Recently, the Huobi HTX themed column "Dialogue with HTX Friends" invited crypto KOL Chen Jian Jason, Zishi, and the Huobi HTX Research Team to have an in-depth discussion on the topic of "Decoding the Wealth Code: Where Are the Signals of Bull and Bear Reversal?", hoping to provide investors with clearer market judgment basis from multiple dimensions such as market sentiment, capital flow, and macroeconomic environment.
Current Market Sentiment: Bull or Bear Market?
Chen Jian Jason shared his views from the perspectives of capital inflow and investor sentiment. He believes that in addition to price increases, the signals of a bull market also include the volume of capital inflow and the willingness of investors to spend money. When the market is full of faith in certain tracks or projects, investors are willing to continuously invest capital, and can maintain enthusiasm even with violent price fluctuations. However, when these "enchanted" things gradually "disenchant", investors lose the motivation to spend money, and the market naturally becomes cold.
He also pointed out that discussing whether it is a bull or bear market is not very meaningful, the key is whether you can make money and the expected future profitability. At this stage, the stable coin holdings of exchanges continue to grow but the price has not risen, indicating that the market sentiment is bearish; at the same time, under the interest rate hike cycle, the liquidity is tightening, and there is a lack of new incremental capital. Except for interest rate cuts, he currently does not see other direct positive factors. Therefore, he is more inclined to be in a bear market state, but the specific stage varies from person to person.
Zishi entered the discussion from more specific market events. Based on events such as Trump's issuance of coins and DeepSeek's release, he judged that the crypto market narrative has failed, and the subsequent collapse of the Altcoin and meme markets further verified his judgment. He believes that when the industry enters a reflective stage, the sentiment must turn to a bear market. Short-term indicators show that Bitcoin holders and new miners are starting to lose money, which is consistent with the characteristics of a bear market. However, the bull-bear cycle is now accelerating, with violent ups and downs, Bitcoin monopolizing the market, and Altcoins only having local trends. The new coin craze is often fleeting, and liquidity is highly dependent on attention, so the market has evolved into an "attention market".
The Huobi HTX Research Team supplemented the discussion from the perspective of data and macroeconomics, believing that the core of this cycle is the legalization and dollarization of cryptocurrencies, and the Bitcoin ETF has absorbed a large amount of institutional capital, laying the foundation for the long-term legitimacy of the industry. Although Trump's policies bring uncertainty, and mainstream asset volatility has increased, indicators such as the Rainbow Chart have not yet reached the peak of the bull market. They emphasized that while the sentiment may be bearish, the industry still needs to be viewed in the long term, and the shortening of the cycle does not mean the end of development.
In addition, when asked whether the typical characteristics of the market bottom have been reflected, Chen Jian Jason said that the real bottom is the long-term sideways consolidation state where "no one buys the dips". Zishi believes that the real bottom signal should observe the movements of "smart money" - when the big shots and institutional practitioners in the secondary market rest or withdraw, the market will gradually cool down until the valuation and trading volume are extremely pessimistic, and then it may start to warm up again.
How Much Does the Macroeconomic Environment Affect the Crypto Market?
Zishi believes that Trump's uncontrollability is the key factor why this round of the market has not completely fallen into trouble. He analyzed that Trump's policies often have strong personal characteristics and are difficult to predict, which increases the uncertainty of the market. The performance of the US stock market is enough to prove the market's concerns.
Chen Jian Jason clearly pointed out that the current macroeconomic environment has a negative impact on the crypto market. "The gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall", capital is always averse to risk and pursues certainty of returns. When the macroeconomic environment is in a state of great uncertainty, the ultimate choice of capital is to hedge.
The Huobi HTX Research Team supplemented that although Trump supports cryptocurrencies, the implementation of his policies is uncertain. If the policies are implemented stably, the market sentiment may quickly warm up. But the increasing voices of "blockchain is a scam" within the community also hint that the bottom signal is brewing.
In the Current Market Environment: Proactive Layout or Cautious Observation?
In the current volatile market, how to find a profitable trading strategy, Chen Jian Jason takes a wait-and-see attitude, believing that unless the Federal Reserve policy changes on March 19, it is difficult to see positive news in the short term.
Zishi shared his "hot money" strategy: fully holding USDT, only taking action when there are news trading or meme hotspots. When the market has no free chips, one should believe that their judgment is different from the market.
The Huobi HTX Research Team proposed a dual-track approach: conservative operators can choose exchange financial products such as USDD to earn coins. In addition, they can pay attention to the new asset listings on Huobi HTX and explore quality projects in the bear market.
