Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 97.0%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 3.0%。到 5 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 60.5%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 38.4%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 1.1%。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 97.0%，降息 25 个基点的概率为 3.0%。到 5 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 60.5%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 38.4%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 1.1%。（金十）

美国CPI公布后美联储3月按兵不动的概率维持在97%

Odaily Odaily reports that according to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March is 97.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.0%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged by May is 60.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 38.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.1%. (Gold Ten)

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March is 97.0%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.0%. The probability of keeping the current rate unchanged by May is 60.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 38.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 1.1%. (Gold Ten)

After the release of the US CPI, the probability of the Fed remaining on hold in March remains at 97%

US short-term interest rate futures narrowed their earlier declines after the CPI report, with traders still expecting the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in June, and expecting at least two rate cuts this year.

Traders still expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in June

Odaily reports that the futures market is betting that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its policy meeting next week, but if concerns about a trade war-induced economic recession intensify, the Federal Reserve may launch a series of rapid rate cuts in June. After US President Trump's speech on the "transitional period" of the economy over the weekend, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will quickly cut rates when the economy slips, and the futures market is increasingly expecting consecutive rate cuts in June, July and October, leaving Federal Reserve officials facing a dilemma between rising inflation and economic weakness. US stocks and US Treasury yields also saw a sharp drop on Monday, as people are concerned that Trump's remarks portend an impending economic recession. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said last Friday that the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to cut interest rates, as the labor market remains strong and inflation is on an uneven path towards the 2% target, and there is great uncertainty about the impact of Trump's trade, fiscal, immigration and regulatory policies. Economists say these policies may push up prices and at least slow economic development in the short term. Goldman Sachs economists on Monday lowered their US economic growth forecast to 1.7% and raised their inflation forecast. (Jinshi)

Analysis: Traders bet on Fed to cut rates in a row amid recession

Odaily report: Analyst Tatiana Darie said that all US inflation indicators in February were lower than expected, US Treasury yields fell throughout the day, and S&P 500 futures rose sharply. This overturns the increasingly popular stagflation theory since the Trump tariff shock. US CPI growth in February was lower than expected, but this improvement may be temporary, as the US has imposed high tariffs on imported goods, which is expected to push up the cost of most goods in the coming months. Data released on Wednesday showed that after rising 0.5% in January, the US CPI rose 0.2% last month. And in the 12 months to February, CPI rose 2.8% after rising 3.0% in January. "The longer inflation is above the Fed's target, even if it is due to temporary factors such as tariffs, the more likely it is that expectations will turn upward," said Stephen Juneau, US analyst at Bank of America Securities. "If this happens, it will be much more difficult for the Fed to restore price stability."

After the release of the US CPI, the probability of the Fed remaining on hold in March remains at 97%

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