QCP 资本分析指出，市场波动性上升，VIX 指数一度触及 28，最终回落至 26.6。不过，Cboe VIX 期货结构进入“现货溢价”模式，可能暗示市场触底。与此同时，今晚的美国 CPI 数据或将影响市场对美联储降息预期的调整。目前市场预计 2025 年美联储降息次数增加至 4 次，远高于 1 月份仅预测的 1 次。此外，美 SEC 推迟了 XRP、SOL、LTC、ADA 和 DOGE 现货 E...

<div>QCP 资本分析指出，市场波动性上升，VIX 指数一度触及 28，最终回落至 26.6。不过，Cboe VIX 期货结构进入“现货溢价”模式，可能暗示市场触底。与此同时，今晚的美国 CPI 数据或将影响市场对美联储降息预期的调整。目前市场预计 2025 年美联储降息次数增加至 4 次，远高于 1 月份仅预测的 1 次。此外，美 SEC 推迟了 XRP、SOL、LTC、ADA 和 DOGE 现货 ETF 的审批至 5 月，同时宣布 3 月 21 日举行加密监管高层圆桌会议，这可能是未来监管方向的关键信号。<div> </div><br><br></div>

QCP 资本分析：美联储降息预期升至 4 次，SEC 推迟多项加密 ETF 审批

The market volatility has risen, with the VIX index briefly reaching 28 before falling back to 26.6. However, the Cboe VIX futures structure has entered a "spot premium" mode, which may suggest that the market has reached a bottom. At the same time, tonight's US CPI data may affect the market's adjustment of expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates 4 times in 2025, much higher than the 1 time predicted in January. In addition, the US SEC has postponed the spot ETF applications for <XRP>, <SOL>, <LTC>, <ADA>, and <DOGE>.

Here is the English translation:

The QCP Capital analysis points out that market volatility has risen, with the VIX index briefly touching 28 before falling back to 26.6. However, the Cboe VIX futures structure has entered a "spot premium" mode, which may suggest the market has bottomed out. At the same time, tonight's US CPI data may affect the market's adjustment of expectations for the Fed's rate cuts. Currently, the market expects the number of Fed rate cuts in 2025 to increase to 4, much higher than the 1 cut predicted in January. In addition, the US SEC has postponed the approval of spot ETFs for XRP, SOL, LTC, ADA and DOGE to May, and announced a high-level crypto regulatory roundtable on March 21, which may be a key signal for the future regulatory direction.

QCP Capital Analysis: Fed rate cut expectations rise to 4 times, SEC postpones approval of multiple crypto ETFs

The market situation
Last night's risk assets plummeted, which can be described as a "bloody night". In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index recorded its worst single-day performance since 2022, with a market value evaporation of $1.4 trillion. Tech stocks led the decline, with Tesla's stock price falling 15%, reflecting the market's repricing pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. MicroStrategy, as a representative of Bitcoin-related stocks, saw a 16.68% drop, further highlighting the linkage between cryptocurrencies and the traditional market. In a report released on March 11, Citigroup strategist Dirk Willer and others <...>

Risk assets have plummeted across the board, an artificially created recession, is the market going to follow a scenario of first falling and then rising?

Here is the English translation:

On March 12, according to 4E monitoring, on Tuesday, Trump repeatedly reversed his tariff policy towards Canada, triggering a "roller coaster" market performance. In the early trading session, the U.S. stock market initially rose, but later Trump announced a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, causing the three major indexes to turn negative. Soon after, news came out that the policy was suspended and the two sides would renegotiate, but the downward trend of the U.S. stock market remained unchanged. After the midday break, the market changed again, with Ukraine agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire. Dip-buyers in large-cap tech stocks emerged, helping the U.S. stock market hit a new high for the day, but the market weakened again towards the close. At the close, the three major stock indexes all fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.14%, the S&P 500 down 0.76%, and the Nasdaq down 0.18%. Most of the tech giants rose.

The cryptocurrency market rebounded significantly, with Bitcoin rising from a low of $76,606 to over $83,000, a rebound of over 8%, recouping the sharp drop the previous day. Ethereum rebounded from a low of $1,754 to $1,920, a rebound of over 9%. Some Altcoins rebounded even more. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose slightly to $2.77 trillion, up 2.5% in 24 hours, and market sentiment improved slightly.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the U.S. dollar index fell more than 0.6%, spending most of the day in a downward trend. Global oil inventory prospects improved, and international oil prices rose slightly; the renewed U.S. tariff situation and concerns about economic growth supported safe-haven gold, with spot gold rising more than 0.9%.

The ongoing uncertainty around Trump's tariff policies continues to impact the market, and the potential impact on consumers and the economy has dampened Wall Street's sentiment. Tonight's 8:30 CPI report is closely watched, as investors hope to judge whether the market's concerns about economic stagflation are reasonable. If the data exceeds expectations, the market may see another plunge.

4E, as a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indexes, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, has recently launched a USDT stablecoin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 8%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: Trump's repeated tariffs have exacerbated market anxiety, and tonight's CPI data will become a key variable

Odaily reports that the futures market is betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but if concerns about a trade war-induced economic recession intensify, the Federal Reserve may launch a series of rapid rate cuts in June. After US President Trump's speech on the "transitional period" of the economy over the weekend, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will quickly cut rates when the economy slips, and the futures market is increasingly expecting consecutive rate cuts in June, July and October, leaving Federal Reserve officials facing a dilemma between rising inflation and economic weakness. US stocks and US Treasury yields also saw a sharp drop on Monday, as people are concerned that Trump's remarks portend an impending economic recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said last Friday that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates, as the labor market remains strong and inflation is on an uneven path towards the 2% target, and there is great uncertainty about the impact of Trump's trade, fiscal, immigration and regulatory policies. Economists say these policies may push up prices and at least slow economic development in the short term. Goldman Sachs economists on Monday lowered their US economic growth forecast to 1.7% and raised their inflation forecast. (Jinshi)

QCP Capital Analysis: Fed rate cut expectations rise to 4 times, SEC postpones approval of multiple crypto ETFs

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