Traders increase their holdings of put options to seek downside protection, and the Fed may prioritize assessing the impact of inflation

This article is machine translated
Show original
On March 7, according to CoinDesk, the executive order by Trump to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve did not clearly state any new purchases, causing disappointment and leading traders to rush to buy short-term put options on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, causing their premiums to be significantly higher than call options. Block Scholes research analyst Andrew Melville said: "The short-term skew indicators for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana again show demand for puts. But Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring in April and beyond maintain a bullish tilt, with the derivatives market fully reflecting the disappointment after the release of the Trump strategic reserve order. The term structure of Bitcoin and Ethereum has shifted from a deep inversion in most of March to a flattening. With the market digesting the uncertainty of the non-farm payrolls and the crypto summit on Friday, the implied volatility of at-the-money options has dropped by more than 10 points in the short term." Traders are looking forward to the White House crypto summit on Friday to bring positive news to the market, and the release of the US February non-farm payrolls report at 21:30 Beijing time is also closely watched. Reuters forecasts that new jobs will increase from 14.3 million in January to 16 million, the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4%, and the average hourly wage growth will slow from 0.5% to 0.3%. If the data is weaker than expected, it will reinforce the market's expectation of at least three rate cuts by the Fed this year, which may support risky assets like Bitcoin. However, considering the inflationary effect of Trump's tariff policy, the sustainability of the rally is doubtful. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, pointed out in a client report: "The interest rate market expects three rate cuts this year rather than one. But this may be too optimistic - the Fed may prioritize assessing the impact of Trump's policies on inflation, a process that may take months or even quarters. Therefore, the Fed may temporarily maintain a neutral stance. Compared to the Biden administration, the 'Fed put' (the policy intervention threshold) under Trump may be lower, meaning policymakers may tolerate greater market volatility before intervening."

Source
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
Like
Add to Favorites
Comments
Followin logo