Odaily星球日报讯 QCP 于其官方频道发文表示，本周三美联储降息的可能性极低，但任何来自鲍威尔的鸽派信号都可能成为比特币上行动能的催化剂。随着美国从“财政主导”（政府支出推动增长）转向特朗普推动的赤字削减，政策重担重新落到货币政策肩上。虽然 QCP 不预期美联储会出现意外降息，但鸽派信号可能引发市场上行动能。 宏观波动性已略有缓解，VIX 指数回落至 20 左右，比特币波动率也有所下降，目前仍在 80,000 美元至 85,000 美元区间内震荡。在缺乏新关税消息的情况下，地缘政治重回焦点。黄金价格突破 3,000 美元，而比特币则继续表现出负相关性。 从历史来看，加密货币价格往往滞后于全球流动性条件的变化。随着美联储可能的政策转向以及来自欧洲和中国的新一轮刺激措施，比特币在此次调整后或迎来新一轮上涨行情。

Odaily星球日报讯 QCP 于其官方频道发文表示，本周三美联储降息的可能性极低，但任何来自鲍威尔的鸽派信号都可能成为比特币上行动能的催化剂。随着美国从“财政主导”（政府支出推动增长）转向特朗普推动的赤字削减，政策重担重新落到货币政策肩上。虽然 QCP 不预期美联储会出现意外降息，但鸽派信号可能引发市场上行动能。宏观波动性已略有缓解，VIX 指数回落至 20 左右，比特币波动率也有所下降，目前仍在 80,000 美元至 85,000 美元区间内震荡。在缺乏新关税消息的情况下，地缘政治重回焦点。黄金价格突破 3,000 美元，而比特币则继续表现出负相关性。从历史来看，加密货币价格往往滞后于全球流动性条件的变化。随着美联储可能的政策转向以及来自欧洲和中国的新一轮刺激措施，比特币在此次调整后或迎来新一轮上涨行情。

QCP：宏观波动性已略有缓解，比特币在此次调整后或迎来新一轮上涨行情

Odaily reports that QCP posted on its official channel that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this Wednesday is extremely low, but any dovish signals from Powell could become a catalyst for the upward momentum of Bitcoin. As the United States shifts from "fiscal dominance" (government spending-driven growth) to the deficit reduction pushed by Trump, the policy burden is once again falling on monetary policy. While QCP does not expect the Federal Reserve to make an unexpected rate cut, dovish signals could trigger upward momentum in the market. Macroeconomic volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX index falling to around 20, and Bitcoin's volatility has also declined, currently fluctuating between $80,000 and $85,000. In the absence of new tariff news, geopolitics has returned to the spotlight. Gold prices have broken through $3,000, while Bitcoin continues to show a negative correlation. Historically, cryptocurrency prices often lag behind changes in global liquidity conditions. With the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift and new rounds of stimulus measures from Europe and China, Bitcoin may see a new round of upward momentum after this adjustment.

Odaily reports that QCP posted on its official channel that the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this Wednesday is extremely low, but any dovish signals from Powell could become a catalyst for the upward momentum of Bitcoin. As the United States shifts from "fiscal dominance" (government spending-driven growth) to the deficit reduction pushed by Trump, the policy burden is once again falling on monetary policy. Although QCP does not expect the Federal Reserve to make an unexpected interest rate cut, dovish signals could trigger upward momentum in the market. Macroeconomic volatility has eased slightly, with the VIX index falling to around 20, and Bitcoin's volatility has also declined, currently fluctuating between $80,000 and $85,000. In the absence of new tariff news, geopolitics has returned to the spotlight. Gold prices have broken through $3,000, while Bitcoin continues to show a negative correlation. Historically, cryptocurrency prices have often lagged behind changes in global liquidity conditions. With the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift and new rounds of stimulus measures from Europe and China, Bitcoin may see a new round of upward momentum after this adjustment.

QCP: Macro volatility has eased slightly, and Bitcoin may usher in a new round of rising prices after this adjustment

Odaily reports that according to a research report from the decentralized crypto-based options platform Derive, the calm recovery in the BTC market may be temporary and could lay the groundwork for a storm that triggers significant price volatility. Since March 12, BTC has stabilized in the range of $80,000 to $85,000, and this consolidation typically occurs after a significant directional change. Due to various factors, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and disappointment over the lack of new purchases for the US strategic BTC reserve, the price plummeted from $100,000 to below $80,000 in the past few weeks. With the recent consolidation, key volatility indicators have declined, approaching monthly lows. However, volatility has a mean-reverting nature, which means the low-volatility mechanism may soon pave the way for price turbulence. (CoinDesk)

Viewpoint: Bitcoin’s current stability is temporary, and it will soon experience large price fluctuations

Odaily reports that the current price of Bitcoin has fallen 22% from the historical high of $109,000 set on January 20, the day of Trump's inauguration. Although investor sentiment has repeatedly fallen into the "extreme fear" zone, crypto analysts generally believe that the Bitcoin bull market cycle has not yet ended, and this decline may be a "shakeout" - a sharp drop caused by the concentrated unwinding of long positions, followed by a rapid rebound. Bitfinex analysts pointed out that "multiple key technical indicators have turned bearish, triggering speculation about the premature end of the bull market. However, the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is still a key factor, and history shows that corrections during the bull market cycle are a normal phenomenon. This is more likely to be a shakeout rather than the beginning of a bear market. The bottom of Bitcoin may form in sync with the US stock market (especially the S&P 500), and the $72,000 to $73,000 range is still a key support area, but the trend of global bond yields and the stock market will dominate the next move of Bitcoin. The risks of the trade war have been partially priced in, but long-term economic pressures may suppress sentiment." Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev stated that "although Bitcoin's four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has dropped to a historical low of 8%, the halving event is still crucial to the long-term price trend. The halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, and Bitcoin has already accumulated an increase of over 31% since then. Although the ETF inflows driven by institutional adoption have been the main driving force in the past year, the halving effect will continue to impact the market."

Opinion: Bitcoin is experiencing a "shakeout" rather than the beginning of a bear market, and the four-year cycle is still the key factor

Gold breaks through $3000 to set a record, the cryptocurrency market and US stocks enter a technical consolidation phase in sync.

QCP: Macro volatility has eased slightly, and Bitcoin may usher in a new round of rising prices after this adjustment

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