Affected by the spread of the panic caused by the Trump tariff war, BTC once fell below $77,000 this Monday, hitting a new low in nearly four months, and has fallen more than 30% from the historical high of $109,350. However, Cointelegraph analyzed that multiple key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment may have ended.

Bitcoin bear market needs a 40% drop

First, some analysts believe that BTC has entered a bear market, but the current trend is significantly different from the bear market in November 2021, when BTC plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days. However, the current adjustment is more like a 31.5% correction in 60 days starting in June 2024, and a true bear market requires at least a 40% drop, which has not yet been reached.

Weak US dollar is beneficial to support BTC

Secondly, BTC usually has an inverse relationship with the US dollar index. During the BTC bear market in 2021, the US dollar strengthened, with the US dollar index rising from 92.4 in September 2021 to 96.0 in December 2021. But the situation is different now, the US dollar index has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to the current 104, and the current weak US dollar environment is beneficial to the stabilization of BTC prices.

Derivatives market remains healthy

Third, derivatives market data shows signs of stability. Although prices fell 19% from March 2 to March 11, the annualized premium of BTC futures remains at 4.5%, much higher than the negative premium level during the bear market in June 2022. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains close to zero, indicating a balanced demand for long and short leverage, without the excessive demand seen in bear markets.

If risk sentiment improves, the market may rebound

Fourth, the market is currently focused on the potential government shutdown crisis in the US on March 15 and the AI bubble risk. Many companies with a market capitalization of over $150 billion have fallen sharply from their highs, including Tesla (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This spread of risk sentiment has led to a short-term adjustment in BTC.

However, if the US Congress reaches an agreement on the relevant budget bill and avoids a government shutdown, market sentiment will improve, and BTC and other risk assets may rebound.

Real estate crisis may lead to capital inflow into the crypto market

In addition, there is another factor that the US real estate market has recently shown early signs of crisis, but this may actually be beneficial to BTC. In summary, the possibility of BTC returning to $90,000 is supported by the following factors:

1. Weak US dollar
2. Historical experience shows that a 30% correction does not necessarily mean a bear market
3. Resilience in the BTC derivatives market
4. Potential resolution of the US government shutdown risk
5. Real estate market crisis may lead to potential capital outflow