CME美联储观察：美联储3月降息25个基点的概率为3%

Odaily reports that according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97%.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 3%

Odaily reports that the futures market is betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but if concerns about a trade war-induced economic recession intensify, the Federal Reserve may launch a series of rapid rate cuts in June. After US President Trump's speech on the "transitional period" of the economy over the weekend, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will quickly cut rates when the economy slips, and the futures market is increasingly expecting consecutive rate cuts in June, July and October, leaving Federal Reserve officials facing a dilemma between rising inflation and economic weakness. US stocks and US Treasury yields also saw a sharp drop on Monday, as people are concerned that Trump's remarks portend an impending economic recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said last Friday that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates, as the labor market remains strong and inflation is on an uneven path towards the 2% target, and there is great uncertainty about the impact of Trump's trade, fiscal, immigration and regulatory policies. Economists say these policies may push up prices and at least slow economic development in the short term. Goldman Sachs economists on Monday lowered their US economic growth forecast to 1.7% and raised their inflation forecast. (Jinshi)

Analysis: Traders bet on Fed to cut rates in a row amid recession

The US CPI data for February will be released this Wednesday, and the market consensus expects inflation to decline slightly.

However, even if the data meets expectations (overall CPI +0.3% MoM, core +0.3%), the annualized inflation rate will still be as high as 3.9%, nearly double the Fed's target, and far from an optimistic moment.

We need to see a MoM decline to 0.2% or lower for the market to feel comfortable going long, but we need to be wary of data noise (such as fluctuations in energy prices); if the actual data turns out to be higher than expected, the market may experience another plunge.

[Data]
Next, we need to pay attention to the lagging impact of tariffs:
- In early February, the US imposed...

Viewpoint: CPI may cool down on Wednesday, but it does not mean the market is safe

Analyst Jinze pointed out that the February CPI data will be released, and the market consensus expects inflation to decline slightly; it is necessary to see a month-on-month decline to 0.2 or lower in order to reassure the market to <long>, otherwise, if the actual data is higher than expected, the market may experience another plunge. The future risk is that import data is usually lagging by 1-2 months, even if this data does not reflect the relevant impact, the CPI in March-April is also likely to face a second impact.

CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 3%

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