Odaily星球日报讯 据去中心化加密链上期权平台 Derive 的研究报告，比特币市场恢复的平静可能是短暂的，可能会为引发大幅价格波动的风暴奠定基础。自 3 月 12 日以来，BTC 稳定在 80,000 美元至 85,000 美元的区间内，这种盘整通常出现在显著的方向性变动之后。由于多种因素，包括唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税以及对美国战略 BTC 储备缺乏新购买的失望，价格在前几周从 100,000 美元暴跌至 80,000 美元以下。随着最近的盘整，关键波动率指标已经下降，接近月度低点。然而，波动率具有均值回归性，这意味着低波动率机制可能很快为价格动荡铺平道路。（CoinDesk）

Odaily星球日报讯 据去中心化加密链上期权平台 Derive 的研究报告，比特币市场恢复的平静可能是短暂的，可能会为引发大幅价格波动的风暴奠定基础。自 3 月 12 日以来，BTC 稳定在 80,000 美元至 85,000 美元的区间内，这种盘整通常出现在显著的方向性变动之后。由于多种因素，包括唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税以及对美国战略 BTC 储备缺乏新购买的失望，价格在前几周从 100,000 美元暴跌至 80,000 美元以下。随着最近的盘整，关键波动率指标已经下降，接近月度低点。然而，波动率具有均值回归性，这意味着低波动率机制可能很快为价格动荡铺平道路。（CoinDesk）

观点：比特币当前平稳是暂时的，即将迎来价格大幅波动

Odaily reports that according to a research report from the decentralized crypto-based options platform Derive, the calm recovery in the BTC market may be temporary and could lay the groundwork for a storm that triggers significant price volatility. Since March 12, BTC has stabilized in the range of $80,000 to $85,000, and this consolidation typically occurs after a significant directional change. Due to various factors, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and disappointment over the lack of new purchases for the US strategic BTC reserve, the price plummeted from $100,000 to below $80,000 in the past few weeks. With the recent consolidation, key volatility indicators have declined, approaching monthly lows. However, volatility has a mean-reverting nature, which means the low-volatility mechanism may soon pave the way for price turbulence. (CoinDesk)

Odaily report: According to a research report from the decentralized crypto-based options platform Derive, the calm recovery in the <BTC> market may be temporary and could lay the groundwork for a storm that triggers significant price volatility. Since March 12, <BTC> has stabilized in the range of $80,000 to $85,000, and this consolidation often occurs after a significant directional change. Due to various factors, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and disappointment over the lack of new purchases for the US strategic <BTC> reserve, the price plummeted from $100,000 to below $80,000 in the past few weeks. With the recent consolidation, key volatility indicators have declined, approaching monthly lows. However, volatility has a mean-reverting nature, which means the low-volatility mechanism may soon pave the way for price turbulence. (CoinDesk)

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s current stability is temporary, and it will soon experience large price fluctuations

Odaily reports that Bitfinex has released a new analysis report, which points out that Bitcoin fell to a low of $77,041 last week, with a pullback of 29.7%, which is the second deep correction in this bull market. At the same time, the continuous outflow of the US spot Bitcoin ETF (a total of $921.4 million last week) indicates that institutional buyers do not yet have enough strength to offset the selling pressure. Historically, when the inflow of new capital slows down and the cost base trend changes, it indicates that the demand environment is weakening. As Bitcoin struggles to maintain above critical levels, this trend is becoming more and more evident. Without new buyers entering the market, Bitcoin may face the risk of long-term consolidation, and may even fall further as weaker buyers continue to exit their positions. The key factor to watch is whether long-term holders or institutional demand will reappear at lower market levels. If more well-funded investors start to absorb Bitcoin sell-offs, it may signal a shift towards accumulation, which could stabilize the price trend and reverse market sentiment.

Bitfinex report: Institutional buyers have not offset selling pressure, crypto markets are waiting for a trend reversal

Odaily reports that analyst Timothy Peterson pointed out in a new chart report that Bitcoin is about to enter its traditional strong months - the "golden window" of April and October. If the historical seasonal pattern repeats, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $126,000 before June 1, representing over 50% upside potential from the current price of $82,967. He stated that Bitcoin's current price is already close to the lower end of the historical seasonal volatility range, and emphasized in his chart analysis that "the average duration of Bitcoin being below the trend line is only 4 months, and the red dotted trend line points to a target of $126,000 on June 1, which is highly consistent with the explosive pace after the bull market correction." The data shows that there have been five corrections of more than 20% so far in the current cycle since 2023, but each correction has been followed by stronger upside. The bull market has not yet departed, and the current is just a short-term correction. Market observers generally believe that Bitcoin's correlation with traditional financial assets has increased, and it may be affected by short-term fluctuations in U.S. stocks, but its unique deflationary attributes and geopolitical hedging demand will allow it to break out an independent trend before June.

Analysis: April and October are traditionally strong months for Bitcoin, and BTC may see a strong rebound before June

Odaily reported that the co-founder of market maker GSR said: "The value of Bitcoin remains unchanged, it is still $100,000, it is now just a 20% discount due to risk and uncertainty. It is only a matter of time before Bitcoin returns to a stable region. If we eliminate all uncertainty, Bitcoin will appreciate. We are in a bull market." (DL News)

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s current stability is temporary, and it will soon experience large price fluctuations

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