Here is the English translation:
The global stock market continues to be sluggish, unable to sustain the slowdown in the Fed's pace of balance sheet reduction, which would have eased the tightening of market liquidity. The market's focus has returned to concerns about the trade war. Bit has once again fallen into a sideways consolidation, but Arthur Hayes believes that Bit 77K may already be the bottom.
The US labor market is healthy, and the market's focus has returned to the trade war
US home sales exceeded expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims, a measure of the unemployment rate, also met expectations, indicating a healthy labor market.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's market research and strategy team head Daniel Skelly said: "While the bottom of the recent adjustment may have already appeared, we may not have seen the end of the volatility yet. Policy uncertainty has not dissipated, and the market remains sensitive to changes in sentiment."
After the Fed Chair Powell kept interest rates unchanged this week, he downplayed concerns about economic growth and the potential price impact of the trade war. The Trump administration is preparing to announce a new round of tariffs on April 2, but the specific scope is still unclear. The European Union had planned to impose tariffs on US imports in the near future to retaliate against the US tariffs on European steel and aluminum products. However, an EU spokesperson said on Thursday that the plan will be postponed until mid-April to allow more time for discussions with the US government.
Arthur Hayes: Bit 77K may already be the bottom
Bit has once again fallen into a sideways consolidation. The founder of BitMEX, who previously believed that Bit could pull back to 70K, has issued another forecast. He believes that Fed Chair Powell's statement that quantitative tightening (QT) will end on April 1, and the next thing to watch for is the relaxation of the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for large banks and the official start of quantitative easing (QE).
The 77K that Bit previously reached may already be the bottom, but there may still be some pain in the process, so flexibility and sufficient capital are required.
His self-developed US bank credit supply index has started to rise, which he sees as a good sign, although it does not mean that the sell-off is complete, but the possibility is becoming more optimistic.
