Recently, the Huobi HTX themed column "Dialogue with HTX Friends" invited crypto KOL Chen Jian Jason, Zishi, and the Huobi HTX Research Team to discuss the topic "Decoding the Wealth Code: Where are the Signals of Bull and Bear Reversal?" from the perspectives of market sentiment, capital flows, and the macroeconomic environment, with the hope of providing investors with clearer market judgment criteria.
Current Market Sentiment: Bull or Bear Market?
Chen Jian Jason shared his views from the perspectives of capital inflows and investor sentiment. He believes that in addition to rising prices, the signals of a bull market include the volume of capital inflows and the willingness of investors to put money in. When the market is full of faith in certain tracks or projects, investors are willing to continuously invest capital, even if the price fluctuates violently, they can maintain enthusiasm. However, when these "enchanted" things gradually "disenchant," investors lose the motivation to spend money, and the market naturally becomes cold.
He also pointed out that it is not very meaningful to discuss whether it is a bull or bear market, the key is whether one can make money and the expected future profitability. At this stage, the stable coin holdings of exchanges continue to grow, but the price has not risen, indicating that the market sentiment is bearish; at the same time, under the interest rate hike cycle, the liquidity is tightening, and there is a lack of new incremental capital. Apart from interest rate cuts, he currently does not see other direct positive factors. Therefore, he is more inclined to a bear market state, but the specific stage varies from person to person.
Zishi entered the discussion from more specific market events. Based on events such as Trump's issuance of coins and DeepSeek's release, he judged that the crypto market narrative has failed, and the Altcoin and AI markets subsequently plummeted, further verifying his judgment. He believes that when the industry enters a reflective stage, the sentiment must turn to a bear market. Short-term indicators show that Bitcoin holders and new miners are starting to lose money, which is consistent with the characteristics of a bear market. However, the bull-bear cycle is now accelerating, with violent ups and downs, and Bitcoin dominates the market, while Altcoins only have local trends. New coin hype often flashes in the pan, and liquidity is highly dependent on attention, and the market has evolved into an "attention market".
The Huobi HTX Research Team supplemented the discussion from the data and macro perspectives, believing that the core of this cycle is the legalization and dollarization of cryptocurrencies, and the Bitcoin ETF has absorbed a large amount of institutional capital, laying the foundation for the long-term legitimacy of the industry. Although Trump's policies bring uncertainty, and mainstream asset volatility has increased, indicators such as the Rainbow Chart have not yet reached the peak of the bull market. They emphasized that while the sentiment may be bearish, the industry still needs to be viewed from a long-term perspective, and the shortening of the cycle does not mean the end of development.
Additionally, when asked whether the typical characteristics of the market bottom have been reflected, Chen Jian Jason stated that the real bottom is a long-term sideways consolidation state where "no one buys the dips". Zishi believes that the real bottom signal should observe the movements of "smart money" - when the big shots and practitioners in the secondary market rest or withdraw, the market will gradually cool down, until the valuation and trading volume become extremely pessimistic, and then it may start to warm up again.
How Much Impact Does the Macroeconomic Environment Have on the Crypto Market?
Zishi believes that Trump's uncontrollability is the key factor why this round of the market has not completely fallen into trouble. He analyzed that Trump's policies often have strong personal characteristics and are difficult to predict, which increases the uncertainty of the market. The performance of the US stock market is enough to prove the market's concerns.
Chen Jian Jason clearly pointed out that the current macroeconomic environment has a negative impact on the crypto market. "A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall," capital always hates risk and pursues certain returns. When the macro environment is in a highly uncertain state, the ultimate choice of capital is to hedge.
The Huobi HTX Research Team supplemented that although Trump supports cryptocurrencies, the implementation of his policies is uncertain. If the policies are implemented stably, the market sentiment may quickly warm up. However, the increasing voices of "blockchain is a scam" within the community also hint that the bottom signal is brewing.
In the Current Market Environment: Actively Layout or Cautiously Observe?
In the current volatile market, how to find a profitable trading strategy, Chen Jian Jason takes a wait-and-see attitude, believing that unless the Federal Reserve policy changes on March 19, it is difficult to see positive news in the short term.
Zishi shared his "hot money" strategy: fully cross margin USDT, only taking action when there is news trading or MEME hotspots. When the market has no free chips, one should believe that their judgment is different from the market.
The Huobi HTX Research Team proposed a dual-track approach: conservative operators can choose exchange financial products such as USDD to earn coins. In addition, one can pay attention to the new asset listings on Huobi HTX and explore quality projects in the bear market.
