According to Arkham's monitoring data, Justin Sun, the founder of TRON, has added $100 million worth of Ethereum to his collateral. Based on the current yield rate, this collateral can bring him about $3 million in passive income per year, sparking discussion in the community.
Santiment: ETH Circulating Supply Hits 10-Year Low
Today, the on-chain data platform Santiment reported that due to the abundance of DeFi and staking options, more and more Ethereum is being withdrawn from exchanges, resulting in the current available supply on exchanges dropping to 8.97 million ETH, a 10-year low (the lowest since November 2015).
In just 7 weeks, the Ethereum balance on exchanges has decreased by 16.4%, which may indicate an increasing willingness for long-term holding and ecosystem participation.
Bitfinex Bitcoin Longs Hit 6-Month High
Meanwhile, as of March 20, the Bitcoin longs on Bitfinex have risen to 80,333 BTC, worth about $69.2 billion, a new 6-month high. Since February 20, the leveraged longs have increased by 27.5%, which is in line with Bitcoin's 12.5% rise from the March 11 low of $76,700. However, experts warn that this rebound is driven by leverage and may not be sustainable.
Does It Reflect Market Optimism?
Historical data shows that an increase in leveraged longs does not necessarily drive up prices. For example, there were instances in July and September 2024 where a surge in leveraged positions was followed by price declines. While some large traders may ultimately profit, their risk tolerance and operational capabilities are far superior to those of the average investor.
Additionally, the current low cost of borrowing Bitcoin (only about 3.14% annualized) also provides opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage. For example, the spread between spot and perpetual contracts (funding rate at 4.5%) can be profited from using a "spot + short futures" strategy, indicating that some positions may be for arbitrage rather than pure long.
Even if the $148 million in leveraged Bitcoin longs on Bitfinex are primarily bullish positions, data from other exchanges suggests a mixed market sentiment. For instance, the Bitcoin leveraged long demand on OKX has declined significantly in the same 30-day period, with the long-short ratio at only 15, the lowest in over 3 months.
Historically, when the market is overly optimistic, the OKX long-short ratio has exceeded 40 (the most recent time was in late February when BTC broke above $105,000). When the ratio falls below 5, it often reflects a strong bearish sentiment. While the current ratio is not extremely pessimistic, it does show hesitation and divergence in the market's outlook on Bitcoin's uptrend.
CryptoQuant: Bitcoin 'Bull Score' Drops to 2-Year Low
Although large investors like Justin Sun are actively deploying ETH assets, and the leveraged Bitcoin longs on Bitfinex continue to hit new highs, the overall market sentiment has not fully turned optimistic. One reason is the relatively pessimistic inflation and economic forecasts released by the U.S. Federal Reserve on March 19, which raised concerns about potential recession and global trade tensions.
These macroeconomic uncertainties have led investors to adopt more conservative strategies. Even as whales increase their positions, they cannot quickly ignite a broad-based bull market, and caution is still warranted in the short term.
Additionally, the crypto research firm CryptoQuant mentioned that the Bitcoin Bull Score is currently only 20, a 2-year low. Compared to the historical trend of requiring a score above 60 to see a strong rebound, the current level remains in a weak zone.
Further Reading: CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over, On-Chain Data Turns Bearish, 50x Insider Whales Start Shorting BTC
