At the end of last year, when I had dinner with a friend I met on a trip, I was asked if there were any interesting things happening in the crypto world.
I mentioned the trend of Bitcoin inscriptions in 2023, the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF, the speculative frenzy over Meme coins on Solana, and the new all-time high of Bitcoin, etc.
After listening, my friend just shook his head and said, "They're all a bit off the mark."
This friend of mine had bought into a lot of related concept assets during the time when all kinds of DAO organizations were rampant, buying the US Constitution copy, buying an NBA team, and buying an island to build a utopia, even though the prices have not recovered to this day.
These narratives have become yesterday's news in the eyes of the crypto world, or even "scams." So I'm curious how this "outsider" who only had a brief experience in the crypto world views this perspective, and whether they think these investments were failures.
Her answer was:
Of course not. I had no understanding or interest in crypto before I bought in, but NFTs, the metaverse, and DAOs were the trends at the time, and I felt if I didn't participate, I would be outdated. I know my NFTs have dropped a lot since then, but I've hardly paid attention to them, and I don't think it was a failed investment. It's like when I was a kid and my family bought a Pentium computer - who would say buying the computer was a failure just because the Pentium processor became outdated over time?
I said that the example was not appropriate, because buying a computer is consumption, while buying NFTs and metaverse land is investment. She laughed and said that for her, NFTs and metaverse land were not investments, but consumption. Because investment is rational and not driven by the sensory factors of novelty and trendiness, and investment cannot bring a sense of novelty and trendiness.
Blockchain belongs to the young, and Web3 belongs to the young. We can use it to change the world, or create a world of our own. But now, the crypto world is rapidly losing this appeal.
Belief cannot make money, so only the belief in making money remains
The current crypto world is struggling in the illusion and disappointment of "exhaustion of talent," and is sinking downward.
What can blockchain technology really do? In the years of development of the cryptocurrency industry, the endless new narratives have provided endless momentum for the industry's development, maintaining the "market dream rate" of cryptocurrencies. From the legendary story of establishing the value of a new generation of currency with 10,000 Bitcoins buying 2 pizzas, to the Ethereum ICO craze that turned blockchain into a new, decentralized asset issuance and financing platform, to DeFi (decentralized finance) upgrading blockchain to a bank capable of lending, leveraging and other financial operations, and then to the emergence of "consumer-level applications" such as NFTs, the metaverse, and games.
Blockchain can change the world, and cryptocurrencies can change the world. As long as we hold this belief, stay in this circle with a curious attitude towards all new technological innovations, we will eventually find our own opportunity and reap our own rewards. In the past, many young people were attracted by the vigorous cryptocurrency and joined the cryptocurrency wave, becoming the brave pioneers of the era, and changing their lives in the wonderful cryptocurrency journey.
From the end of 2021 to 2022, all kinds of celebrities around the world rushed to buy or even issue their own NFTs, Facebook changed its name to Meta and went all in on the metaverse, and various DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) popped up like mushrooms after the rain, wanting to buy a copy of the US Constitution, buy an NBA team, and buy an island to build a utopia. This was the "golden age" of blockchain, or Web3, in my heart. In 2022, there was a very lively and "literary youth" Web3 street fair in Dali, with the organizing team gradually expanding from two or three local youth community members to nearly 100 people, completing it in a highly decentralized way.
Also in 2022, the "Tiao Hai" bar, which later received tens of millions of angel round financing, received more attention due to its unique "Web3" features. The owner of this bar, Liang You, said in an interview at the time that he was not from the Web3 circle, but the organizational structure of the "Tiao Hai" bar adopted the DAO model from Web3, and they also issued the first BAYC-themed beer in China.
Twitter is the most active social media platform in the crypto world. In the past, you could see all kinds of crypto industry analysis and industry outlook, sharing or debating different views on the industry's development directions. Nowadays, such content has lost its market and become scarce. Instead, it's about what the dog of Binance founder CZ is called, the "success stories" shared by various "crypto gods," or even discussions about "female college students" and "commercial K."
This change is a direct reflection of the crypto world's "collapse of faith" after being trapped in the illusion of "value innovation." When the US government became more friendly to cryptocurrencies, the crypto world naturally had joy, but also the anxiety and unease of "this is the last bull market." Initially, for the decline of narrative assets such as NFTs as "digital luxury goods" or metaverse land as "digital real estate speculation dreams," the crypto world would blame the project parties for not doing a good enough job. Gradually, they stopped blaming and became indifferent, sneering at all kinds of narratives.
In this disillusionment, exchanges, market makers, and KOLs have become the most powerful forces in the crypto world. If a coin can be listed on an exchange, it means that enough non-blockchain traders can participate. If a coin has a market maker behind it, it means there is capital "orchestrating" to artificially create price movements and make the "game" lively. In the crypto world, these "orchestrating" funds are often called the "conspiracy group." If a coin has KOL participation, it means the KOL also needs to wave the flag and cheer for their own holdings. The most powerful KOLs are called "lead cars," and even if they don't directly tweet propaganda, there will be people tracking their on-chain behavior to buy in.
Not long ago, the Consensus 2025 conference just held in Hong Kong, many crypto people self-mockingly said that although the name of the conference is "Consensus Conference," the people seeking consensus seem to have not found consensus. During the conference, project parties were still able to spend lavishly, renting all kinds of high-end venues to hold exquisite events, even spending 600,000 Hong Kong dollars on alcohol in one night.
But the revelry cannot dispel the crypto world's confusion and anxiety about "where are we going." The crypto world has lost the fairy tale stories that can bring returns through belief, leaving only the belief in making money.
The "NASDAQ-ization" of the crypto world, the original sin of the "second crypto religion"
When the crypto world begins to subconsciously compare the crypto world to a decentralized "NASDAQ," the cracks in the world's largest "cyber religion," cryptocurrency, have already begun to appear.
The value of cryptocurrency can be interpreted from different angles, with the most common being from the perspective of finance. But in my view, the value of cryptocurrency has always been the value of belief, the value of the "cyber religion."
From buying 2 pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins, to becoming the "dark web hard currency", to becoming the legal tender in El Salvador, and then to the US establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve. One great achievement after another, which were unplanned and unpredictable. It is the belief of people around the world in Bitcoin that has carried this "cyber religion" through its turbulent 16 years. If no one had sincerely believed that Bitcoin would become the world's currency in the future, if no one had believed that Satoshi Nakamoto would never move the approximately 1 million bitcoins they own, Bitcoin could never have developed steadily to where it is today.
The "Nasdaq-ization" of the crypto world began with the birth of Ethereum. This was actually the first schism of the "cyber religion", the formal formation of the "second crypto religion". Bitcoin fundamentalists have stuck to the positioning of "currency", and do not want the Bitcoin blockchain to pursue "doing more" at the expense of even a little bit of security, stability, or decentralization. Bitcoin believers believe in the intrinsic value of Bitcoin itself, while Ethereum believers believe that they can and should create more value.
"Bitcoin is gold, Ethereum is silver", through ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, the metaverse, blockchain games and other new blockchain technology experiments, Ethereum has risen to the top, and has finally gained such a position in the hearts of the crypto community. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin also shone at that time, becoming the second "god" in the crypto world after Satoshi Nakamoto.
But in fact, the "second crypto religion" was very unstable from the beginning, because whether it is gold or silver, the world does not need these two precious metals to hand in their "what they can do" report to prove their own value. In this sense, Bitcoin can be compared to gold, but Ethereum cannot be compared to silver. Because from the birth of Ethereum, Ethereum has been on the path of constantly needing to undergo value verification, just like our inevitable human life, which always needs to hand in the answer sheet.
Rather than saying that Vitalik Buterin is a "god", it would be more accurate to say that he is more like the Jobs of the crypto world. Now, his situation seems to be echoing the stage of the early Jobs. In 1985, Apple's performance declined due to competition from IBM, and Jobs was kicked out of Apple's board of directors due to disagreements with most of the management. Nearly 20 years later, Ethereum is facing competition from Solana, and when Vitalik Buterin expressed that he would not actively contact the government to seek "amnesty" as a positive factor, he also became "V Dog" from "V God".
On the crowdfunding platform Kickstarter, many games have taken a long time to complete fundraising and final delivery. "Shenmue 3" took more than 4 years, and "Star Citizen" has been in the Alpha test stage for more than 12 years. But in the highly speculative cryptocurrency market, Vitalik Buterin cannot get the same long-term patience from the market.
But in fact, whether the various new blockchain technology explorations that have taken place on Ethereum can "take off" and whether they are useful, it requires the right time, place and people. Take NFT as an example, from the birth of CryptoPunks to the explosion of NFTs, it took about 4 years in between. And if we say that NFT has found a "new artistic medium" for blockchain technology, computer vision (art) created by computer algorithms has originated since the 1950s, and it was not until about 70 years later that it found blockchain technology to give it uniqueness and traceability, and found the perfect presentation form - after all, if you just print the images generated by computer algorithms with a printer, their charm will be greatly discounted.
Why has the crypto world lost patience this time?
Real bull market or fake bull market?
Because Bitcoin hit a new all-time high last year.
In the crypto world, the phrase "carving a boat to find a sword" is used to specifically refer to capturing the next big market based on past upward experience. One of the iron rules of "carving a boat to find a sword" is that the Bitcoin halving every 4 years will trigger a new bull market. Bitcoin will rise and hit a new all-time high, and then consolidate at the high level, with Altcoins led by Ethereum becoming the protagonists of the "second half" of the bull market, and a series of new blockchain technology narratives will bring one wealth myth after another with returns of tens or hundreds of times.
When Bitcoin hit a new all-time high again last year, the crypto world still believed in this iron rule. Different from the previous bull markets, this time, the crypto world is more anxious. This anxiety still comes from the loss of faith - even the US government has come in to "take over", and going forward, the opportunities left for retail investors will be fewer and fewer.
The new all-time high of Bitcoin does not directly bring benefits to most crypto people, because the scale of Bitcoin is too large, and it is difficult to quickly achieve financial freedom by investing in Bitcoin. What people hope for is the "Altcoin frenzy" after Bitcoin's new all-time high.
This time, the objective conditions for replicating the "Altcoin frenzy" do not exist. First, the funds actively participating in the Bitcoin spot ETF are actually active in the traditional financial market, and do not directly enter the on-chain, like the past participation in on-chain activities such as DeFi, NFTs, and the metaverse. Secondly, there has not emerged a new crypto-native narrative within the crypto world that can make people refreshed and united, let alone attract the attention and participation of people outside the circle.
But after waiting for 3 years, is this the result? The crypto world is not satisfied, and the "dissatisfaction" has formed a false bull market, which the insiders call "PvP" - in the last bull market, everyone was driven by a common enthusiasm and vision for new narratives, and the concept of Web3 even spread to some non-blockchain industries. This time, there is no consensus on new narratives, and everyone just wants to be a "smart guy" and win from the losses of the other party.
This is very similar to the ending of "Alice in Borderland" - one difficult survival game after another, which is actually the last survival instinct of people on the verge of death from a meteor strike disaster, creating a fantasy together.
For the "cyber religion", this is a very bad situation, it releases a very dangerous sign - the crypto world, in its bewilderment and loss, in the anxiety of making money, has stripped off the idealism and sacredness of the crypto world with its own hands.
Pessimistic honesty is actually an unwilling self-diminishment
The crypto world has started to call cryptocurrencies a "big casino".
Last year, I met offline with a long-time friend who was a meme coin trader. Meme coins were his entry into the cryptocurrency market, and they were almost the only track he was interested in in the cryptocurrency market.
"I just think this thing is fun, it's something that our generation of young people play with. Meme coins, or remove the word 'coin', these kinds of things are fanciful and not well understood in the real world, but in the cryptocurrency market, everyone recognizes this thing, this culture. When I found that my sense of smell or aesthetic for these contents could make money, I thought meme coins were really cool and fun."
After he finished saying this, we had a big drink. As the alcohol spread through my body, my mind quickly flashed through those meme coins that had once excited me, such as $DOGE, which was derived from the famous Shiba Inu meme and repeatedly mentioned by Musk, and $PEOPLE, which was used to collectively buy a copy of the US Constitution.
But now, the "interesting" key to meme coins has almost failed. Putting aside everything, closing my eyes, there is only one word left:
"Gambling"
Solana, the most lively "crypto casino" in this round of the fake bull market, has seen more than 640,000 meme coins appear since April 1 last year, and this is just the data as of early July last year. That is to say, in a period of 3 months, an average of more than 7,000 new meme coins appeared on Solana every day.
The disappearance of "cyber religious believers" corresponds to the emergence of "crypto gamblers". The "crypto gamblers" post a string of English and numbers mixed together as "addresses" on various chat software every day, which are commonly referred to as "CA", which means the contract address of the token. With this address, you can accurately locate the token that needs to be traded.
"Smart money" and "dev" are the most concerned factors of success and failure for "crypto gamblers". "Smart money" is equivalent to "crypto gambling god", these addresses on the blockchain are sought after for their high win rate in daily transactions, and their trading actions will attract many "crypto gamblers" to follow and buy in. "Dev" is the abbreviation of "developer", these are the creators of the tokens. "Crypto gamblers" need a relatively reliable "gambling initiator", and try to avoid participating in "gambling" initiated by token creators with a history of large-scale dumping after the start.
Objectively speaking, this round of the fake bull market has created the most wealth story narrative, which is the narrative of the "crypto casino". But this should have been an honest acknowledgment of the current situation, which has ultimately become a numb self-righteousness.
This is the most serious challenge that the "cyber religion" of cryptocurrencies has faced so far - when the idealism and sanctity of an industry appear to be cracked, no one knows when and in what way this crack can be repaired.
In fact, can this crack really be repaired?
The consensus of cryptocurrencies is not unbreakable, it needs to continue to grow
The greatest value of the "new narrative" created by the blockchain technology innovation in the crypto world is to allow the "cyber religion" to appear in a more diversified form in front of the world, and to allow more people to develop interest and in-depth understanding of cryptocurrencies through different channels. In the past, this was a positive feedback loop with the growth of cryptocurrency prices, but now it has become decoupled.
The growth of cryptocurrency prices is more about strengthening the faith of the existing "believers". And the amazing wealth stories created by cryptocurrencies have not directly helped the "evangelism" of cryptocurrencies.
Does the crypto world need a new narrative? Yes. Is it urgent? No. The world is constantly evolving, and technological progress will bring endless new demands, and it is very likely that next year, or even tomorrow, the answer to the question "what else can blockchain do" will automatically emerge. Even if not, is the original narrative good enough? No, it can still be done better, and it still needs to be explored further.
If cryptocurrencies are just a "casino", just a paradise for speculators, then they have already started the countdown to death. How the crypto world views this industry determines how this industry will present itself to the world.
This generation of young people may still think cryptocurrencies are cool, but what about the next generation, and the generation after that? How will they view cryptocurrencies?
I don't know, my friend, the answer is blowing in the wind.
