The crypto world is in turmoil again. Do you still remember the top “madman” @liujia0224 in the crypto in 2017?
The "digital currency trend maniac" who updates his articles every day and points the way for countless traders with a "responsible, focused and sincere" attitude.
This public account was once a daily must-read for Bitcoin traders. As soon as the article came out, it instantly received over 100,000 views. It can be called the "weather forecast"of the crypto, accurately predicting the ups and downs of digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ethereum.
On social media, he was once a top figure, known to everyone. The threshold for joining his group of big investors was shockingly high (rumor has it that it starts at 10 bitcoins), and those who could join the group were either rich or noble, which was invisibly a symbol of status.
However, after several rounds of bull and bear markets, KOLs have also turned to YouTube and Twitter, and rumors about the "madman"'s retirement have also been rampant. Now, the crypto is in turmoil again. What is the "madman" who once dominated the crypto doing?
This is the "Friends of OKX" series of interviews. This series aims to explore the career stories, industry thinking and lessons of KOLs from different backgrounds for new users to learn from. This interviewer is Mercy @Mercy_okx, welcome to follow~
Main article navigation:
Chapter 1: The Madman Says - The Past
Chapter 2: Madman Says—Now and Future
Chapter 3: Madman Says: Advice for Newbies
Chapter 1: The Madman Says - The Past
1. Why did you get into the industry? When you first learned about BTC, it was only about 600 RMB.
Mercy, hello, everyone, I am very happy to have a space with friends from OKX. Let me briefly introduce myself. I have a master's degree in finance. I have worked in many large financial institutions, including securities companies, trust companies, and insurance companies. I have a deep understanding of various financial products and financial derivatives.
I started investing in stocks in 2008, and that was when I fell in love with trading. Of course, when I was young, I also experienced the accidents that all traders must experience, such as leverage liquidation. The profits that I worked hard to make more than ten times over several years were gone in just a few days. That year, the stock market circuit breaker occurred.
While I was trading stocks, I was also happy to look for some new trading targets. It was 2013, and I played with precious metals trading, stamps and coins, and Bitcoin. What impressed me most was Bitcoin. At that time, an exchange had just been established and was promoting it crazily on Baidu. Registering an account would give you 0.1 Bitcoin. The first time I saw the price of Bitcoin was more than 600 yuan. Then, in the one month that I participated in the transaction, Bitcoin rose from 600 to 8,000 yuan, which was the accelerated bull market in 2013. There was not much money in that wave, and the focus was on A-shares, but I also made 100,000 yuan. Later, as the buy the dips, I kept buying at the bottom. After all the trouble, I didn’t have much money left.
But it planted the seed of my love for Bitcoin trading. Bitcoin trading has three advantages over A-shares. The first is no transaction fee, the second is 24/7 trading, and the third is T+0 trading. These three points are really a paradise for someone who loves trading. But then Bitcoin entered a bear market in 2014 and 2015, and the volatility was too small. It coincided with the bull market in A-shares at that time, so not much attention was paid to Bitcoin.
In 2016, the A-share market was in a bear market, and I thought about Bitcoin again. Then I thought, since I was so obsessed with it, why not try to work in an exchange? So with many years of experience in A-shares and cryptocurrency trading, I successfully entered the exchange as an analyst.
Since then, I have started my own virtual currency life. In today's words, I have entered the crypto industry.
2. Why did you start writing public accounts? How to become the number one self-media in the crypto?
It was a coincidence that I started writing WeChat public accounts. At that time, WeChat public accounts were very popular and were the iconic products that opened the era of self-media. I also like to try new things. At that time, I was just writing for fun on Huobi. The content was all about finance, not the crypto. For an account with zero followers, the second article had 2.5 million views, which made me feel the power of WeChat public accounts. So I thought, if I share my years of stock trading experience in the crypto, wouldn’t this be a dimensionality reduction attack?
As expected, because of his professionalism, his number of fans soon surpassed that of the few analysts at the time, and he has been at the top of the rankings ever since until his official account was banned five years later.
As for the community, I didn’t build it specifically, because I put enough effort into writing the official account, so all my interactions with the community were placed in the message area of the official account. I also received continuous positive motivation by writing the official account, and I persisted in daily updates for more than 6 years, 5 of which were on the official account. The madman-style community was naturally formed.
The process of content output was quite bumpy. 2017 was the year with the fastest fan growth, because the money-making effect was strong and many trading websites had a large number of copycat benefits. In the second half of 2018, the market suddenly cooled down, and there was a dead silence. No one read what I wrote, and users kept losing money. Every day, there was nothing but scolding, which made me doubt my life. At that time, almost 90% of the big KOLs in the same industry stopped doing it, but I chose to persist because I believed that Bitcoin still had a future. I believed that blockchain was the technology needed in the future. As the originator of blockchain, Bitcoin's future is bright.
It was also in that year that I kept recharging everyone’s faith, telling everyone about the future of Bitcoin, and telling everyone that Bitcoin would replace gold in the future, and would more likely become a national strategic reserve and a circulating currency around the world. Bitcoin would eventually be priced in Satoshi, with 1 Bitcoin = 100 million Satoshi. To this day, I still believe this.
Until 2021, the market saw the light of day again, and my fans were celebrating. They said, "Luckily I held on at that time, because I made millions and changed my life. There are countless people like this. At that time, I felt that I was truly successful. I not only changed myself, but also changed those who were willing to believe in me. But later, looking back, I realized that I just did the right thing. These efforts in A-shares may not be able to change my life, so choice is more important than effort.
Chapter 2: Madman Says—Now and Future
1. What impact will the United States' use of cryptocurrencies as national asset reserves have on the crypto market in the short and long term?
Let's talk about the short-term impact first. Trump's policy is a policy that is bearish when it comes to good news. Why? Because the market's expectation for strategic reserves is to push the US government to buy Bitcoin with real money, but in the end, Trump's policy was to confiscate property to make strategic reserves of Bitcoin. Therefore, in the short term, it is obviously not as expected. The market directly turned its face away, sold the news, and responded to this news in a waterfall-like way.
In the long run, the significance of the US strategic reserve is huge. First of all, the US dollar is the most important currency in the world. Sovereign countries in the world used to only reserve US dollars and gold. Now that Bitcoin is included in the US strategic reserve, it means that Bitcoin will be recognized by the world in the future. Although the United States does not buy it (now), if other countries want to include it in the strategic reserve, they obviously need to increase their holdings by buying it. The logic is similar to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust back then, which can only be bought but not sold, but the volume may be hundreds or thousands of times that of Grayscale, so the expectation and boost to the long-term currency price is obvious.
What we need to pay attention to now is who will be the second country to propose a strategic reserve. I believe it won’t be long before countries one after another include it in the reserves.
In addition to value storage, from a monetary perspective, the deeper meaning of Bitcoin's inclusion in the strategic reserve is Bitcoin's liquidity. Compared to gold, Bitcoin is easier to circulate and carry. You can even take it to any place in the world by memorizing the private key in your mind. It is not restricted by any national currency. This is a function that no currency or gold currently has. If such a currency becomes a global currency, it means that billions of people have a small amount of Bitcoin in their wallets for circulation and payment. The era of global currency unification will come. At that time, Bitcoin will be the value anchor, and all commodities will fluctuate around Bitcoin. But this may be the ultimate form.
We just need to know that before the ultimate form arrives, its price is not high at any time. This process will continue to push up the price of Bitcoin. As for how many years it will take, I believe there is still a long way to go. My attitude towards Bitcoin is that it is a long-term bull market, the industry is far from over, and innovation has just begun. Bitcoin will be left to the next generation.
2. Now that all the positive things Trump promised have been implemented, is there any new news that can push the market up further? Or do you think the market has already gone bearish?
In the short term, all the positive news has indeed been realized, and there are no new policies worth looking forward to. The only thing we still hope for this year is that the Federal Reserve will be able to resume QE in the second half of the year to increase market liquidity. Judging from a series of operations since Trump came to power, Trump is creating an artificial economic crisis to force the Federal Reserve to release money, so we are now in this artificial crisis, and it is normal to feel uncomfortable. But we must have a deeper understanding of the word crisis, that there is opportunity only when there is crisis. Every crisis will wash away a large number of undetermined bulls, but in the end the market will always rebound, and those who dare to increase their positions in the pit will eventually get great results. Since we know that Trump is creating a crisis, then this pit will definitely be filled in the end, but how deep this pit will be dug requires us to think more.
Regarding the bull and bear markets, from the perspective of Bitcoin alone, I think it is still in the bull market process. At present, whether from the on-chain data or the capital situation, it does not conform to the logic of the bear market. It is more likely to be in the bull market callback cycle, and the callback amplitude of previous bull markets is often 30-40%, so from 110,000 back, the callback low point is probably 66,000-77,000. The market has already touched this range, but whether it has bottomed out or not, we can combine the trend of the US stock market. The US stock market has had a big negative line for three consecutive weeks, with a drop of more than 10%. This level of callback often does not end quickly. In previous crises, a 10% drop in the US stock market is an appetizer, 20% buy the dips may succeed, and 30% is basically a sure win, so I personally think that the Bitcoin 77,000 position is most likely not the bottom of this callback. In the short term, 77,000 is a good support level, so with the oversold rebound of the US stock market, it is very likely to touch more than 90,000. For medium and short-term band players, it may be a good choice to reduce the price above 90,000 and adjust it down before buying.
Overall, Bitcoin does not meet the bear market criteria yet, but the correction is likely not over, and it is a market of selling high and buying low.
In the long run, I think the following news will push Bitcoin to a new peak:
First, the Federal Reserve will release liquidity again, which I have mentioned before.
Second, the globalization of Bitcoin strategic reserves and the follow-up of strategic reserves in various countries will bring huge growth to Bitcoin.
Third, and most importantly, if cryptocurrency is legalized in mainland China, it will be a huge boon. In terms of purchasing power, no country can compare with the Chinese. Ordinary people have money in their pockets, but there are no good investment targets. The stock market has been at 3,000 for more than ten years, and the capacity has continued to expand but the index has not risen. The loss effect is obvious. Now the real estate market is not very prosperous. With the end of the demographic dividend, the real estate market has been in a bear market for more than ten years.
So if this is really open, trillions of funds will rush in every minute, and it will not be difficult to double the price of Bitcoin. However, if China opens up, it must not open the current cryptocurrency exchanges, but to create a Chinese version of ETF, where money can be bought and sold within the wall, and withdrawals are not allowed, but the price is anchored to the global Bitcoin. To put it bluntly, it is a pool of its own and takes it outside the wall for hedging. After all, the foreign exchange wall cannot fall, which is the foundation of the economy.
3. Which sectors are worth paying attention to in the future, and what types of projects are likely to generate new alpha returns?
OK, let me tell you a few sectors that I think have more opportunities for your reference.
1. RWA: Tokenization of real assets is a very big concept and covers a wide range. First of all, it can be combined with traditional finance on the basis of Defi. Defi is already mature enough in the crypto. If blockchain technology can be used to superimpose the traditional market, then the imagination is infinite. For example, tokenized bonds can be used for mortgage lending, and tokenized equity can greatly increase the liquidity of the financial market and will be of great help to the future economic environment. In addition, the splitting of real estate ownership, using tokens to confirm rights to obtain future income and growth, and the token splitting of artworks are all examples of virtualizing real assets. In short, there are clear landing opportunities here, but the step of putting assets on the chain requires the endorsement of traditional large institutions.
2.AI: Needless to say, AI is the hottest topic at the moment and a sector that will continue to innovate in the future. The integration of AI and blockchain is mainly reflected in AI algorithms. AI requires a large amount of data for machine learning, and blockchain happens to protect data privacy and even turns data into a kind of value transmission, which can enable centralized AI to evolve towards a safer decentralization. At present, except for some simple AI AGENTs, most are still in the concept stage and are far less practical than centralized AI. However, there will always be bubbles. What the market wants is dreams, so there will be expectations of hype.
3. Public chain: This is a sector that has been talked about for a long time. Public chains will be hyped in every bull market cycle, and a few new chains will emerge in each cycle. However, alpha often exists in new chains, not old public chains. This is the logic of standing on the shoulders of giants. Before all chains converge, public chains will continue to iterate and break through the "Blockchain Trilemma" of blockchain until they catch up with the current Internet transmission speed and cost.
4. Payment: Cross-border payment plays an important role in the process of global integration, and traditional finance is notorious for its slow settlement and high cost. The advantages of using blockchain to do these things are obvious, but these pitfalls have basically been occupied by stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC. What we need to pay attention to in the future payment is the integration of payment and smart contracts, such as some IoT devices that earn data value through data transmission, and blockchain projects that replace the banking system. In some backward areas such as South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, a large number of blockchain projects are being used to replace the banking system because the cost of opening a bank account is too high for the poor. For example, the Filipino maid I hired before was paid in legal currency, but she settled slowly, the procedures were complicated, and the wear and tear was high through the traditional financial system. Later, I taught her to use the exchange, use U to settle and then exchange it into local currency, which is convenient and has much less wear and tear.
5.MEME: The MEME coin craze has passed, but this thing will not end. Low-cost and high-return PVP will always exist in casinos because it is in line with the gambling consciousness. In the future, celebrities and brand owners may issue their own tokens on the chain. At that time, there may be more ways to play. For example, tokens can be used to exchange company products. The current hype is only the most basic form. MEME will eventually be empowered, whether it is brand value or consensus value.
From the perspective of the sector, the overall logic is to speculate on new things rather than old things. The big opportunities in the future are still in new projects. 90% of old projects cannot escape the fate of lower prices in each round. After all, for most project parties, the easiest way to make money is to launch a new project rather than to save old projects with dispersed chips.
4. Traditional financial institutions are entering the crypto. Which crypto assets do you think these huge amounts of funds will be allocated to? Where will the funds flow in the future?
Looking at traditional capital, you can refer to four directions: strategic reserves, ETFs, Grayscale and the Trump Fund.
The types of tokens in the U.S. strategic reserve, such as BTC ETH SOL XRP, etc., may be the first ones that traditional institutions will configure when entering the crypto in the future. Because for most traditional institutions, they don’t understand the crypto at all, and they invest with investors’ money with their eyes closed. They configure because they configure, and they absolutely dare not touch those projects that may return to zero. With the endorsement of the strategic reserve, traditional funds don’t have to bear this blame.
Another thing is the future approval of major ETFs in the United States. Currently, only BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and LTC are in preparation.
The configuration of Grayscale Trust represents the direction and expectations of early institutional investors in the U.S. crypto. Currently, Grayscale Trust's single asset trusts include BTC, ETH, BCH, ETC, LTC, SOL, LINK, MANA, FIL, BAT, LPT, XLM, ZEC, and ZEN.
Finally, there is the Trump Crypto Fund, which is also an important reference standard. It currently holds BTC, ETH, TRX, LINK, AAVE, ENA, MOVE, ONDO, and SEI.
Chapter 3: Madman Says: Advice for Newbies
1. What advice would you give to newcomers to the cryptocurrency space? How should they start learning and gaining experience?
For newcomers, the threshold to the crypto is relatively high now. It is not like when we entered the crypto back then. We could just rush in as long as we knew how to buy and sell, and we could do it as long as we had some basic knowledge. After so many years, the crypto has spawned too many ways to play, especially with too much content on the chain. It can be said that everything that traditional finance had before has been copied. The crypto itself is also innovating what traditional finance does not have. This requires a lot of financial knowledge, a strong blockchain reserve, and an understanding of the Internet.
7*24 hours of non-stop trading will make newcomers exhausted, so for newcomers, you can first understand the entire framework of the crypto, such as secondary market transactions, primary market analysis or macro analysis, exchange-related businesses, on-chain treasure hunting, Defi, etc. Newcomers need to focus on niche areas, fully understand a certain field, accumulate experience in practice, talk more with industry veterans and gain more experience, especially those pitfalls that others have stepped on, which are the most valuable assets for newcomers.
The last thing is to learn quickly. Only by running faster than others can you have the opportunity to achieve great results.
2. What common misunderstandings or traps do you think newcomers need to avoid during market transactions?
As for trading, I have been in the market for nearly 20 years, which may make me older than many of the friends who listen to Space. I am not that old. I just started trading when I was in school. I have stepped on many pitfalls over the years. I think the most important thing is to have the right mindset. I often say in tweets that trading is a marathon, not a 50-meter sprint. Don't expect to get rich overnight, but a steady stream of income. As long as you are alive, opportunities are always there. So I pay more attention to how to allocate assets, how to make assets grow steadily every year, which are risky assets, which are cash assets, and which are value-preserving assets, and how to allocate according to my own risk preferences.
If you don’t have much assets now, just work hard in this industry and think about how to make money first. Don’t just think about getting rich quickly through trading, because I have seen too many people who got rich quickly and eventually gave them all back to the market. Many times, the money earned was due to luck, but lost again due to strength.
Also, don't take out loans, and don't use money that affects your life to trade cryptocurrencies, because this will affect the most important thing in your trading: your mentality. Once your mentality is distorted, all operations will be distorted. Once you find that your mentality is not good, stop trading immediately, slow down, and then get back on track.
If you use leverage, remember to set a stop loss for each order before opening it. This is the key to survival. If you cannot comply with this, please do not open contracts or leveraged transactions.
3. How do you suggest newcomers build their own analysis framework and model? What practical tools or methods can you recommend?
In terms of trading, I think the most important thing is not to read books, but to start first, accept failure, accept every stop loss, admit that you are imperfect, even mentally retarded, and learn to respect the market first. So my suggestion is to use very little money to try, to make mistakes, find your own problems from the transaction, and then solve the problems and find a trading method that suits you.
After you accept your failure, you can start learning some theoretical knowledge, look at the indicators, and see what kind of operating rules the K-line has. Here I recommend a few books about trading that I think are more helpful, "Wyckoff Trading Method", "Japanese Candlestick Chart Technique", "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator", "Turtle Trading Rules", and "Stop Loss".
Finally, combine various types of knowledge to increase the success rate of market judgment. Trading is not a simple road, it is a system. It is difficult to get the correct result from a single indicator. Over the years, I have been constantly improving and learning. Trading is a hard road, so if there is a better way to make money, it is recommended not to consider this road. This is a road to wealth with a life-and-death experience. Most people live in mediocrity, and those who can make stable returns are rare. More often, I feel that it is a bit of a competition of talent, or whether your personality is suitable for trading. The key is to find a way to make money that suits you.
Conclusion
Mercy is honored to invite the legendary trader Madman to share this time. "Responsible, focused, and sincere" are the qualities I deeply feel from my teacher. In the boring market situation, I hope everyone can gain something from his sincere and profound cognitive sharing and regain confidence!
Finally, Mercy excerpted a sentence from the madman’s recommended book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, and shared it with everyone:
“There is nothing new on Wall Street, for speculation is as old as the hills. What happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
Risk Warning and Disclaimer
This article is for reference only. This article only represents the author's views and does not represent the position of OKX. This article is not intended to provide (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or hold digital assets; (iii) financial, accounting, legal or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of such information. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risks and may fluctuate significantly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you based on your financial situation. Please consult your legal/tax/investment professionals for your specific situation. Please be responsible for understanding and complying with local applicable laws and regulations.
