According to ChainCatcher's message, Fitch stated in its latest Global Economic Outlook that global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.3% this year, far below trend levels, and also lower than the 2.9% in 2024. Fitch also revised down its forecast for U.S. economic growth from 2.1% in December last year to 1.7%, and its growth forecast for 2026 from 1.7% to 1.5%.

Fitch said that the tariff hike will lead to a rise in U.S. consumer prices, reduce real wages, increase business costs, and the surge in policy uncertainty will impact business investment. It is estimated that the tariff shock will cause a 1% rise in U.S. inflation in the near term, and believes the Federal Reserve will delay further easing of policy until the fourth quarter of 2025. It now expects the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates once this year, but as the economy slows and the tariff level stabilizes, it expects three more rate cuts in 2026.