Block founder Dalio (Ray Dalio) was interviewed by CNBC on March 12 in Singapore, directly pointing out that the US is facing a "very serious" debt supply and demand problem, which could lead to drastic market changes. Dalio emphasized:
The US government will need to issue a large amount of Bonds, but the problem is that future market buyers may be unwilling to take them on. The imbalance between the supply and demand of US Treasuries will make the situation more dangerous, and may even lead to "shocking developments".
The US Deficit Problem is Imminent
According to Dalio's analysis, the US fiscal deficit is expected to reach 7.2% of GDP, but to maintain stability, this figure should drop to around 3%. Dalio said:
This is an imminent problem, you will see the government start to act, but the result may catch the market off guard.
Recently, market doubts about US Treasuries have deepened, coupled with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, investors are worried that this may lead to greater market turmoil. When asked whether the US might enter fiscal austerity, Dalio believes that the US government may resort to debt restructuring, put pressure on other countries to buy US Treasuries, or even consider suspending payments to some creditor countries.
He emphasized that similar situations have been seen throughout history, and the market should remain highly vigilant.
Trump Meets with Top CEOs, Emphasizes Economy Will Not Recession
Just as the market's uncertainty about the US economy has increased, US President Trump attended the Business Roundtable on March 12 and met with about 100 corporate executives. Participants included executives from Apple, JPMorgan Chase, Walmart and other major US companies.
Recently, the US stock market has fluctuated significantly, with the S&P 500 index falling 5.3% so far this year, with the decline accelerating on the 11th, mainly because Trump did not explicitly rule out the possibility of an economic recession in a recent interview, causing market panic. However, on the 12th, Trump changed his tune and told the media:
I absolutely do not think there will be a recession.
Trump Defends Tariff Policy, Hints at Possible Further Increase
At the meeting, Trump again defended his tariff policy and hinted that tariffs may be raised further in the future. Trump said:
These tariffs are bringing in a lot of money for the country, and they may even go up. And he emphasized that investing in the US market is still "the best choice".
According to insiders, in a closed-door meeting that was not made public, Trump promised to accelerate the environmental assessment and approval process, and lower the corporate tax rate for US manufacturing companies to 15% to attract more companies to return to US production. He also mentioned that the market may be overheating recently, and revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping is "not happy" with the US's new tariff policy.
