Bedrock is about to launch TGE this week: low valuation and high returns, can the BTCFi craze continue?

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ODAILY
03-19
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On March 16, Bedrock announced on the X platform that the BR Token Airdrop Query is now live. 5.5% of the total BR supply will be airdropped in the TGE (first quarter); the points program will continue to be used for future rewards; the number of eligible airdrop addresses exceeds 200,000; more than 100,000 wallets will receive additional loyalty rewards; all community airdrops of BR tokens will be fully unlocked.

On the same day, Bedrock announced that its token BR has supported the pre-deposit function on three exchanges: Bitget, Bybit, and gate.io. Subsequently, the above three exchanges also confirmed the listing of BR spot trading.

These two important news items directly related to the token have quickly attracted market attention, and the community feedback has been enthusiastic:

  • Babylon official held an online Space on the X platform to discuss Bedrock's latest ecosystem progress, indicating their high attention to Bedrock;

  • Bedrock's partner Penpie (@Penpiexyz_io) reposted Bedrock's official airdrop announcement;

  • Community member BILI (@BiliSquare) with 56,000 followers stated that through comparative analysis of FDV and TVL ratios with similar projects, Bedrock has high investment potential;

  • Community member cryptodoggy (@MultiDoggy) actively promoted the project by releasing related videos.

...

What has made the Bedrock project frequently receive positive affirmation from the community and continue to attract attention in the current sluggish market? Based on various information, we summarize the following four core reasons:

(1) Bedrock's airdrop rules are conscientious and in line with market expectations for the TGE (token generation event) rhythm;

(2) The current FDV valuation is relatively low (2 to 3 billion USD), with significant growth potential;

(3) The project has a high degree of community-driven, with a large proportion of retail investors, and is not dominated by large institutions;

(4) The fundamental data performance is outstanding: the total TVL reaches $443 million, with a user base of over 278,000, the project ecosystem covers 19 chains, and has integrated more than 60 DeFi protocols.

Against the backdrop of positive market response, the upcoming Bedrock token's specific valuation has also become the focus of investors' attention.

Bedrock Token (BR) Valuation Analysis and Potential Forecast

Valuation Logic and FDV Comparison

First, based on the current BTC re-pledging market size (about $3.5 billion) and Bedrock's market share (about 15%), its reasonable initial FDV is between $200-300 million.

Using TVL as the basis, and referring to the valuation data of competing projects in the same track (Swell, Ether.fi, Solv) (TVL data from Defillama; FDV data from Coinmarketcap), the results show that Bedrock has a significant FDV price advantage and considerable growth potential:

As shown in the table, the average FDV/TVL of similar products that have already issued tokens is about 1.43. Based on this coefficient, Bedrock's FDV has the potential to grow to $682 million ($477 million * 1.43) in the future.

The Connection between Diamonds Points and BR

As an important protocol in the Babylon ecosystem, Bedrock uses the unique Diamonds points mechanism to incentivize users to actively participate in asset pledging and liquidity provision, enhancing ecosystem activity. This mechanism has been widely recognized by the community since the mainnet launch on January 28, 2024. The Season 1 points rewards have ended and the snapshot has been completed, and it is currently entering the Season 2 stage, with the specific points rules yet to be announced.

Bedrock's core contributor Zhuling (@czhuling) publicly stated in the TGE community call that the Diamonds points will be exchanged for the native BR token at a specific mechanism during the TGE. Users who hold uniToken until the TGE and actively participate in uniToken DeFi will receive higher airdrop rewards, further enhancing the community's confidence in the project's long-term development.

Community Valuation Estimation and Investment Value Analysis

So far, Bedrock has not officially disclosed the total supply of the BR token.

However, according to the analysis of KOL BITWU.ETH, as an important participant in the BTCFi 2.0 field, Bedrock's FDV is estimated to be around $200-300 million, much lower than its competitors. Meanwhile, the FDV/TVL of emerging cross-chain staking or yield aggregation protocols often reaches 3-5 times. Even based on the industry average level, Bedrock's FDV still has significant upside potential - even if it only reaches the median level, Bedrock's FDV has the potential to double compared to the current level.

According to the speculation of Discord community member Jerry, based on the FDV range of $200-300 million, the Diamonds points price is expected to be in the range of $0.003 to $0.007. Although this valuation is relatively low, considering the growth potential, the BR token price may reach the optimistic range of $0.2 to $0.3.

Based on the community's optimistic estimate of the BR token price range of $0.2 to $0.3, the airdrop APY can be calculated: Assuming active users pledge 1.3 uniBTC (worth $85,000) on the Pendle platform for 6 months, they will receive 23,824 BR tokens as airdrop rewards:

  • If the BR price is $0.2, the corresponding annualized yield (APY) is about 9%;

  • If the BR price is $0.3, the corresponding APY reaches 13%;

This predicted yield range (9%-13%) highlights the attractiveness of Bedrock's airdrop strategy, with a relatively high return level (note that the above calculation is a community user case estimate, and the actual situation may change with market conditions).

After understanding the FDV valuation and BR APY yield forecast, let's delve into Bedrock's unique token economic design and learn about the innovations of the PoSL and veBR models.

PoSL and veBR Token Model: Building an Enhanced Paradigm for Bitcoin Staking Economy

Against the backdrop of traditional staking protocols generally adopting a single-token incentive model and the separation of governance rights and capital efficiency, Bedrock innovatively introduced the ve (vote-escrowed) token model, applying the PoSL (Proof of Staking Liquidity) framework to the Bitcoin re-pledging scenario for the first time, and building a dual-token system that deeply integrates governance and revenue.

veBR, as the first governance token designed for pledging liquidity, uses the BR token locking minting mechanism to bind users' time preferences with the long-term development of the protocol. This design not only solves the problem of separation between capital efficiency and governance rights in the re-pledging scenario, but also, through the design of non-transferable governance certificates, realizes the value transformation of "liquidity is governance rights" for the first time in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

PoSL: The Combination of Staking and Liquidity

PoSL is different from traditional single-yield staking protocols, as its core advantage lies in incentivizing users to stake multiple assets (such as uniBTC, uniETH) to earn BR tokens, achieving a dual increase in yield and liquidity. The staking process for users is simple and easy to participate in, but it should be noted that the yield level will be directly affected by market activity and changes in the ecosystem's TVL.

veBR: The Balance of Governance and Rewards

BR is a tradable governance token, and veBR is obtained by locking BR, granting the following rights to holders:

  • Governance rights: Participate in protocol upgrades, BR emission allocation, and other decisions;

  • Yield boost: Increase staking returns, providing additional rewards for long-term holders;

  • Season voting rights: Participate in Season operations, with voting rights reset in each Season to ensure fairness and dynamic participation.

This mechanism reduces the market circulation of BR by locking it, helping to stabilize and increase the long-term value of the BR token. However, for ordinary investors, it also means accepting the risk of limited liquidity. The collaboration between Bedrock and Aragon further enhances the transparency of the governance process, helping to increase investor confidence in long-term holding and participation in governance.

When Diamonds are converted to BR after the TGE, users can choose to sell them directly or further lock BR to obtain veBR, enjoying a higher yield boost. The mechanism design of PoSL and veBR closely connects investor returns with the long-term development of the platform, with a low participation threshold for users, who only need to hold BTC or ETH to join. However, market risks should be closely monitored: a decrease in the ecosystem's TVL may lead to an overall decline in yields; the previous $2 million vulnerability incident with uniBTC (which has since been compensated) also reminds users to be cautious about protocol security risks.

In summary, Bedrock's Diamonds credit mechanism is a more explicit and effective incentive mechanism, which can help improve user enthusiasm and ecosystem participation. At the same time, its innovative economic model and technical layout have laid a solid foundation for the sustainable development of the project, and are worth further attention and research by investors.

In the future, whether Bedrock's veBR token model truly forms a flywheel effect will depend on whether the governance incentives and long-term locking mechanism continue to promote the growth of ecosystem value, and the answer to this question will be found in the project's own products and technologies.

Product Layout and Technical Advantages

Bedrock's product layout and technical design focus on providing users with safe and sustainable investment returns. This positioning has driven Bedrock to form a differentiated development strategy characterized by multi-asset and multi-chain deployment, with a focus on the BTCFi track.

Bedrock supports a variety of assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and IoTeX (IOTX). The multi-asset layout allows retail investors to flexibly choose investment targets, effectively reducing the risk of price fluctuations in a single asset. Cross-chain deployment has already covered 19 chains, including Ethereum and BNB Chain, and plans to connect more networks, further increasing the flexibility of asset participation.

Priority Layout in BTCFi and the Launch of brBTC

Bedrock sees BTCFi as a core direction, committed to fully tapping the potential of Bitcoin in the DeFi field. In the BTCFi 1.0 stage, Bedrock launched the uniBTC product based on the Babylon protocol's single-yield model, which has accumulated over 4,400 BTC in staking and has been widely recognized by users.

To further meet the diverse strategic needs of investors, Bedrock officially launched brBTC on December 20, 2024, fully entering the BTCFi 2.0 stage. brBTC supports various Bitcoin derivatives (such as WBTC, FBTC, mBTC, cbBTC, BTCB, uniBTC), with a total of about 500 BTC staked. brBTC not only integrates the Babylon yield channel, but also stacks multiple protocols such as Babylon, Kernel, and Pell to provide yields, with the following specific features:

  • Multi-protocol yields: Connecting protocols such as Babylon, Kernel, Pell, SatLayer, and Mellow, allowing retail investors to obtain multi-source returns through a single asset, reducing dependence on a single strategy.

  • Ecosystem integration: Unifying various Bitcoin derivatives, simplifying the participation process, suitable for retail investors who want to use BTC directly.

  • Application extension: Supporting stablecoins and other functions to increase asset utility, but the actual yield depends on market acceptance.

brBTC has been initially deployed on Ethereum and BNB Chain, and retail investors can complete asset deposit and staking participation through mainstream wallets. In the future, as more blockchains are integrated, the usage threshold of brBTC will be further lowered, and the coverage of users will be more extensive. However, users need to pay attention to the compatibility and risks of cross-chain assets between different chains.

Security is an important consideration for retail investors. To ensure protocol security and reliability, Bedrock has collaborated with multiple professional audit firms to conduct strict audits and continuous monitoring of smart contracts and related protocols. In addition, brBTC has passed audits before launch and further reduced asset security risks through the deployment of Layer-2 technology.

Bedrock's current product layout and technical advantages have already shown initial results, and are clearly reflected in its market data performance.

Data Performance and Market Activities

TVL and On-chain Performance

Left: uniBTC TVL; Right: uniETH TVL

Left: uniIOTX TVL; Right: brBTC TVL

According to Bedrock's official report, the project's total TVL has been continuously rising since April 2024.

Bedrock TVL

In addition to the impressive TVL data, Bedrock's performance on the BNB Chain in the past few weeks has also been outstanding. It has ranked first in user growth and trading activity for two consecutive weeks, and has also launched an exclusive pre-TGE activity on the Binance Wallet and BNB Chain.

User Growth and Activity

According to the latest ranking on the BNB Chain platform (as of March 18, 2025), Bedrock has ranked 5th in the DeFi category, reflecting the project's strong competitiveness and user recognition on this chain.

The user growth within 7 days totaled 18,000, and the daily user growth rate was significantly higher than the industry average of 685 for most time periods; the trading volume within 7 days totaled 29,000, and the daily trading volume exceeded the industry average of 2,300 for most time periods.

Both the user count and trading activity have shown significant growth trends, further confirming the strong market demand for its products and the active participation of users.

Community Influence

It is worth noting that Bedrock's user base has exceeded 278,000, and unlike other leading protocols (such as Lido and Renzo) that are mainly institution-driven, Bedrock has a higher proportion of retail investors, with a self-driven community. This decentralized community ecology provides the project with a more solid long-term development foundation.

Against the backdrop of continuous growth in data and outstanding market performance, investors are most concerned about the post-TGE performance and future development plans.

TGE Expectations and Future Layout - How to Seize Bedrock's Explosive Window

As the BR token TGE countdown begins, the market's expectations for Bedrock are focused on two core logics: the value trough under low FDV valuation and the strong narrative drive of the BTCFi track explosion. Currently, the project has released three key positive factors - the launch of the airdrop checker, the opening of pre-deposit channels on three major exchanges, and the continuous deepening of the Babylon ecosystem integration, while the potential listing expectations (such as Binance and OKX) may become the next catalyst after the TGE.

It is worth noting that the BR token activity has been launched on OKX Web3 Wallet and Binance Wallet in succession. If the team announces new cooperation with leading CEXs and progress in the brBTC ecosystem integration (such as compatibility with Solana or Layer 2 protocols) before the TGE, its FDV is expected to break through $300 million and hit the $500 million valuation range.

From a long-term perspective, Bedrock is building a "Bitcoin liquidity layer" through the PoSL mechanism + veBR governance model, connecting BTC staking yields with the nested value of DeFi Lego. As brBTC penetrates 19 chains and integrates deeply with 60+ protocols, the project may lead the paradigm iteration of BTCFi 2.0 - making Bitcoin not only a yielding asset, but also the underlying fuel of the cross-chain liquidity network. The feasibility of this path has been verified by data: the participation of over 270,000 users and a 15% BTC re-staking market share provide a strong user base for ecosystem expansion.

For investors, the participation strategies after the TGE can be divided into:

  • Season 2 participation window: Season 2 has automatically started on March 7, and current staking can still capture the undisclosed bonus points rules. It is recommended to complete the uniBTC position deployment within 1 week before and after the TGE;

  • Airdrop token disposal: Based on the principle of triangular balance (profitability, security and liquidity), it is recommended to use 30% to obtain veBR governance rights through BR staking (estimated APY 15%-20%), 40% to cash out and lock in the basic profit at the right time, and 30% to participate in brBTC liquidity mining to amplify the returns (such as Pendle, Curve pools);

  • Loyalty program bonus: According to recent community information disclosure, long-term holders are expected to receive additional rewards in subsequent quarters (previous participants in the first quarter have already received airdrop incentives, and the additional rewards after the TGE are for users who continue to participate in the second quarter and beyond), such as BR token airdrop bonus, Diamonds points conversion ratio increase, and special weighting of governance rights, to further incentivize long-term participation and ecosystem contribution.

Overall, Bedrock is currently at a critical stage of development, and the market is full of optimistic expectations. Investors need to make strategic deployments and seize the development dividends brought by the BTCFi boom.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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