As the Bit market continues to evolve, hedge funds are gradually becoming the main players in this financial game. MicroStrategy (now called: Strategy) as a highly leveraged alternative to Bit, also operates its funds through market mispricing, becoming an important indicator for the market to arbitrage or observe. This article will introduce several useful indicators and related tracking websites.
(Bit and MicroStrategy: The New Darling of Hedge Funds, the Rules of Market Arbitrage are Changing)
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ToggleStrategy.com: The Official Website of Strategy
Strategy (MicroStrategy), which claims to be a Bit development company, has announced a rebranding to the name "Strategy" and has also launched a new website, providing real-time financial data and various indicators for Strategy.
The homepage features information related to its stock MSTR, including the stock price, market capitalization, 30-day average trading volume, and 3-month and 1-year returns. It also provides the total number of Bit owned by the company, as well as the value of Bit. The author believes the most important indicator is mNAV, which includes the following factors:
- Enterprise Value: Market capitalization + total liabilities (including convertible debt Debt and preferred stock Pref)
- Bit NAV: The market value of its Bit holdings
mNAV = Enterprise Value ÷ Bit NAV
This indicator can represent the current stock price and the value of its Bit holdings, and can be used as a premium indicator for the stock price, as well as a sentiment indicator for the crypto market.
MSTR-tracker
Another website that the author finds very useful is mstr-tracker.com. The homepage also has various data and indicators, and it has calculated a similar indicator to mNAV, called NAV Premium, but the algorithm is slightly different. It is directly calculated as:
NAV premium = Market Cap ÷ Bit NAV
NAV premium does not include convertible debt and preferred stock. Both NAV premium and mNAV are calculated using the current outstanding shares, without considering shares that may be converted later.
ABMedia has also published an article analyzing how to evaluate these Bit reserve strategy companies, and one of the key indicators is the P/B ratio, which is similar to the concept of NAV Premium.
(Strategy Leads the Trend, a Detailed Guide to Investing in Bit Reserve Strategy Companies)
The advantage of mstr-tracker is that it provides historical data charts, especially the NAV Premium data since August 2020, which shows that the premium was once over 6 times during the initial Bit purchase by Strategy, and has been below 2 since 2021, peaking at 3.1 last November.
However, the author feels it is a pity that this chart is not accompanied by a Bit price trend chart. If combined with the Bit price trend, it can be seen that the recent low points of the premium are at the purple arrow in early 2025 (premium of 1.685) and early March (1.431), which may reflect the low sentiment in the currency price and the market. The premium at the high point of the red arrow also shows that the market's optimistic sentiment is spreading.
ABMedia has previously analyzed that Strategy's convertible bond issuance timing is always when Strategy's stock price is significantly higher than the Bit price, we can speculate that:
With the high stock price, option pricing can set the conversion price at a relatively high point, and under the market's enthusiastic sentiment, the option price also rises with the tide, so funds can be obtained at almost zero cost.
Risk Warning
Crypto asset investments are highly risky, and their prices may fluctuate dramatically, and you may lose your entire principal. Please carefully evaluate the risks.
