As the development of US cryptocurrency policy, especially the influence of Trump, there are multiple potential opportunities in the market. This article will delve into the structure, core meaning and potential market impact of these projects. This article is from MarsBit article, compiled and translated by PANews.
(Background: Trump Turns Around Again! Postpone Tariffs on Some Goods from Canada and Mexico, Nvidia Plunges 5.7% and US Stocks Plummet, Policy Flip-Flops Undermine Investor Confidence)
(Supplementary Background: Fed Governor Waller: No Rate Cut in March, Watching Trump's Tariff War Impact on Inflation, Will Consider Later This Year)
I. Structure and Core Meaning
The following diagram shows several key beneficiary factors of US cryptocurrency policy:
1. ETF Applications: The green area, ETFs are an important tool in the traditional financial market, and the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs indicates that these projects have gained greater acceptance among institutional investors and the mainstream financial market. The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in 2024 has proven the driving force of ETFs on market prices and adoption.
2. Blockchain Projects Attend White House: The red area, this category indicates that these projects may have participated in direct dialogue or policy-making activities with the US government. White House attention usually means these projects are significant in terms of regulatory compliance, technical applications (such as supply chain management, decentralized identity) or national strategic level.
3. Mentioned by Trump (Trump mentioned): The orange area, Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has shifted from criticism to support in recent years, especially during the 2024 election campaign, when he publicly supported cryptocurrencies and launched his own NFT project and MEME coin. Projects mentioned by Trump may gain market attention and short-term price momentum due to the celebrity effect.
4. Cryptocurrency projects based in the US (Made in USA): Orange area. They may have natural advantages in policy support, especially in the context of the US-China technology competition.
II. The Meaning of the Overlapping Regions
Dual Overlap Region: Projects appear in both categories, indicating that they have advantages in multiple aspects. For example, BTC (Bitcoin) and ETH (Ethereum) are both in the "ETF Application" and "Trump Mentioned" regions, showing their dual benefits in policy support and public attention.
Triple Overlap Region: Located in the center of the chart, including SOL (Solana), XRP (Ripple), and ADA (Cardano). These projects meet the three conditions of "ETF Application", "White House Involvement", and "Trump Mention", and are the biggest potential beneficiaries of US cryptocurrency policy.
III. Specific Project Classification and Analysis
1. Triple Benefit Projects (Central Region: ETF + White House + Trump Mention)
These projects are in the overlapping part of the three regions, and are the "core winners" of policy support.
SOL (Solana):
Background: Solana is a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain, known for its high throughput and low transaction costs, and is one of the main competitors to Ethereum.
Analysis: Solana's presence in the central region indicates that it is highly focused on in US policy making, may be applying for an ETF, and has also gained Trump's recognition. Solana's high performance makes it widely used in DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and NFT (Non-Fungible Token) fields, which may have attracted government interest, especially with its leading advantage in MEME coins, gaining a larger share of on-chain active users.
XRP (Ripple):
Background: Ripple is mainly used for cross-border payments, and its token XRP has long been in legal disputes with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) (since 2020).
Analysis: XRP's presence in the central region may indicate that its legal issues are being resolved, or that its position at the policy level has been elevated. If the SEC's attitude towards cryptocurrencies becomes more relaxed in 2024, and XRP can pass the ETF application, it may see a large influx of capital.
ADA (Cardano):
Background: Cardano is a blockchain project that emphasizes academic research and layered architecture, known for its scientific approach and sustainability.
Analysis: Cardano's position in the central region indicates that it has gained more recognition in the US market, and may have played a role in policy making or government cooperation. Its technical strength may make it a candidate for government support.
2. Dual Benefit Projects
ETF Application + Trump Mention (Green + Orange Area)
BTC (Bitcoin):
Background: Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and is seen as digital gold. In early 2024, the US approved a Bitcoin spot ETF, driving its price and institutional adoption, and by 2025 BTC will be actively promoted as a strategic reserve currency for the US and even other countries and major listed companies.
Analysis: Bitcoin appears in both the "ETF Application" and "Trump Mention" regions, indicating its stable market position. Trump's mention may further enhance its public image and attract more retail investors.
ETH (Ethereum):
Background: Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency, supporting smart contracts and the DeFi ecosystem. In May 2024, the Ethereum spot ETF was approved.
Analysis: Ethereum's position in this region reflects its dual advantages in policy and public attention. The wide application of the Ethereum ecosystem makes it a focus for institutional investment.
White House Involvement + Trump Mention (Red + Orange Area)
TRUMP:
Background: Possibly a meme coin or token related to Trump, commonly seen in celebrity-driven projects.
Analysis: Its presence in this region indicates that it is more based on Trump's personal influence rather than technical strength. Such tokens are usually highly volatile and suitable for short-term speculation.
MELANIA:
Background: Possibly a token or project related to Trump's wife Melania.
Analysis: Similar to TRUMP, MELANIA token may also be based on celebrity effect, lacking long-term technical support.
HBAR (Hedera):
Background: Hedera is an enterprise-grade blockchain that uses the hashgraph consensus mechanism, suitable for supply chain management and decentralized identity scenarios.
Analysis: Hedera's presence in this region indicates that it may have deep cooperation with the US government, and is also receiving attention from Trump. Its enterprise-level applications may give it long-term development potential under policy support.
ETF Application + White House Involvement (Green + Red Area)
This region has no projects, indicating that currently there are no projects that simultaneously meet the "ETF Application" and "White House Involvement" conditions but are not mentioned by Trump.
3. Single Category Projects
3.1 ETF Application (Green Area)
Projects: DOGE (Dogecoin), BONK, XCH (Chia), AVAX (Avalanche), FIL (Filecoin), SUI, APT (Aptos), NEAR, MOVE.
Analysis:
Meme Coins: DOGE and BONK are meme coins with strong community-driven characteristics, but limited technical applications. Their ETF applications may be more to attract retail capital.
Layer 1 Blockchains: AVAX, SUI, NEAR are high-performance Layer 1 blockchains, similar to Solana, and may be seeking to enter the traditional financial market through ETFs.
Storage and Infrastructure: FIL (decentralized storage), XCH (green blockchain), etc. have broader technical applications, and their ETF applications may reflect institutions' optimism about their long-term value.
3.2 White House Involvement (Red Area)
Projects: LTC (Litecoin), LINK (Chainlink), DOT (Polkadot).
LTC: Litecoin is a fork of Bitcoin, with faster transaction speed, and may be focused on in government payment or settlement scenarios.
LINK: Chainlink provides decentralized oracle services, a critical infrastructure for the DeFi ecosystem, and its White House involvement may be related to data credibility.
DOT: Polkadot is a cross-chain protocol aimed at connecting different blockchains, and its technology may attract government interest in interoperability.
3.3 Trump Mention (Orange Area)
Projects: OP (Optimism), AXS (Axie Infinity), BAT (Basic Attention Token), ZEC (Zcash), MANA (Decentraland), ONDO, APE (ApeCoin), LPT (Livepeer), UNI (Uniswap), STX (Stacks).
Analysis:
Diversity: This area includes a variety of project types, such as Layer 2 solutions (OP), DeFi (UNI), games (AXS), privacy coins (ZEC), metaverse (MANA), etc., reflecting the breadth of Trump's mentions.
Speculative: Trump's mention may be more for market hype than based on technical assessment. These projects may see short-term price increases due to increased attention, but their long-term value depends on their fundamentals.
3.4 Made in USA (sub-label within orange area)
Projects: BLUR (NFT market), ALGO (Algorand), GRT (The Graph), MINA, HNT (Helium).
Analysis:
Made in USA: These projects originate from the US and may have advantages in policy support. For example, ALGO and GRT are infrastructure projects focused on high-performance blockchains and data indexing, which may benefit from government priority support in the technology field.
Technical applications: Projects like HNT (IoT) and MINA (lightweight blockchain) with technological innovations may be more attractive in policy-making.
4. Macro Trends and Policy Background
4.1 The Push for ETFs
Historical background: 2024 was a breakthrough year for cryptocurrency ETFs, with the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF (in January) and the Ethereum spot ETF (in May) injecting a large amount of institutional capital into the market.
Trend shown in the chart: More projects (such as SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, etc.) are applying for ETFs, indicating that the integration of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance is accelerating. The launch of ETFs may significantly increase the market value and adoption of these projects.
4.2 The Trump Effect
Background: Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has shifted from criticism to support in recent years. He publicly supported cryptocurrencies multiple times during his 2024 campaign, even launching his own NFT project.
Reflected in the chart: The variety of projects mentioned by Trump, including meme coins (TRUMP, MELANIA), DeFi (UNI), and games (AXS), reflects that his influence is mainly concentrated on market hype and public attention, rather than technical assessment.
4.3 White House Involvement
Background: The US government's attitude towards blockchain technology is shifting from regulatory pressure to cooperation and support. Projects involved with the White House may involve areas such as decentralized identity, supply chain management, or financial innovation.
Reflected in the chart: Projects like SOL, XRP, and HBAR are in the White House involvement area, indicating that they may have played an important role in policy-making.
4.4 Advantages of "Made in USA"
Background: Against the backdrop of the US-China technology competition, the US government may prioritize supporting domestic blockchain projects to ensure technological sovereignty.
Reflected in the chart: Projects marked as "Made in USA" (such as ALGO, GRT, HNT) may have long-term development advantages under policy support.
5. Potential Market Impact
5.1 Central Area Projects (SOL, XRP, ADA)
Market Outlook: These projects may become the biggest winners due to the triple benefits, potentially attracting more institutional capital and retail investors.
Specific Impact:
SOL: Solana's high efficiency may make it the preferred choice in DeFi and NFT, and ETF approval may further drive its price increase.
XRP: If its legal issues with the SEC are resolved, ETF approval may trigger a massive influx of capital.
ADA: Cardano's scientific approach may give it an advantage in government cooperation, with greater long-term development potential.
5.2 ETF-Related Projects (BTC, ETH, AVAX, etc.)
Market Outlook: The launch of ETFs will bring more institutional capital to these projects, increasing their market value.
Specific Impact:
BTC and ETH: Already approved for ETFs, with a stable market position, Trump's mention may further attract retail investors.
AVAX, SUI, NEAR: If ETFs are approved, they may become the beneficiaries of the next wave of high-performance blockchains.
5.3 Trump-Mentioned Projects (TRUMP, MELANIA, UNI, etc.)
Market Outlook: These projects may see short-term price increases due to hype, but their long-term value depends on their fundamentals.
Specific Impact:
TRUMP, MELANIA: Meme coins with obvious characteristics, high volatility, suitable for short-term speculation.
UNI, OP: DeFi and Layer 2 projects with stronger technical capabilities, Trump's mention may bring them more attention.
5.4 White House-Involved Projects (HBAR, LINK, DOT, etc.)
Market Outlook: These projects may receive more government contracts or policy support, with greater long-term development potential.
Specific Impact:
HBAR: Its enterprise-level applications may give it an advantage in government cooperation.
LINK: The widespread application of its oracle services may make it a bridge for DeFi and government cooperation.
6. Conclusion
Biggest Winners: Solana, XRP, and Cardano may become the core beneficiaries, as they simultaneously meet the three benefits, and may perform outstandingly in policy support and market performance.
Market Leaders: Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to maintain their dominant positions, with ETFs and Trump's mention adding more attention.
Policy Support: Projects involved with the White House (such as HBAR, LINK) may benefit from government cooperation in their long-term development.
Made in USA: Projects originating from the US (such as ALGO, GRT) may gain competitive advantages under policy support.
