Author: Techub News, Writer: Babywhale, Techub News
Early this morning, Bitcoin once again reached the $80,000 mark, and at the time of writing, it has rebounded to above $82,500. The weekend's decline has also left a huge gap on the CME Bitcoin futures chart, just like last Monday.
According to Coinglass data, as of the time of writing, about $621 million in positions were liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours. Among them, about $240 million in Bitcoin contracts were liquidated, $108 million in Ethereum contracts, about $30 million in XRP contracts, and over $26 million in SOL contracts. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance, exceeding $30 million.
Reserve policy fell short of expectations, and macroeconomic uncertainty rose rapidly
The much-anticipated Bitcoin reserve plan has brought almost no good news in recent times.
On the one hand, the Bitcoin Reserve Act signed by Trump clearly stated that the bulk of the reserves come from the approximately 200,000 Bitcoins previously held by the U.S. government, and any additional Bitcoin purchases would need to be "budget neutral," meaning that even if additional Bitcoin is purchased, the fiscal burden cannot be increased. Many speculate that the government may choose to sell some assets to buy additional Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered Bank said the U.S. government could choose to sell gold to buy Bitcoin, but "crypto czar" David Sacks later denied this. In the author's view, additional Bitcoin purchases are an extremely difficult operation for the U.S., and for a government that has already cut a large amount of unnecessary budget in the name of a savior, it is difficult to convince people to buy a risk asset that can fluctuate more than 10% in a single day. For those of us in the industry, Bitcoin is well known, but for the general public, not everyone accepts crypto assets.
In addition to the fact that the national-level Bitcoin reserves have not seen the crazy buying frenzy that many optimists predicted, the progress of state-level Bitcoin reserve bills has also encountered setbacks.
So far, several states, including Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming, have rejected Bitcoin reserve bills, and while Utah has passed the HB 230 "Blockchain and Digital Innovation Amendment" bill, the provision authorizing the state treasurer to invest in Bitcoin has been removed.
Of course, the relevant bills in many states have reached the verge of passage, but we can also draw some conclusions from the existing situation: the "nationwide Bitcoin buying frenzy" that many practitioners have been looking forward to is unlikely to happen, and lawmakers have also maintained a clear head, finding it difficult to convince the public to buy high-risk assets with real money in the short term.
On the macroeconomic front, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have lowered their forecasts for U.S. GDP growth in 2025, with the former revising the growth forecast down from 1.9% previously to 1.5%, and the latter revising it down from 2.2% to 1.7%, and raising the probability of a recession from 15% to 20%.
In fact, Trump's efforts, including raising tariffs and reducing unnecessary spending, are essentially beneficial to the sustainable development of the U.S. in the long run, but in the short term, they are unavoidable in causing rising inflation, rising unemployment, and weakening of the dollar's hegemony. In the author's view, the current financial market is facing an extremely delicate situation: on the one hand, the inflation caused by tariffs may further impact the U.S. economy, forcing the Fed to cut interest rates at some point; on the other hand, if the economy is resilient enough, a hasty interest rate cut may further fuel inflation.
In this way, Trump's "grand strategy" that he is so proud of may lead to an insoluble vicious cycle, which may be the main reason why analysts predict that the U.S. will experience a recession. The author has a groundless guess that many of the wealthy classes in the world today are actually seriously out of touch with the lives of ordinary people, and their perceived short-term "pains" may ruin a considerable part of the lives of the lower classes, and this "why not eat meat and rice" mentality is also an important source of much of the uncertainty.
For risk assets, definite bad news is even better than uncertainty, and the simultaneous rise of gold, U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar over the past year is the most obvious sign of capital seeking certainty, while the recent decline in U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar means that the last safe haven of the risk market, the U.S., no longer has certainty, and the rise of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares also follows the same logic. But given that Bitcoin has to some extent become part of the U.S. stock market since the launch of the spot ETF, the author still needs to remind investors to be prepared for the tsunami caused by the flapping of the butterfly's wings, at least in the first half of this year.
