Is the meme dead? Find new opportunities at the bottom of emotions
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The market always has countless trading opportunities, the key is to find those that have not yet been squeezed.
Author: @Ga__ke
Compiled by: Scof, ChainCatcher
It's been a while since I've written anything. Looking back on my trading mindset in 2024, some of my views on the selection of coins are still applicable, but now we seem to have entered a whole new realm. In 2024, we experienced a market evolution from pure coins > celebrity coins > art tokens > AI/tech/utility tokens. At that time, the replacement of the mainstream hot spots was relatively clear - when and what kind of themes became the market's focus, there were often clear boundaries and timelines.
However, fast-forwarding to 2025, we see a chaotic landscape of tokens: the past hot projects are all striving to regain market attention - they were once in their glory days, but now most of them have experienced 70-90% drawdowns. Unfortunately, those who are still holding on are often just the "last bagholders" or the old players who keep coming in and out, hoping for the next wave of selling opportunities. Of course, these projects are not necessarily scams, but more like a game of "musical chairs" - the market (or the players) is always chasing the latest hot spots, unless there are sufficient reasons for people to refocus on the past projects.
At the same time, brand new tracks and tech concepts are fiercely competing, making the market landscape even more complex. 2024 has already laid the foundation for the "tokenization of attention" across various industries, and Trump's "official" token has given the green light to the entire market (whether good or bad projects). In this chaos, we begin to see multiple tokens of different themes and life cycles coexisting. However, we must be aware that market liquidity, like our attention, is cyclical. Today's headline hot spot may be ignored tomorrow, and who the next hot spot will be is unpredictable (laughs).
Therefore, tokens of various themes will continue to coexist, and each track will also experience its own liquidity cycle. What does that mean? Remember this chart?
Now, imagine this is the price trend chart of a single token; at the same time, you can also flip it over, and it becomes the trend chart of another token.
Going further, in your mind, stack these graphs on top of each other, and realize that there are 112,931,920,482 tokens on the blockchain, each with its own highs and lows; at the same time, the overall trends of each track are also at different stages - some have just touched the bottom (nadir), and some have already reached the top (zenith).
My core view is: the market always has countless trading opportunities, the key is to find those that have not yet been squeezed. Of course, the vast majority of tokens may ultimately fail, but you can at least put them on your watchlist, leave a note for yourself, or set price alerts, so that you can take a look again at the right time.
In 2024, we almost covered all the major tokenized attention tracks. I mentioned some key categories earlier, and now let's expand on them. Some projects don't last a week, and some once-glorious projects have already hit bottom.
1. Pure coins - these tokens are purely for fun, usually originating from viral trends on X (Twitter) / TikTok, or nostalgic s. The "Copypasta" gameplay and the flywheel effect of viral propagation are most prominent here.
2. Celebrity Coins - these tokens rely on influential individuals, and the core logic of many projects is to use the fan effect to harvest the market. Although this field is full of "ATM-like" projects, it still provides a window of opportunity - because they can "guide ordinary users into the circle".
3. Art Tokens - tokens supported by art, to some extent can be seen as an evolved version of the NFT community.
4. AI/Tech/Utility Tokens - these tokens at least conceptually carry some technology or utility. I used to say I would never trade this kind of token, but the market environment is constantly changing, and we also need to adapt. The market often cares more about the "technological prospects" than the actual technology itself - in other words, the selling point is the "news expectation", not the technology itself (sell the news / the idea of the news).
5. Web2 Community Tokens - this category is similar to celebrity coins, but they rely on existing Web2 communities, using the existing fan base to project into the Web3 realm.
6. News/Trending Tweet Tokens - these tokens are often a quick speculation on a short-term hot spot, and can set a "market meta" in a short period of time. This type of token usually rises extremely fast and falls just as quickly, of course they may also have a second chance. But don't FOMO (panic buy) too much on the first surge, or you'll likely get buried.
The categories listed above are not comprehensive, they are just an attempt I made to simplify the analysis process. Will there be new categories in the future? I hope so - usually, new market metas tend to come with the most generous returns. However, as mentioned earlier, as different categories of tokens are gradually establishing their footing, and their life cycles are at different stages, the boundaries of the market are becoming increasingly blurred. Plus the market cooling down after the Trump token frenzy, we're seeing more "bearposting". It's hard to imagine what could surpass that wave of hype, at least for now, I personally don't see a clear direction.
Nevertheless, I still welcome the slowdown in market pace. As someone who is more inclined to be a than a , I benefit more in such a market environment - the market is returning to the dominance of the 1st/3rd/4th categories of tokens, which are usually slower-paced, community-driven, and have more organic growth characteristics.
In the selection of coins, some of the thoughts from 2024 are still applicable (especially the 1st/3rd categories). But with more and more tokens experiencing over 90% drawdowns, this also brings new entry opportunities. Here are some key factors that could become future catalysts:
1. Community Expansion: Who are the potential future supporters of this token? In fact, in most cases, they don't even need to actually buy in, just the market's expectation of them buying in can be enough to drive the price up. For example, the MLK token was dormant for 7 months until it was picked up again, eventually attracting the attention of big Vs like Faze. The core strategy: tell a good story and leverage the "attention flywheel" (sell the story and the idea of an attention flywheel).
2. Current Community/Team Status: Is the technology still progressing? (Is the tek still tekking?) Are the developers still maintaining it? (Is dev still devving?) Is the community atmosphere still active? (Is community still vibing?) For traditional coins, I usually suggest evaluating the resilience of the community during market corrections; for the 4th category (tech/utility tokens), you need to dig deeper into the project progress and see if more capital and attention are flowing in. This growth may not always be directly reflected in market cap, so there are also arbitrage opportunities here.
3. Mainstream Media Coverage: Similar to community expansion, but here the emphasis is on traditional media's attention to specific events. For example, the political discussion around the pnut token, the continuous coverage of moo deng, or the traditional finance (TradFi) shift towards a particular industry (like AI/robotics). Essentially, this is about positioning the news expectation, but the key is: the expectation cannot be too obvious, otherwise the trade becomes crowded too early.
As with any trade, you need to enter before the market becomes crowded, and gradually exit as the market becomes more crowded. At each stage, think about: who is the marginal buyer? Is this story still a good story?
Potential risks to watch out for:1. Position Management (Sizing). You may have found 312,849 reasons to believe that certain tokens will skyrocket, but the question is - do you really have enough funds to allocate them reasonably? You need to be aware that the funds you invest in these projects may never be recovered, so you still need to retain enough liquidity to participate in the mainstream tracks and popular tokens in the current market. The bright side is that if you buy these tokens at the bottom, even if they ultimately fail to explode, your drawdown is usually not too large. But if you spread your funds across 1,293 tokens, you'll realize this could become a serious problem.
2. Moat / Legitimacy. You may have ample reasons to believe that a certain token should re-emerge, and the market trend also seems to be developing as you expected. But suddenly - someone issued a brand new token, and all the market funds flowed into that project! This is the sad reality of the Pump.fun era, where now anyone who knows nothing about blockchain can easily issue tokens, which is why the market is flooded with 12,312 "broccolis" and 12,903 "neiros". The solution? If you truly believe in your investment logic, then spread your funds across all possible options and patiently wait for the market to select the winners. If your funds are too widely distributed, you can withdraw some of the initial investment early, and then wait for the market to decide on the ultimate winner, and then concentrate your investment. My personal examples are chillguy and mnc, and the market will ultimately decide which one wins.
I also understand that this trading approach is not suitable for everyone. In this market, there are countless ways to make money and lose money - in the best case, you will be seen as a genius; in the worst case, it's just a form of self-comfort. But my experience has told me that focusing on the corners of the market that have been forgotten, lying in wait on the tokens after the storm, is an effective strategy for me. Just as I was writing this article, a random Fortnite token was the latest example of this model, and we have seen similar cases many times before.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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