10x Research: Bitcoin may enter another 8-month oscillation period, and the market lacks the momentum to "buy on dips"

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ODAILY
03-15
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Odaily reported that Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said that Bitcoin may repeat the trend of 2024, entering a long period of volatile consolidation after hitting a new all-time high. He pointed out that Bitcoin's technical chart currently presents a "high tight flag" pattern, which is usually considered a bullish continuation pattern, but the current structure shows some signs of weakness, indicating that the market is in a state of uncertainty rather than a simple bullish consolidation. In addition, Thielen observed that the US spot Bitcoin ETF market has not shown a clear "buy-the-dip" sentiment, lacking new inflows of capital. He believes that most ETF funds are mainly driven by arbitrage-driven hedge funds, and the persistently low funding rates have reduced investors' willingness to add more capital during the recent pullback. According to Farside data, since Bitcoin fell below $90,000 in early March, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a cumulative outflow of about $1.66 billion. Bitcoin is currently trading at $84,290, down 23% from its all-time high of $109,000 set in January. Thielen believes that it is unclear whether Bitcoin will be able to resume an upward trend in the short term, and suggests that investors temporarily close their short positions at this stage, but there are still no clear signals to support a strong rebound. Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes had predicted on March 10 that Bitcoin could retest $78,000, and if it breaks below that support, $75,000 would become the next key level. Nexo research analyst Iliya Kalchev believes that Bitcoin may form a more sustainable rebound base in the $70,000 low area.

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