin ETFs. If these policies are implemented, it will bring tremendous growth opportunities to the US crypto market, and also have a demonstrative effect on the global market, prompting other countries to adjust their attitudes towards the crypto market.

It is worth noting that the Trump administration may push for the establishment of a "Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve Program" to incorporate cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin into the national-level reserve system. The proposal of this policy may be based on multiple factors, including combating the credit risk of the US dollar, seizing the dominant position in the global crypto market, and ensuring the US's leading advantage in the digital asset field in international competition. If the US government decides to hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, Bitcoin will face unprecedented market recognition and may become an important part of the global financial system. The impact of this policy will go far beyond the entry of any ETF or institutional investment, as it signifies the formal recognition of Bitcoin at the sovereign state level and may trigger a global follow-up by other countries.

1.3 Institutional Investors' Reallocation of the Crypto Market

In recent years, the acceptance of crypto assets by institutional investors has gradually increased. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the entry of large financial institutions, crypto assets have gradually become a part of traditional investment portfolios. If the Trump administration pushes forward the Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve and relaxes the restrictions on institutional investors holding crypto assets, the market structure will undergo a major change. In the long run, this may lead to mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum entering more national-level and institutional-level investment portfolios, driving further maturation of the market.

Overall, the Trump administration's economic policies will have a profound impact on the crypto market. The trade war may accelerate the flow of capital into crypto assets, the fiscal deficit and US dollar depreciation may increase the demand for Bitcoin, and the adjustment of the regulatory environment may further promote the development of the US crypto market. If the Trump administration ultimately pushes for the Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve program, Bitcoin may face a historic institutional recognition, fundamentally changing the global financial system. In this process, the market needs to closely monitor the specific policy direction of the Trump administration and the reaction of the global capital market to these policies, in order to grasp the future development opportunities of the crypto market.

II. Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve: Policy Background and Potential Impact

2.1 Policy Background of the US Government Promoting Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve

After being re-elected in 2025, the core of the Trump administration's economic policy still revolves around "America First," which not only means re-examining the global reserve currency status of the US dollar, but may also mean that the government is beginning to consider diversifying its national reserves to hedge against the credit risk of the US dollar. For a long time, the US dollar as the main global reserve currency has given the US unparalleled influence in the global financial system. However, in recent years, with the rise in the US debt level, the expansion of the fiscal deficit, the adjustment of interest rate policies, and the questioning of the US dollar's dominant position by various countries, the reserve status of the US dollar is being challenged.

On the one hand, the US government's fiscal deficit problem has become a focus of global market attention. Since 2020, the US government debt level has continued to soar, reaching over $34 trillion by the end of 2024, and is still growing rapidly. This has weakened market confidence in the long-term value of the US dollar, prompting countries to explore reserve assets other than the US dollar. After taking office, the Trump administration may further exacerbate the fiscal deficit problem in order to push for more fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment. If the market expects an increased risk of US dollar depreciation, global central banks may accelerate the adjustment of their reserve asset allocation, and decentralized assets such as Bitcoin may become an alternative choice outside the US dollar.

On the other hand, the acceleration of the de-dollarization process has also made the US government need to rethink how to maintain its financial hegemony. In recent years, many countries around the world have been reducing their dependence on the US dollar in international trade settlements, such as Russia and China gradually shifting to local currency settlements, and countries like the UAE and India exploring the use of the renminbi or other currencies for oil trade settlements. This trend has weakened the global influence of the US dollar, forcing the US government to take new measures to ensure its dominant position in the global financial system. If the Trump administration views the Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve as a new global financial strategic tool, Bitcoin may be officially incorporated into the US official reserve system as a potential weapon to hedge against the de-dollarization of the global financial system.

In addition, the Trump administration's attitude towards the cryptocurrency market is also gradually changing. Although Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin in 2019, calling it "based on thin air, with no real value," his stance has clearly changed during the 2024 election campaign. On the one hand, Trump's team has gradually recognized the potential of crypto assets in the future financial system and tried to seek the support of the crypto industry; on the other hand, US institutional investors have significantly increased their Bitcoin holdings in the past few years, with institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity launching Bitcoin spot ETFs and attracting billions of dollars in inflows. In this context, the US government may realize that Bitcoin is no longer a marginalized asset class, but is becoming an important part of the global financial system. If the US government wants to occupy a dominant position in this market, establishing a "Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve" may be a strategic choice that serves its national interests.

2.2 Potential Impact of the Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve

First, this policy may greatly change the market's perception of the value of Bitcoin and drive Bitcoin prices into a completely new valuation system. The current market pricing logic for Bitcoin is still based on its scarcity (21 million total supply), inflation-hedging properties, and its role in the digital economy. However, if the US government officially incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserves, it means that Bitcoin will transition from an "alternative asset" to a "national-level reserve asset," and its market perception will undergo a fundamental change. For decades, gold has been an important component of global central bank reserves, and if Bitcoin is incorporated into the same system, its market valuation may experience exponential growth. The current global gold market size is about $13 trillion, while the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is only about $1 trillion. If Bitcoin is endowed with a reserve function similar to gold, its market value may reach at least 30-50% of the gold market, i.e., over $4-6 trillion, corresponding to a Bitcoin price of over $20,000. This means that the policy decision of the US government will directly affect the long-term value of Bitcoin and may trigger a new round of bull market.

Secondly, the implementation of this policy will have a subtle impact on the global reserve currency status of the US dollar. Traditionally, the US dollar has been able to become the main global reserve currency mainly due to the strength of the US economy, the global coverage of US dollar liquidity, and the stability of US dollar-denominated assets (such as US Treasuries). However, if the US government begins to incorporate Bitcoin into its reserves, this may send a signal to the market that the US government itself is also considering the credit risk of the US dollar and trying to hedge it through Bitcoin. This may exacerbate market concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar and prompt other countries to also adjust their reserve structures, leading more central banks to hold Bitcoin. Once this trend forms, it may weaken the global dominance of the US dollar and accelerate the multi-polarization of the global financial system.

At the same time, the US government's holding of Bitcoin may also have an impact on the global geopolitical landscape. Currently, some countries have already tried to incorporate Bitcoin into their national financial strategies, such as El Salvador becoming the world's first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 and gradually increasing its national Bitcoin reserves. In addition, countries like Russia and Iran are also exploring the use of Bitcoin for international trade settlements to avoid Western financial sanctions. If the US government takes the lead in action and incorporates Bitcoin into its national reserve system, other countries may have to make corresponding adjustments to avoid being in a passive position in the future global financial system competition. This may lead to a "national-level Bitcoin reserve race" globally, thereby affecting the global financial landscape.

Finally, this policy may also trigger a chain reaction in the regulatory environment of the domestic crypto market in the United States. Currently, the regulation of the crypto market in the US remains relatively uncertain, with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) having differences over the regulatory jurisdiction of crypto assets. However, if the US government decides to include Bitcoin in the national reserve, it means that the legal status of Bitcoin may be officially established, and it will drive the further clarification of the relevant regulatory framework. This may provide a clearer compliance path for the US crypto market, attract more institutional capital into the market, and further accelerate the mainstream adoption of Bitcoin.

In summary, the US government's implementation of the "Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve" is not only a major shock to the global financial system, but it may also fundamentally change the market positioning of Bitcoin and affect the direction of global capital flows. The implementation of this policy may cause significant market volatility in the short term, but in the long run, it may become a milestone event in the development history of Bitcoin, driving the global financial system into a new era.

III. Future Market Outlook and Investment Strategies

3.1 Long-term Trends and Future Outlook of the Crypto Market

The development path of the crypto market can be analyzed from multiple perspectives, including macroeconomic trends, policy environment, market structure changes, and technological progress. The policies of the Trump administration may become a catalyst for a new round of bull market, but its long-term impact will depend on multiple variables, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the evolution of the de-dollarization process, the participation of institutional investors, and the policy orientation of emerging markets.

First, changes in the global financial environment will be a key factor affecting the long-term trend of the crypto market. Currently, the global economy is facing a series of challenges, such as de-globalization, inflationary pressures, interest rate uncertainty, and geopolitical conflicts. These factors may prompt more investors to view Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. Historical experience shows that in periods of rising global uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets such as gold tend to be favored by the market, and Bitcoin is gradually acquiring similar safe-haven functions. If the US government officially recognizes Bitcoin's status as a reserve asset, Bitcoin will further gain market trust and may replace a portion of gold's market share.

Secondly, the participation of institutional investors will be an important variable in determining the future market size of Bitcoin. In recent years, with the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, traditional financial institutions have begun to enter the crypto market on a large scale. For example, the Bitcoin ETF products of giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have attracted billions of dollars in inflows, and if the US government establishes a "Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve", more sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and central banks may accelerate their Bitcoin allocation. This will further promote the maturity of the Bitcoin market, gradually transforming it from a high-volatility asset to a stable value storage tool.

In addition, the acceleration of the global de-dollarization process will also have a profound impact on the crypto market. Currently, economies including China, Russia, Iran, and India are actively exploring de-dollarization paths to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. If Bitcoin becomes part of the US government's reserve assets, other countries around the world may have to re-evaluate their attitudes towards Bitcoin. Some countries may follow suit and increase the proportion of Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, while others may choose to restrict Bitcoin transactions to maintain the stability of their domestic currencies. This policy game will directly affect the global liquidity of Bitcoin and may create arbitrage opportunities in certain markets.

3.2 Investment Strategies and Market Opportunity Analysis

Against the backdrop of profound changes in market structure, investors need to adjust their strategies to adapt to the new market environment. Whether individual investors or institutional investors, they need to consider how to optimize asset allocation in the new financial landscape and identify the most promising investment opportunities.

First, the investment logic of Bitcoin will change. In the past, Bitcoin was mainly seen as a high-risk, high-return speculative asset, but in the future, it may be more widely regarded as a "digital gold" or "central bank reserve asset". This means that the price volatility of Bitcoin may gradually decrease, and long-term Bitcoin holders will enjoy stable value growth. For investors, adopting a "long-term holding" (HODL) strategy may be the best way to cope with market changes, especially in the case of government policy support, the long-term value of Bitcoin will be better protected.

Secondly, structural arbitrage opportunities in the market may increase. As governments around the world adopt different policies towards Bitcoin, there may be differences in regulatory environments across markets, leading to price disparities. For example, if some countries strictly restrict Bitcoin transactions, while the US government actively promotes a Bitcoin reserve plan, the global Bitcoin prices may diverge significantly, and savvy investors can take advantage of these differences to conduct cross-market arbitrage trades.

Furthermore, the role of the derivatives market will be further strengthened. Currently, the Bitcoin futures and options markets are relatively mature, and with the entry of institutional investors, the demand for risk management of Bitcoin will further increase. In the future, we may see more complex financial instruments being introduced into the crypto market, such as Bitcoin-based bonds and structured products. For professional investors, using these tools for risk hedging and yield optimization will be an important trend in the future market.

On the other hand, in addition to Bitcoin, the market opportunities of other crypto assets are also worth noting. Although Bitcoin may become the main national reserve asset, the ecosystems of platforms like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are still rapidly developing. If government and institutional capital begins to enter the crypto market on a large scale, these assets may also benefit. Particularly in the areas of decentralized finance (DeFi) and tokenized real-world assets (RWA), there may be new market opportunities in the future. For example, some countries may explore blockchain-based government bond issuance or use smart contract technology to optimize financial transaction processes, and these trends may create new investment opportunities for investors.

3.3 Risk Factors and Coping Strategies

Although the policies of the Trump administration may bring long-term benefits to the crypto market, investors still need to be aware of potential risk factors and develop corresponding coping strategies.

First, policy uncertainty remains one of the biggest risks in the market. Although the Trump administration may support the Crypto Asset Strategic Reserve, the implementation of this policy still depends on various factors, including congressional approval, the attitude of the Federal Reserve, the cooperation of the Treasury Department, and the reactions of other countries around the world. If the policy implementation is hindered, the market may experience significant volatility. Therefore, investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

Secondly, market liquidity risk is also an important consideration factor. Although the Bitcoin market has become much more mature than in the past, its liquidity is still relatively low compared to traditional financial markets. If governments or large institutions suddenly adjust their Bitcoin holdings, the market may experience violent fluctuations. Therefore, investors should avoid over-leveraged trading and adopt a phased buying or selling strategy during periods of high market volatility to reduce the impact of market shocks.

In addition, geopolitical factors may also affect the crypto market. As global competition between countries intensifies, some countries may take measures to curb the use of Bitcoin. For example, China has strengthened the regulation of cryptocurrencies several times in recent years, and if the US government promotes the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan, other countries may take corresponding countermeasures. Investors need to consider this possibility and ensure the diversification of their investment portfolios to mitigate the risks of specific policy changes.

Finally, technological risks remain a major challenge in the crypto market. Although the Bitcoin network itself is highly secure, the entire crypto industry still faces risks such as smart contract vulnerabilities, exchange security issues, and hacker attacks. Investors need to choose trading platforms with higher security, and take appropriate security measures, such as using cold wallets to store assets and diversifying investments across different asset classes, to reduce potential technological risks.

IV. Conclusion

Against the backdrop of major changes in the global financial system, whether the US government will officially include cryptocurrencies such as USDT in the national strategic reserves has become a focus of market attention. With the shift in the Trump administration's attitude towards cryptocurrencies and the accelerated de-dollarization process globally, the possibility of establishing a "cryptocurrency strategic reserve" is gradually increasing. If this policy is implemented, it will be one of the most disruptive changes in the global financial system in a century, and may have far-reaching impacts on the reserve status of the US dollar, financial geopolitics between countries, market liquidity, sovereign currency competition patterns, and the perceived value of USDT. Therefore, we need to deeply explore the potential motives, policy context, global macro environment, and potential widespread impacts on the market of the Trump administration's promotion of this policy.

Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's promotion of the "cryptocurrency strategic reserve" concept, the global financial market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. USDT and other cryptocurrencies are transforming from speculative investment products to potential national-level reserve assets, and are gradually establishing their core position in the global financial system. This trend will not only affect the cryptocurrency market itself, but also have far-reaching impacts on the global reserve currency status of the US dollar, traditional financial markets, sovereign monetary systems, and the investment strategies of institutions and individuals, and the cryptocurrency market is currently in a critical stage of policy dividends and market challenges. If the US government officially includes cryptocurrencies in the strategic reserves, core assets such as USDT and ETH will usher in unprecedented development opportunities.

We recommend that investors closely monitor policy changes and seek the best investment opportunities in market volatility. The Trump administration's proposal of a "cryptocurrency strategic reserve" may become a key node in the transformation of the global financial system, and drive the USDT market into a new stage of development. For investors, this policy may bring unprecedented market opportunities, but also greater uncertainty. In the future market environment, long-term holding of USDT, focusing on policy dynamics, utilizing market arbitrage opportunities, optimizing portfolio structure, and managing market risks will be the keys to successful investment. As the global financial system evolves, cryptocurrencies will become an increasingly important asset class, and investors who can accurately grasp the trends will gain the greatest benefits in this transformation.