Author: TechFlow

Time has turned, and it's 312 again.

The crypto market always has a bullish-short and bearish-long characteristic, with the bullish market being extremely noisy but short-lived, and the bearish market being gloomy and prolonged.

In the mismatch between the long and the short, most people are unwilling to take profits, unable to stop losses, and unable to leave the table... Then they become disheartened, waiting for the next cycle to come around.

If you happened to be trapped in the tail of the bull market by believing in a certain narrative, you are likely experiencing the dual torment of position and mood.

Humans are a very complex species, a few months ago you could talk endlessly with anyone, but now you are indifferent like an outsider - actively closing the market software, cherishing SOL like gold and not bothering with on-chain memes, with an attitude of not being interested in anything.

The bull market is gone, the wealth effect is gone, and I'm not excited anymore.

But in fact, this is precisely the time when you cannot completely give up on yourself.

Emotions are the greatest enemy, but perseverance is the best solution.

When the market is noisy, you may be busy chasing hot spots, with full positions, afraid of missing every opportunity; while when the market is quiet, it is precisely the time when you can calm down and focus on accumulation.

You should know that if you become too indifferent in the bear market, actively becoming an insulator, it will gradually numb your sensitivity and make you miss those small but important opportunity signals.

By the time the next new narrative really appears, you may find that you have fallen behind the pace, or you start eating the leftovers again.

Just like last year when the bribery case of the Chinese national football team-related personnel was exposed, the then Shenzhen team's main defender Li Fei, after receiving a bribe for match-fixing, exposed to the camera:

"As an insider, we really have no confidence, really. Often you are in a negative competition, no matter from the psychological or physiological, you are in a very relaxed state, not always in a very concentrated state to complete these technical and tactical tasks. Then if you do this for a long time, when you want to tighten up again, you won't be able to."

Is the crypto circle any different?

If you really do nothing, by the time the bull market comes again, you may find yourself like an outsider, standing outside watching others celebrate, but can no longer find your own place.

So, what should you do?

In fact, the answer is not complicated. Do the complex things simply, and repeat the simple things, this is the best survival law in the bear market.

When the market is cold, open your tools, look at the trends, analyze the data;

When the project is quiet, return to the community, participate in discussions, and seek inspiration;

When the mood is low, record your thoughts, review your trades, and challenge your biases.

All the accumulation in the bear market is to prevent you from falling behind in the bull market.

So don't let indifference devour your sensitivity, and don't let laziness become the barrier between you and opportunities.

Let's talk about what you can do in the bear market - from market analysis to trend capture, from community sentiment to personal accumulation. I hope it can help you find direction in this long downturn, and I also hope it can become the reason you thank yourself in the future bull market.

You don't necessarily need to research anything, but you need to make steady progress

Sometimes, you go to the mall not necessarily to buy something, but just to wander around.

But if you don't go to the mall, you may be completely unaware of the new season's products.

The crypto market is a bit similar, often research is not to find an immediate investment target, but to maintain sensitivity to the market.

The bear market is like a quiet shopping season, although there are no long queues of frenzied buying, but those "new products" that are already on the shelves early on are often the next round of bull market hits.

1. Track more common daily data indicators

Just like when the seasons change, people will pay attention to the weather forecast to decide whether to add or change clothes, investors also need to use charts to judge the "seasonal changes" of the market. And in the bear market, the daily and weekly charts are the most reliable "weather forecast".

For example, the 200MA indicator (200-day moving average).

The 200MA is the "climate line" of the crypto market, representing the long-term trend of the market. If the price is trading below the 200MA, it usually means the market is in a bear market; while once the price breaks through the 200MA, it may signal the start of a bull market. In the bear market, observing whether the price is approaching the 200MA can help you find potential trend reversal points.

Another example, Order Block.

Order blocks are the "footprints" of large capital. They are usually the key support or resistance levels in the market, as these areas are often where institutions or whales have made large purchases or sales. By observing these areas, you can judge the potential rebound or pullback points of the market.

Other indicators worth paying attention to:

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): Helps you judge whether the market is overbought or oversold, especially suitable for finding short-term rebound opportunities in the bear market.

• Changes in trading volume: Sudden increases in trading volume often signal changes in market sentiment, such as a token that may be attracting new capital inflows.

• Market Structure: Analyze the changes in highs and lows to determine whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend or sideways trend.

And these indicators can be found on tradingview.com or in the software functions of some CEXs, so I won't go into more detail here.

2. Let yourself "think too much"

In addition to the daily check-ins mentioned above, scrolling through Twitter and Telegram channels is also a method, but simply scrolling can easily lead to noise or being misled by a single post, so you may also need some associative thinking to make yourself think more.

Using the ideas of the last round of infrastructure projects as an analogy:

• If a certain infrastructure project (such as zk Rollups) starts to gain attention, think about whether its application layer projects (such as DeFi protocols on zk Rollups) may also have the opportunity to benefit.

• If a certain Layer 2 project attracts a large number of users due to technical upgrades, its bridging tools, wallets and related DeFi protocols may also benefit as a result.

• When the liquid staking (LSD) track on Ethereum started to explode, many investors found that the protocols related to LSD (such as the trading platforms for staking derivatives) also rose up. This value chain linkage effect is often an important way to capture trends.

If you can't come up with these associations, it will be more important to supplement some basic knowledge of the crypto circle and sort out the various tracks.

Therefore, you can go back to CMC or Coingecko to look at the top projects in different sectors and study them one by one to form an understanding of the project connections.

Chit-chat more, find quality communities

Fighting alone often makes people lose their way, and those P-shitters are all about collaborative teamwork.

Whether you are a newbie or a seasoned investor, joining a community can provide new perspectives for your research and decision-making, which is why there is the so-called "core circle".

And in the bear market, projects need user participation and popularity for marketing considerations; if you can join the official group, DC or TG and show an active attitude, the competition will be much less than in the bull market.

Although you are a Loser, you still need to act like a Builder.

How to choose quality groups and communities?

Go in and observe, try to choose those with active management and focus on education and discussion, rather than places that are completely filled with hype and speculative sentiment.

Because if it's pure hype, you may have already missed the boat when you join, and when the community becomes a pure shill group, aren't there fewer stories about you being the exit liquidity?

Additionally, one suggestion for I is not to be afraid to ask questions, especially about technology, project background or market trends. After all, it's not like face-to-face conversation, the pressure of social anxiety will be much less; as long as you have the interest and energy, you will always be remembered.

Keeping a diary, writing drafts

Keeping a diary is not only a way to record your life, but also a tool for reflection and growth. For traders, a trading journal is the key to understanding your own behavioral patterns and identifying areas for improvement.

How to get started?

The simplest way is, after the daily grind, to spend 10 minutes writing down what projects you've seen, what track they belong to, and why you're interested.

If you can't write it clearly, it means you actually don't understand the project; if you don't understand the project but invested, you may make a profit, but in the end you will also lose it back.

It's not that you will definitely make money if you understand it, but by constantly summarizing, you can improve your ability to analyze problems. If you can't write it clearly, it must be because you don't understand it clearly.

A feasible starting point might be:

• Record the following for each trade: entry point, exit point, decision basis, market environment and final result.

• Spend 10 minutes a day writing down market observations, emotions and cognitive biases. For example, "The market sentiment was bearish today, but I noticed an increase in capital inflows to certain L2 projects".

It doesn't have to be long, but it's best to fully include your observations of the market.

The so-called big shot research-type KOLs, their most fundamental basics are not much different. The difference in the grassroots circle is not that big, persistence and focus, repeated practice in a niche field will make him stand out.

Also, it's 2052 now, there are so many free AIs to use, you can ask about anything you don't understand at any time, the barriers to understanding financial terminology are gradually being broken down, there are no concepts and knowledge that can't be understood, only people who don't execute.

Conservative participation, let go of prejudices

Although the market is bearish, if based on the above analysis, you find a project, the urge to open a few positions is still there.

Faced with the current liquidity environment, the author believes that conservative participation is a choice that will not make mistakes.

For example, in a quiet market, it's easy for people to become complacent or reckless in trading out of boredom, this is when take-profit and stop-loss are very important: set clear entry and exit points, use stop-loss orders, and only trade with the amount of capital you can afford to lose.

If you don't have much concept, do a math problem, if the risk of each trade is not more than 1-2% of the total account, is it a very conservative strategy?

Also, it's easy to fall into a negative or pessimistic mindset in a bear market, how do you convince yourself to give yourself a psychological massage?

A practical suggestion is that even if the overall market is declining, there are always some industries or projects performing well. Focus on these and consider investing in them. You can observe a project with some fundamentals on a weekly or bi-weekly basis, take profits when it's good or withdraw in time.

Still, the same old saying, don't be a bystander, and don't hold a fixed idea in the crypto market where things can change as quickly as flipping a book.

For example, if you are long-term bearish on the market, can you just do a low-leverage short position?

Obviously not, when the market shows signs of turning bullish, your fixed mindset thinks it's all shit coins with no future, insisting on shorting, in the end you will still lose.

Similarly, if you are too optimistic about a project, make sure you haven't overlooked its flaws or potential risks.

Challenge yourself regularly, if you can't do it, let your friends and colleagues challenge your own thinking; be conservative, be dialectical.

Finally, I hope everyone can get excited.

Stay active and consistent. Even in the quietest market, there are always lessons to be learned and opportunities to be found.