On March 15, on-chain data analyst Murphy posted statistics on social media, stating that the cost basis of ETH positions opened from January to February 2025 is roughly between $3,200 and $3,500. A cluster of addresses has been accumulating heavily at $3,475, with a total of 1.66 million ETH. This group did not sell during the ETH drop to $1,900 and instead bought the dip, and now holds 1.94 million ETH with an average cost basis of $3,150.

Additionally, the cost basis of positions opened in mid-February 2025 is roughly between $2,600 and $2,800. This group started taking profits as ETH price broke below $2,300, and now only has 1 million ETH at $2,800 and 850,000 ETH at $2,630 remaining unchanged.

As the price continues to decline, the new demand for ETH has been gradually weakening, especially after the price dropped below $2,000, with data showing almost no new buying power.

Murphy explained that the high-cost basis positions have been trying to average down through a series of buy-the-dip efforts, but their buying power seems to be exhausted. The current $1,850 level is the cost basis of large holders' positions from 2 years ago, and they are starting to average down (buying back some of their previous high-price sales) at this level, which could provide support. If this level fails to hold, the price could potentially drop to $1,600 and $1,250, which are the remaining support levels from 3 years ago.

From the overall investor behavior, the most important factor is the re-establishment of consensus on the value of ETH. Without an effective consensus, the high-cost basis positions at $2,630 (850,000 ETH), $2,800 (1 million ETH), and $3,150 (1.945 million ETH) will all act as significant resistance on the path to recovery.