Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will bottom out at $70,000! When the U.S. stock market crashes and the Fed cuts interest rates to save the market, you can "increase your holdings"
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The market's concerns about a US economic recession have significantly deepened due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy. The cryptocurrency market crashed badly today, with Bitcoin plummeting to as low as $76,600 this morning, nearly returning to the level when Trump won the US election last year, setting a new low in nearly 4 months.
Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000?
Regarding this, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes analyzed in a tweet today that Bitcoin may bottom around $70,000, and Bitcoin has retraced 36% from its all-time high of $110,000, which is very normal in a bull market.
Arthur Hayes believes that next, we need to wait for the free-fall collapse of the US stock market, followed by the bankruptcy of major players in traditional finance, and then the Federal Reserve, the People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will start implementing loose monetary policies to rescue the market. That's when it's time to "All in":
The Federal Reserve, the People's Bank of China, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan will all adopt loose monetary policies to make their countries great again.
Then you can fully load up your positions, traders will try to 'buy the dips', but if you hate risk, you can wait until the major central banks start injecting liquidity, you may not precisely time the bottom, but you won't have to suffer through the prolonged consolidation period and potential floating losses.
Arthur Hayes had previously mentioned that there is a large amount of open interest in the $70,000 - $75,000 range for Bitcoin options, and if Bitcoin falls to that range, market volatility will increase.
Previously, Arthur Hayes had written a long article predicting that Trump's policies would trigger a recession, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and print money, and the new liquidity would drive Bitcoin to $1 million during Trump's term, although Bitcoin could potentially drop to $70,000 before that, but he would 'buy the dips'.
Bitcoin market is fundamentally different from the stock market
In addition, Arthur Hayes also explained in a tweet today that the Bitcoin market is fundamentally different from the stock market. Bitcoin trades 24/7 globally, and Bitcoin cannot be arbitrarily issued, the consequence of traders' failure is bankruptcy or liquidation, and no country's fiscal policy is directly linked to the rise of Bitcoin prices.
In contrast, the stock market is open for trading 5 days a week, 8 hours a day, and has specific participants, although stocks cannot be directly issued, if people have political connections, they will receive government bailouts when they fail, and the US's marginal tax revenue is directly linked to stock market performance, so the stock market will definitely be rescued:
It's just that when the market is rescued, whether your portfolio is still alive is not certain.
Bitcoin is a true free market, while the stock market is not. Therefore, in a fiat liquidity crisis, Bitcoin's price movements will lead the stock market, whether it's a decline or an increase.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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