Analyst: The purchasing power of the addresses that opened positions at high levels in this round of ETH has been exhausted, and a strong rebound may require the market to re-establish consensus

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Blockbeats
a day ago
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On March 15, on-chain data analyst Murphy posted statistics on social media, stating that the cost basis of ETH positions opened from January to February 2025 is roughly between $3,200 and $3,500. A cluster of addresses has been accumulating heavily at $3,475, with a total of 1.66 million ETH. This group did not sell during the ETH drop to $1,900 and instead bought the dip, and now holds 1.94 million ETH with an average cost basis of $3,150.

Additionally, the cost basis of positions opened in mid-February 2025 is roughly between $2,600 and $2,800. This group started taking profits as ETH price broke below $2,300, and now only has 1 million ETH at $2,800 and 850,000 ETH at $2,630 remaining unchanged.

As the price continues to decline, the new demand for ETH has been gradually weakening, especially after the price dropped below $2,000, with data showing almost no new buying power.

Murphy explained that the high-cost basis positions have been trying to average down through a series of buy-the-dip efforts, but their buying power seems to be exhausted. The current $1,850 level is the cost basis of large holders' positions from 2 years ago, and they are starting to average down (buying back some of their previous high-price sales) at this level, which could provide support. If this level fails to hold, the price could potentially drop to $1,600 and $1,250, which are the remaining support levels from 3 years ago.

From the overall investor behavior, the most important factor is the re-establishment of consensus on the value of ETH. Without an effective consensus, the high-cost basis positions at $2,630 (850,000 ETH), $2,800 (1 million ETH), and $3,150 (1.945 million ETH) will all act as significant resistance on the path to recovery.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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