Followin' the Federal Reserve, the market and the Fed seem to be like an old lady arguing, with no winner. This time is no different, as the market is eagerly waiting to take advantage, but ends up being suppressed by the Fed. The Fed had no intention of cutting rates in Q4, and the dot plot still shows two rate cuts in 2026, a hawkish stance. However, on the balance sheet reduction, it has eased a bit, from $25 billion per month to $5 billion. Powell said they want to drag out the balance sheet reduction, as the previous pace would have completed it in 6 months. Now it can be dragged out for 15 months, mainly to put some pressure on the market, so they don't think the Fed is stopping. The market reacted optimistically to this, as the tariff issue is still looming, reducing the likelihood of more rate cuts. If they cut too much, there would be concerns about the US economy heading towards a recession. But the Fed's current stance suggests the US economy has not yet reached a point of recession, which is a stroke of luck. With less balance sheet reduction, the water withdrawn from the market is also less, so they can get by. However, the Fed has not eased up on monetary policy. No rate cuts! Balance sheet reduction? Still going! Inflation rises? Blame the tariffs and continue to watch the data. Overall, it's a bit hawkish, so let's see how the market battles it. The dot plot still shows two rate cuts, but the hawkish flavor is stronger. The votes for one rate cut or no cut at all increased from 4 to 8; those for two cuts dropped from 10 to 9; and those for more than three cuts decreased from 4 to 2. Seeing many friends last night thought the balance sheet reduction would stop directly, but it's just reduced from $25 billion to $5 billion. So in the short to medium term, US stocks and BTC are still in a bear market, and the C-wave decline is just a matter of time. Although US stocks and Ethereum have been rallying quite enthusiastically, this meeting changed nothing, and the rebound is still not a reversal. The tariff issue is still giving the Fed a headache. Slow economic growth is a fact, and Powell said they're in no rush to cut rates, so don't expect any big turnaround. Don't get too excited about BTC's rise, as the Shifu has said it's a rebound, not a reversal. For now, don't be in a hurry to go short, take a break and then decide. Shifu's Trend Outlook: Resistance Levels: 1st Resistance: 88,200 2nd Resistance: 86,800 Support Levels: 1st Support: 85,300 2nd Support: 83,700 Recommendation: BTC is currently in an adjustment range after retesting $87k, with the RSI in the overbought zone, indicating a potential adjustment. Therefore, it's suggested to first assess the strength of the adjustment, then look for opportunities to enter in the ultra-short term. The high point of 86.8k formed after the 8am close is a short-term resistance. If it's broken during the day, the possibility of testing 88k will increase. If the first resistance is broken and an N-shaped uptrend is formed, the long bias can be maintained. Profits can be taken at the 200-day moving average, then wait for a pullback to re-enter. The first support line is short-term support, and the 84.7 to 85.3k range can be set as the support zone during the day. The 120-day moving average can also be monitored for entry opportunities. If the price breaks below the first support and the 120-day moving average, the downward trend needs to be re-focused, and 83.7k can be used as the second support. The current price is in the overbought zone, so an adjustment is expected. Rather than rushing to go short, it's better to observe the market sentiment, which has largely recovered, and trade from a rebound perspective. Focus on the 120-day moving average on the 4-hour chart and the RSI indicator to judge if the trend has turned bullish. 3.20 Shifu's Swing Trade Placement: Long Entry: 83,700-84,450 with light position, Target: 85,300-86,800 Short Entry: Not Considered