Crypto markets are falling across the board. How does the deflationary narrative drive token value?

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ODAILY
03-12
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The first crypto summit at the White House has just concluded, but its impact is just beginning...

The price of BTC has plunged below $80,000. The crypto market is facing the largest liquidation since the LUNA collapse. Investors' sensitivity to risk has increased significantly, and capital is accelerating to flow into projects with anti-cyclical properties. At the same time, investors are becoming more stringent in their review of token economic models, and a key question arises: Is there a token model that can withstand market volatility and traverse bull and bear cycles?

Source: Bravos Research

The Temptation and Cost of Inflation

Most tokens choose an inflationary model, which is not accidental. Through issuance, they can quickly start the ecosystem by rewarding developers, the community, and early investors. However, when market sentiment is low, the expansion of circulating supply combined with shrinking demand can easily lead to a downward spiral in prices. Ethereum is a typical example. Its early design did not set a total supply, leading to long-term inflation issues and causing user anxiety. It was not until the EIP-1559 proposal introduced a burning mechanism that the selling pressure was effectively alleviated, and this mechanism has had a profound impact on Ethereum's economic model and market performance.

But the question is: if inflation is the fuel to start the ecosystem, can deflation become the brake to fight the cycle?

The Logic of Deflationary Scarcity

In stark contrast to Ethereum's struggles is Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle. After each halving, the speed of new coin issuance is halved, and the scarcity drives the price into an upward channel - this mechanism has allowed Bitcoin to maintain its deflationary property through multiple bear markets, making it the only "digital gold" in the crypto market that has crossed cycles.

This logic is being emulated by more projects. For example, the SIMD-0228 proposal vote in the hot Solana ecosystem, which aims to balance ecosystem incentives and value storage by dynamically adjusting the inflation rate. The proposal, put forward by Tushar Jain of Multicoin Capital and others, has a core mechanism: when the SOL staking rate exceeds 50%, the issuance will be reduced to suppress inflation, and when it falls below 50%, the issuance will be increased to incentivize staking. This "elastic inflation" design reveals a key principle - deflation is not a complete rejection of inflation, but a balancing tool that dynamically interacts with it.

Source: SIMD-0228 Proposal

Even in times of market downturn, the number of token holders of many projects has not decreased but increased, perhaps this is the most effective proof of the deflationary token model in the face of a downward trend.

The Triple Value of Deflationary Mechanisms

In the current counter-cyclical environment, the value of deflationary mechanisms is becoming increasingly prominent, and the breakthrough lies in three aspects:

First, the premium of scarcity. When the growth rate of circulating supply is lower than the growth rate of demand, the token value naturally rises.

Secondly, the anti-inflationary property. Under the backdrop of fiat currency over-issuance and regulatory shocks, deflationary tokens become a safe haven for capital.

Finally, the strengthening of community consensus. The transparent token burning behavior towards the community conveys the long-term commitment of the project party, attracting value investors rather than short-term speculators.

But to realize these values, specific tools are needed. The mainstream deflationary mechanisms currently include:

Token Burning: Transferring a portion of the circulating tokens to a black hole address, such as the daily on-chain burning of BONK.

Staking Lockup: Providing yield incentives for long-term holding, such as the dynamic staking rate adjustment mechanism of Solana's SIMD-0228 proposal.

Ecosystem Consumption: Using tokens as Gas fees or collateral, forming a positive feedback loop of "use and burn".

A Micro Sample of Deflationary Design

$BONK has performed relatively stable in this crazy volatile market, and the author's research found that it has a multi-level deflationary model. The core of this model is the transparent on-chain burning mechanism, including automatic burning from ecosystem interactions, event-driven large-scale burning, and continuous reduction of its own circulating supply in the entire volatile market, realizing a deflationary economy. To a certain extent, it has achieved "rising with the market but not falling with it".

The daily burning mechanism is integrated into all of Bonk's ecosystem applications, and the burning volume continues to increase. In addition, the BONK community also regularly initiates event-driven large-scale burning activities, such as the "BURNmas" plan last December, which burned 16.9 billion BONK (about $54.52 million), accounting for nearly 1.8% of the total BONK supply (about 927 billion); in February this year, another 20.25 billion BONK (about $36.956 million) were burned. These burning measures not only enhance investor confidence, but also provide support for the price by reducing selling pressure.

Source: Solscan

These measures have produced a triple effect:

First, the reconstruction of scarcity. As the supply of circulating Tokens decreases, the perception of their value increases, which may exert upward pressure on the token price.

Secondly, the establishment of community trust: Burning tokens also sends a positive signal to the community. It shows that the project governance is committed to the long-term growth and sustainability of the token, allowing the community to see the "real gold and silver" commitment.

Thirdly, the possibility of exponential growth: Due to the price depression caused by continuous burning, the Token has greater growth potential. This is an attractive point for traders seeking high-risk investments with high return potential.

In the highly volatile market environment, the value of token economics is gradually beginning to emerge, and it is no longer an abstract formula in the whitepaper, but a survival skill that determines the life and death of a project. Using burning to fight inflation, and SOL's SIMD proposal to balance staking and scarcity, we see that deflationary mechanisms are transforming from an optional strategy to a survival imperative. At certain moments in the crypto market, the design of the token economic model can determine life and death more than the marketing narrative.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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