Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as instructed: Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market has continued to rise, reaching a new high on March 12, 2025. At the same time, the market is highly focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, especially as US inflation data came in lower than expected, fueling expectations of rate cuts. This series of factors has not only affected the price trends of Bitcoin and Altcoins, but also reflects the deeper changes in the global macroeconomy and the crypto market. **Bitcoin's Dominance Rises, Altcoin Fever Subsides** **Bitcoin Outperforms the Overall Crypto Market** *Although Bitcoin prices have declined since the beginning of 2025, it has shown stronger resilience compared to other cryptocurrencies.* Tradeview data shows that as of March 13, Bitcoin's market dominance has reached 62.14%, far higher than the 54% in December 2024, reaching a new high since March 2021. This trend indicates that in the context of market volatility, investors are more inclined to hold Bitcoin rather than the riskier Altcoins. The continued rise in Bitcoin's dominance suggests that the brief bull market in Altcoins is unlikely to last. This trend was already evident at the end of 2024, when Altcoins experienced a rapid surge within a month, but then quickly retreated due to changes in macroeconomic data. **Market Cycle and Capital Flows** Historically, Bitcoin's dominance often rises when the market is at the beginning or end of a bull market. This is because when risk aversion sentiment rises, investors tend to turn to Bitcoin rather than higher-risk small-cap crypto assets. However, from the perspective of active user data, some capital and on-chain activities are gradually flowing to Ethereum and other Layer 1 networks, such as TRON and TRX. This suggests that although Bitcoin remains a safe haven for investors, its competitors are catching up in terms of ecosystem activity. **Market Sentiment Improves, Long-term Holders Dominate** In terms of Bitcoin's own market data, the turnover rate has declined today, and the VIX fear index of the US stock market is also showing a downward trend, indicating that market sentiment is gradually recovering. However, although the panic sentiment has eased, the current turnover rate and VIX are still at relatively high levels, meaning that the market has not yet completely emerged from the volatile range. It is worth noting that the CME Bitcoin futures price is less than $150 away from the last short-term gap, and if the market sentiment remains stable and there are no new negative factors, this gap is expected to be filled tomorrow. In addition, the US stock market has performed well, with the Nasdaq index up 1.22% and the S&P 500 index up 0.49%. If there are no unexpected changes in the after-hours market, it may further boost market confidence. From the perspective of the order book data, the dense order book area between $93,000 and $98,000 remains stable, showing no signs of panic selling. This indicates that investors in this price range are choosing to continue holding rather than cashing out due to short-term corrections. Some investors have suffered unrealized losses in this price range, but market data shows that they are gradually transitioning to long-term holders, making the price decline no longer trigger large-scale panic selling. This trend indicates that the market structure is changing, with more chips shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders. In the future, if Bitcoin returns to $95,000, it may face some selling pressure, but before that, the market is mainly influenced by ultra-short-term investors, which can be clearly seen from the turnover rate data. **Interest Rate Policy Becomes a Key Market Variable** **The Fed Delays Rate Cuts, Putting Pressure on Bitcoin** In January 2025, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting, citing a still-strong US job market and economic data not supporting an immediate rate cut. This decision reinforced market expectations of the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance, putting pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Since the Fed's announcement on January 29 to keep rates unchanged, the spot price of Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $109,000 (in December 2024) to $83,550 (as of March 13), a decline of nearly 25%. It is worth noting that the decline in Altcoins has been even greater, reflecting the increased risk aversion sentiment in the market. Savvy traders have withdrawn from Altcoins and turned to Bitcoin to reduce their losses. Although Bitcoin's own price has retreated, it has still outperformed the overall crypto market. **CPI Data Comes in Lower Than Expected, Rate Cuts May Come Sooner** The latest release of the US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in lower than market expectations, fueling market expectations of the Fed cutting rates within the year. The data shows that the year-over-year CPI was 2.8%, lower than the previous expectation of 2.9%, and the overall CPI also declined by 0.1%. This signal has strengthened the market's confidence in the Fed cutting rates within the year. 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena pointed out that the decline in inflation data may prompt the Fed to accelerate its rate cut pace, and rate cuts usually provide more liquidity to the market, thereby boosting the prices of Bitcoin and other risk assets. Most market participants believe the Fed will cut rates before June 2025. Source: CME Group Mena further analyzed: "The market currently expects a 31.4% chance of a rate cut in May, tripling from the previous month, while the expectation of three rate cuts by the end of the year has jumped to 32.5%. Even 21% of market participants believe the Fed may cut rates four times." **Trump Administration's Policies and Market Dynamics** **Can Trump Drive Rate Cuts?** Although the market expects the Fed to cut rates within 2025, the statements of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials indicate that they are not in a hurry to take action. For example, Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized in a speech on February 17 that the central bank should be patient and not rush to cut rates before inflation declines further. However, the focus on interest rate issues in the US political arena is on the rise. Market analyst Anthony Pompliano even speculated that the Trump administration may deliberately create market turmoil to force the Fed to cut rates sooner. On March 10, Pompliano pointed out on social media: "The Trump administration may deliberately create market panic to push the Fed to cut rates faster in 2025." **Debt Issues May Be a Key Driver for Rate Cuts** The US government has about $92 trillion in debt, which will mature in 2025 if not refinanced.

In addition to political factors, the US debt problem is also a core variable affecting the decision to cut interest rates. According to data from the Kobeissi Letter, the US government needs to refinance $9.2 trillion in debt by 2025. If refinancing cannot be completed at a lower interest rate, the interest burden of the total national debt (which has exceeded $36 trillion) will further increase.

Due to this risk,the Trump administration has made interest rate cuts a core goal of its economic policy. Analysts believe that if the market continues to be sluggish, Trump may intensify pressure on the Federal Reserve in an attempt to force it to relax monetary policy.

Outlook on the Future Trend of Bitcoin

Currently, the price trend of Bitcoin is mainly affected by macroeconomic policies, market liquidity, and investor risk preferences. In the short term, the Federal Reserve's decision will become the focus of market attention:

1. If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates ahead of time, Bitcoin is expected to benefit and its price may rebound.
2. If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, Bitcoin may continue to be under pressure in the short term, and the market may further concentrate on Bitcoin, weakening the market position of Altcoins.