The crypto welcomes "Black Monday", the most comprehensive summary of market views, data, and operations
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The crypto market experienced a three-week decline in March. The crypto summit hosted by former President Trump, which was all talk and no action, exacerbated the disappointment. Statements over the weekend about the US economy facing a "transition period" further undermined investors' confidence in a policy shift amid the market crash, heightening economic concerns.
Today's "Black Monday" in the US stock market dragged down the crypto market, with Bitcoin touching a low of $76,600, a new low in nearly 4 months, essentially returning to the level when Trump was elected in 2020. Major Altcoins such as ETH and SOL were also bloodbathed, with Ethereum falling below $1,800, the lowest since October 2023. According to data from BlockBeats, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 24 (yesterday was 20), indicating the market sentiment is still in "extreme fear" territory.
In the midst of the lamentations, the market's biggest concern is when the bottom will be formed. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin may find a bottom around $70,000, a 36% retracement from the historical high of $110,000. He predicts the market needs a free-fall in US stocks, causing traditional finance players to go bankrupt, and the time when the Fed and central banks start flooding the market will be the best time to go all-in. For risk-averse players, it's better to wait for the liquidity injection before adding positions to avoid the agony of a prolonged consolidation and potential underwater positions.
The market's pessimism has not eased. With the pessimism in the stock market combined with concerns about a US recession, some community members believe Bitcoin's maximum potential downside is around $50,000 in such an environment. However, CZ stated that macroeconomic indicators only have a short-term impact on Bitcoin's price, implying that one should still adhere to long-term principles and HODL.
As for when the market can recover, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest interprets the current market as being in the final stage of a rolling recession, which will give the Trump administration and the Fed more policy adjustment room than investors expect, potentially leading the US economy into a "deflationary boom" in the second half of this year. She believes the Fed's monetary policy will be more flexible, and the market may have underestimated this potential economic rebound.
Is Bitcoin's "digital gold" hedging property still there? While the future market may see improvements, current market uncertainties still exist. Ruslan Lienkha of YouHodler points out that Bitcoin's consolidation phase last year lasted for months (even up to half a year) before the next wave of uptrend. "The current consolidation period may evolve into a medium-term bear market." "Although Bitcoin may potentially evolve into a hedge asset in the future, investors currently still view it as a high-risk asset, often reacting more violently to changes in market sentiment than traditional financial markets."
The data shows this plunge is quite severe. US stocks and crypto stocks are all down over 10%, with Coinbase (COIN) down 12.04% and MicroStrategy (MSTR) down 13.56%, nearly halving from its peak, as investors are concerned about economic headwinds and unwinding their previous crypto-related bets that benefited from Donald Trump's election.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the crypto market has lost $1.3 trillion in market cap, a 33% drop, since reaching an all-time high in December 2024, equivalent to an average daily loss of $1.55 billion over 84 consecutive days. This marks the largest three-month market cap retracement in crypto history, with the total crypto market cap now at the lowest level since November 2024.
In terms of liquidations, the current scale is comparable to the LUNA collapse. Bravos Research analysis shows the crypto market is experiencing the largest Altcoin liquidation since the LUNA crash in May 2022, with around $1 billion in liquidations, far exceeding the post-FTX collapse. Data indicates Bitcoin's dominance is continuing to rise, suggesting no obvious Altcoin season signal in the short term, as retail enthusiasm has not fully recovered yet.
Derivatives data from Coinglass shows $955 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, mostly long positions, including $318 million in BTC and $252 million in ETH.
As for whale activities, some whales have been forced to sell or reduce leveraged long positions to avoid liquidation. One whale sold 25,800 ETH at a loss of over $32 million to avoid liquidation. Some whales have also added collateral or reduced positions to improve health ratios or lower liquidation prices. On the other hand, some whales have chosen to take profits, with 4 whales depositing a total of 47,756 ETH into CEXs in the past 24 hours.Despite the volatile market, some whales are still looking for opportunities to buy the dips. One whale bought 15,292 ETH at an average price of $2,014 10 hours ago, while another whale spent 30.79 million DAI to buy ETH at the same average price.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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