QCP 资本表示，随着加密货币叙事越来越少，股市仍然是主要关注点。上周美国 CPI 数据低于预期，暂时缓解了市场压力，但美联储不太可能立即转向鸽派。鉴于持续的关税风险和通胀担忧，降息仍不确定。随着市场寻找美联储下一步行动的任何线索，尤其是特朗普政策转变的不确定性，波动率可能会继续居高不下。

<div>QCP 资本表示，随着加密货币叙事越来越少，股市仍然是主要关注点。上周美国 CPI 数据低于预期，暂时缓解了市场压力，但美联储不太可能立即转向鸽派。鉴于持续的关税风险和通胀担忧，降息仍不确定。随着市场寻找美联储下一步行动的任何线索，尤其是特朗普政策转变的不确定性，波动率可能会继续居高不下。<br><br></div>

QCP 资本：市场聚焦美联储动向，降息前景仍存不确定性

QCP Capital stated that with the <crypto narrative> fading, the stock market remains the main focus. Last week, the US CPI data came in lower than expected, temporarily easing market pressure, but the Fed is unlikely to turn dovish immediately. Given the persistent tariff risks and inflation concerns, rate cuts remain uncertain. As the market searches for any clues about the Fed's next move, especially the uncertainty around the Trump policy shift, volatility may remain elevated.

<div>QCP Capital said that with the crypto narrative fading, the stock market remains the main focus. Last week, US CPI data came in lower than expected, temporarily easing market pressure, but the Fed is unlikely to turn dovish immediately. Given the persistent tariff risks and inflation concerns, rate cuts remain uncertain. As the market looks for any clues about the Fed's next move, especially the uncertainty around the Trump policy shift, volatility may remain elevated.<br><br></div>

QCP Capital: The market focuses on the Fed's moves, and the prospect of interest rate cuts remains uncertain

QCP Capital analysis pointed out that a BTC whale opened a $400 million short position (40x leverage) at the 84K price level over the weekend. The market once tried to force the position to be liquidated, but the position is still being held, and has generated nearly $400,000 in funding fees. The current crypto fear and greed index is 32%, with a strong risk-averse sentiment in the market, but BTC is still holding at the 80K key support level, outperforming the US stock market. The focus this week includes US retail sales data on Monday and the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with the market expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged and looking for signals of policy adjustments.

QCP: BTC remains stable at 80K, the market is paying attention to the Fed's decision

The past week has seen the White House and the Federal Reserve turn a blind eye to the stock market crash, with both sides seemingly unwilling to back down in this "coward's game". Although the creation of a recession expectation is most likely just a negotiation tactic of Trump's maximum pressure, the uncertainty of the policy game has further fueled the market's risk-averse sentiment.

However, to date, the continued decline of the US stock market is more like the active compression of the valuation bubble by the top-level, rather than a harbinger of a crisis spiral. The most typical example is that during the $5 trillion evaporation of the US stock market, the A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, European stocks, and gold have risen sharply, which is different from the collective...

Why Bitcoin will continue to hit new highs this year

In the past few days, we have mainly re-examined the development of the market. As for the current market sentiment, many people seem to have new hopes for the expectation of interest rate cuts (by the Federal Reserve).
The crypto market last enjoyed the benefits of interest rate cuts in 2020, before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the federal funds rate (the rate adjusted by the Federal Reserve) was actually not high, only 1.5% - 1.75%. But in order to cope with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve made two emergency rate cuts within a month: the first rate cut was 50 ...

QCP Capital: The market focuses on the Fed's moves, and the prospect of interest rate cuts remains uncertain

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