The crypto market is in the midst of a violent turmoil. In February, Bitcoin plummeted 17.39%, marking the worst February performance since 2014 and the second-worst February on record. Entering March, the market remains weak, with Bitcoin repeatedly breaking through multiple key support levels, essentially returning to the level at the time of Trump's victory in 2016. Since reaching a new all-time high on December 16, 2024, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has fallen by more than 30%, and trading volume has declined by nearly 60%. The exhaustion of short-term positive factors and macroeconomic risks are triggering widespread panic in the market. The exhaustion of short-term positive factors: The current market lacks visible substantive positive factors, and market confidence has been severely undermined. The much-anticipated Bitcoin strategic reserve plan was finalized last week, but the reserve was obtained through confiscation procedures rather than direct use of fiscal funds to purchase Bitcoin. This means that the market has not seen new buying power, but rather further compressed the market's imagination of "policy-driven positive factors from the US government," leaving the market greatly disappointed. In addition, the first Crypto Currency Summit held at the White House last Friday did not bring any substantive results. According to reports, the entire event did not release any specific policy documents, nor did it provide a clear guarantee or timetable for the direct purchase of new cryptocurrencies. Most of the speeches were just expressions of gratitude to Trump and praise for his "wise and powerful" leadership, and the market's expected policy-driven positive factors were nowhere to be found. Compared to the market frenzy and grand policy imagination at the time of Trump's election, the short-term driving force in the crypto world has almost disappeared, and even the imagination space is lacking. Macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on risk assets: External macroeconomic uncertainty is adding variables to the market, with Trump's erratic tariff policy repeatedly battering the market, also strengthening the market's expectations of economic slowdown and rising inflation. As Trump rolls out a series of tariffs, prices of various goods from food to clothing are expected to rise, which will test the resilience of consumers and the overall economy. Goldman Sachs' model shows that the risk of recession is rising, from 14% in January to 23%. JPMorgan's similar model also indicates that the market-implied probability of recession has risen from 17% at the end of November to 31%. Increasingly weary of uncertainty, risk assets continue to plummet. The collapse of tech stocks has forced investors to accelerate the reduction of their crypto currency risk exposure. According to coinglass data, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows almost every day since March, with a total net outflow of over $1.35 billion. CPI cooling, but the data may be temporary: The only good news in the recent major macroeconomic data is that the US February CPI released last night was lower than expected across the board, a report the market desperately needed, easing concerns about the US economy potentially falling into a stagflation quagmire. The strong rebound in tech stocks drove the Nasdaq up more than 1.2%, and Bitcoin also rebounded 2%. However, it should be noted that Trump's tariffs have not yet fully penetrated the CPI. Trump's tariff bazooka is currently mainly aimed at China - a 20% tariff has been imposed on all Chinese goods (an additional 10% on February 4, and another 10% on March 4), while tariffs on Canada and Mexico are still at the threat stage and have not yet been implemented. The average shipping time from China to the US is 25-35 days, and the goods currently being sold in US retail are mostly non-tariff inventory, with the new tariff-added goods expected to enter end-user sales starting in March-April. So if the market only focuses on the February data and believes that "the worst is over," it may be premature. That's why the Dow Jones fell for three consecutive days and the S&P's gains were limited after the CPI data was released last night, reflecting the market's cautious sentiment. If Trump's tariff policy continues to expand and a tariff war breaks out with more countries, the subsequent CPI is likely to face greater shocks. Whether the market has entered a bear market is still inconclusive. In the short term, the crypto market has lost its endogenous catalysts such as "ETF capital inflows" and "policy-driven positive factors," while being exposed to the dual squeeze of the escalating tariff war and the risk of US economic stagflation. With risk aversion sentiment dominating the market, the market is extremely fragile, and the short-term bullish momentum may be difficult to sustain unless there are key policy adjustments or favorable economic conditions. 4E, as the global partner of the Argentine national team and the only recommended trading platform, supports the trading of crypto currencies, stock indices, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stable coin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 8%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.