Selling Pressure Recedes

Markets are on edge ahead of new U.S. tariffs on April 2, but Bitcoin’s recent resilience versus an uninspiring rebound in the S&P 500 suggests short-term selling may be fading. Key catalysts ahead include the SEC’s March 21 crypto regulation roundtable, progress on a Senate stablecoin bill, and the Fed’s March 18-19 meeting – where Fed Chair Powell’s commentary and updated projections could signal a pause in quantitative tightening.

Realized Vol Comes Down

Bitcoin’s realized volatility has dropped to 50 and Ethereum’s to 65, while short‑dated implied vols plunged 10-15 points as gamma sellers returned. Carry is neutral ahead of this week’s FOMC, and implied ranges being respected. With the Fed meeting and April 2 tariff deadline looming, expect another week of calm before volatility potentially resurges.

Skew Term Structure Flattening

Crypto skew curves are flattening as prices stabilize and downside pressure eases. Front‑end put skew sits near 3 vols for both BTC and ETH, while long‑end call skew confirms a bullish backdrop. Our Hedged Crypto vault remains ~45% hedged via an 80k/120k risk reversal, which worked well to protect the drawdown.

ETH/BTC Shows First Signs Of Bouncing

ETH/BTC spot was trading flat at recent lows all week until we finally saw a 3% pop today. Front‑end vol spread tightened to ~12 vols as realized vols fell, making implied spreads look relatively cheap to buy ETH. Skew spreads favour ETH puts-peaking at a 2-vol differential in June 2025-underscoring lingering downside bias as ETH still has a lot of work to do to bring back the bulls.

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