On March 18, the international rating agency Fitch said it has lowered its forecast for US economic growth in 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%. The US government has launched a global trade war, which is expected to reduce economic growth in the US and globally, increase US inflation, and delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. China and Germany's expansionary fiscal policies will mitigate the impact of the US raising import tariffs. The eurozone's economic growth this year is expected to be lower than the forecast in the December 2024 Global Economic Outlook (1.2%). The tariff shock is expected to increase US short-term inflation by 1 percentage point, and the Federal Reserve is expected to delay further interest rate cuts until the fourth quarter of 2025.