Title: "Of nadirs and bidding death in memecoins"

Author: @Ga__ke

Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher

It's been a while since I've written anything. Reviewing my trading mindset in 2024, some of my views on meme coin selection are still applicable, but now we seem to have entered a whole new realm. In 2024, we experienced a market evolution from pure meme coins > celebrity coins > art tokens > AI/tech/utility tokens. At that time, the replacement of mainstream hot spots was relatively clear - when and what kind of topics became the market focus, there were often clear boundaries and timelines.

However, fast-forward to 2025, we are seeing a chaotic token landscape: past hot projects are all striving to regain market attention - they were once in the limelight, but now most have experienced 70-90% drawdowns. Unfortunately, those who are still holding on are often just the "last bagholders" or veteran players who keep coming in and out, hoping for the next pump. Of course, these projects are not necessarily scams, but more like a game of "musical chairs" - the market (or players) is always chasing the latest hot spots, unless there are sufficient reasons for people to refocus on past projects.

At the same time, brand new meme tracks and tech concepts are fiercely competing, making the market landscape even more complex. 2024 has already laid the foundation for the "tokenization of attention" across various industries, and Trump's "official" token has given the green light to the entire market (both good and bad projects). In this chaos, we are starting to see multiple tokens of different themes and life cycles coexisting. However, we must be aware that market liquidity, like our attention, is cyclical. Today's headline hot spot may be ignored tomorrow, and who the next hot spot will be is unpredictable (laughs).

Therefore, tokens of various themes will continue to coexist, and each track will also experience its own liquidity cycle. What does this mean? Remember this chart?

Now, imagine this is the price trend of a single token; at the same time, you can also flip it over, and it becomes the trend of another token.

Further, in your mind, stack these graphs on top of each other, realizing that there are 112,931,920,482 tokens on the blockchain, each with its own highs and lows; at the same time, the overall trends of each track are at different stages - some just touched the bottom (nadir), while others have reached the top (zenith).

My core view is: there are countless trading opportunities in the market, the key is to discover those that have not yet been squeezed out. Of course, the vast majority of tokens may ultimately fail, but you can at least put them on your watchlist, leave a note for yourself, or set price alerts, so that you can take a look at them again at the right time.

In 2024, we almost covered all the major tokenized attention tracks. I mentioned some key categories earlier, and now let's expand on them. Some projects don't last a week, while some once-glorious projects have already bottomed out.

1. Pure meme coins - these tokens are purely for fun, usually originating from viral trends on X (Twitter) / TikTok, or nostalgic memes. The "Copypasta" gameplay and the flywheel effect of viral propagation are most prominent here.

2. Celebrity Coins - these tokens rely on influential individuals, and the core logic of many projects is to use the fan effect to harvest the market. Although this field is full of "ATM" projects, it still provides a window of opportunity - because they can "guide ordinary users into the crypto world".

3. Art Tokens - tokens supported by art, to some extent can be seen as an evolved version of the NFT community.

4. AI/Tech/Utility Tokens - these tokens at least carry some technology or utility in concept. I used to say I would never trade this kind of token, but the market environment is constantly changing, and we also need to adapt. The market often cares more about the "technological prospects" rather than the actual technology itself - in other words, the selling point is the "news expectation", not the technology itself (sell the news / the idea of the news).

5. Web2 Community Tokens - this category is similar to celebrity coins, but they rely on existing Web2 communities, using the existing fan base to project into the Web3 domain.

6. News/Trending Tweet Tokens - these tokens are often a quick speculation on a short-term hot spot, and can set a "market meta" in a short period of time. These tokens usually rise and fall rapidly, and of course they may also have a second chance. But don't FOMO (panic buy) too much on the first pump, otherwise you may get buried.

The categories I listed above are not comprehensive, but just an attempt to simplify the analysis process. Will there be new categories in the future? I hope so - usually, new market metas tend to come with the most generous returns. However, as mentioned earlier, as different categories of tokens are gradually establishing their footing, and their life cycles are at different stages, the boundaries of the market are becoming increasingly blurred. Plus the market cooling down after the Trump token frenzy, we are seeing more "bearposting". It's hard to imagine what could surpass that wave of hype, at least for now, I personally don't see a clear direction.

Nevertheless, I still welcome the slowdown in market pace. As someone who tends to be more of a holder than a trader, I benefit more in such a market environment - the market has returned to the dominance of the 1st/3rd/4th categories of tokens, which are usually slower-paced, community-driven, and have more organic growth characteristics.

In the selection of meme coins, some of the 2024 thoughts are still applicable (especially the 1st/3rd categories). But with more and more tokens experiencing over 90% drawdowns, this also brings new entry opportunities. Here are some key factors that may become future catalysts:

1. Community Expansion: Who are the potential future supporters of this token? In fact, in most cases, they don't even need to actually buy in, just the market's expectation of them buying in can be enough to drive the price up. For example, the MLK token was dormant for 7 months until it was revived and eventually attracted the attention of big Vs like Faze. The core strategy: tell a good story and leverage the "attention flywheel" (sell the story and the idea of an attention flywheel).

2. The Current Community/Team: Is the tech still tekking? Is dev still devving? Is the community still vibing? For traditional meme coins, I usually suggest evaluating the resilience of the community during market pullbacks; for the 4th category tokens (tech/utility tokens), you need to dig deeper into the project progress and see if more capital and attention are flowing in. This growth may not always be directly reflected in market cap, so there are also arbitrage opportunities here.

3. Mainstream Coverage: Similar to community expansion, but here the emphasis is on traditional media's attention to specific events. For example, the political discussion around the pnut token, the continuous coverage of moo deng, or the traditional finance (TradFi) shift towards a particular industry (like AI/robotics). Essentially, this is about positioning the news expectation, but the key is: the expectation cannot be too obvious, otherwise the trade becomes crowded too early.

As with any trade, you need to enter the market before it becomes crowded, and gradually exit as the market becomes more crowded. At each stage, think about: who is the marginal buyer? Is this story still a good story?

Potential risks to be aware of:

1. Position Sizing. You may have found 312,849 reasons to believe that certain Tokens will skyrocket, but the question is - do you really have enough capital to allocate it reasonably? You need to be aware that the funds you invest in these projects may never be recovered, so you still need to maintain sufficient liquidity to participate in the mainstream tracks and popular Tokens in the current market. The bright side is that if you buy these Tokens at the bottom, your drawdown usually won't be too large even if they ultimately fail to explode. But if you spread your funds across 1,293 Tokens, you'll realize this could become a serious problem.

2. Moat / Legitimacy. You may have ample reasons to believe that a Token should re-emerge, and the market trend also seems to be developing as you expected. But suddenly - someone issues a brand new Token, and all the market funds flow into that project! This is the sad reality of the Pump.fun era, where now anyone who knows nothing about blockchain can easily issue Tokens, which is why the market is flooded with 12,312 "broccolis" and 12,903 "neiros". The solution? If you truly believe in your investment logic, then diversify your funds across all possible options and patiently wait for the market to select the winners. If your funds are too widely distributed, you can withdraw some of the initial investment early, and then wait for the market to decide on the ultimate winner before concentrating your investment. My personal examples are chillguy and mnc, and the market will ultimately decide which one prevails.

I also understand that this trading approach is not suitable for everyone. In this market, there are countless ways to make money and lose money - in the best case, you will be seen as a genius; in the worst case, it's just a form of self-comfort. But my experience has shown that focusing on the forgotten corners of the market and lying in wait on Tokens after the storm has passed has been an effective strategy for me. Just as I was writing this article, a random Fortnite Token was the latest example of this model, and we've seen similar cases many times before.