3 月 20 日，有「美联储传声筒」之称的《华尔街日报》记者 Nick Timiraos 针对美联储经济预测发布评价称，官员们下调了对 GDP 的预测，上调了对通胀和失业率的预测。但是几乎所有人都看到了经济的下行风险。而且，几乎所有人都认为，他们对失业率和通胀的预测存在上行风险。

<div><p>3 月 20 日，有「美联储传声筒」之称的《华尔街日报》记者 Nick Timiraos 针对美联储经济预测发布评价称，官员们下调了对 GDP 的预测，上调了对通胀和失业率的预测。但是几乎所有人都看到了经济的下行风险。而且，几乎所有人都认为，他们对失业率和通胀的预测存在上行风险。</p></div>

「美联储传声筒」：几乎所有委员都看到了经济下行的风险

On March 20, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," evaluated the Federal Reserve's economic forecast, stating that officials had lowered their GDP forecast and raised their forecasts for inflation and the unemployment rate. However, almost everyone saw downside risks to the economy. Moreover, almost everyone believed that their forecasts for the unemployment rate and inflation had upside risks.

On March 20, Nick Timiraos, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal who is known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," evaluated the Fed's economic forecast, stating that officials had lowered their GDP forecast and raised their forecasts for inflation and the unemployment rate. However, almost everyone sees downside risks to the economy. Moreover, almost everyone believes that their forecasts for the unemployment rate and inflation have upside risks.

"Federal Reserve Voice": Almost all members see the risk of economic downturn

Here is the English translation, with <> content retained as is:

On March 19, Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve," reported in his latest article that Federal Reserve officials will consider adjusting the policy of reducing their $6.8 trillion asset holdings at their meeting on Wednesday. Over the past three years, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its portfolio of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities accumulated during previous stimulus programs, including the measures taken in 2020 to stabilize dysfunctional markets disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve is trying to avoid a repeat of the situation in 2019, when it was also reducing its balance sheet. At that time, the balance sheet reduction led to tensions in the overnight funding market, forcing the Federal Reserve to change its policy and expand its balance sheet. Due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and the need for Congress and the White House to raise the federal debt ceiling, the possibility of market volatility in the coming months will increase.

At the most recent meeting in January, Federal Reserve officials discussed the risks posed by the need to raise the debt ceiling, which could lead to a rapid depletion of reserves from the system. The meeting minutes show that officials discussed slowing or pausing the reduction of the balance sheet for a few months, so that the debt ceiling would not affect the Federal Reserve's ability to fine-tune its balance sheet.

<RBC Capital Markets> interest rate strategist Blake Gwinn said that Federal Reserve officials could pause the reduction of reserves until a few months after the debt ceiling is raised, allowing the Treasury to rebuild its cash balance. At that point, the Federal Reserve could resume the reduction of reserves on its own terms.

"Federal Reserve Voice": The Federal Reserve may consider suspending the lock-out period to deal with the risk of the account limit

Odaily Odaily report: The Federal Reserve FOMC economic outlook: the median GDP growth forecast for 2025 is 1.7%, down from 2.1% in December last year. (<金十>)

The Federal Reserve slashed its economic growth forecast for this year

Odaily reports that in its latest global economic outlook, Fitch forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.3% this year, well below trend, and also lower than 2.9% in 2024. Fitch has also revised down its US economic growth forecast from 2.1% in December last year to 1.7%, and its 2026 growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%. Fitch said that tariff hikes will lead to higher consumer prices in the US, reducing real wages, increasing business costs, and the surge in policy uncertainty will impact business investment. It is estimated that the tariff shock will cause a 1% rise in US near-term inflation, and believes the Fed will delay further easing until Q4 2025. We now expect the Fed to cut rates only once this year, but with the economic slowdown and tariff levels stabilizing, we expect three more rate cuts in 2026. (Jinshi)

"Federal Reserve Voice": Almost all members see the risk of economic downturn

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