Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:

As the week is about to end, looking back at the market sentiment, it's been quite unfriendly. The Federal Reserve's decision didn't quite match market expectations. You might say they reduced quantitative tightening, but on the surface, it seems like they've released some water.

But in fact, the Federal Reserve isn't doing this for any positive news, they just want to drag out the quantitative tightening timeline. As a result, investors aren't buying it, with no surprises to speak of.

Not to mention that the market previously expected three rate cuts this year, but now it's back to two, which is utterly disappointing. Powell refuses to admit that the US economy might fall into recession, but between the lines, he also said that economic growth is indeed slowing down.

Additionally, two things need attention next week: one is the core PCE data, and the other is the University of Michigan's inflation indicator. The market's expectations for these two data points aren't great, and it seems it'll be nerve-wracking.

On April 2nd, two more things will unfold: one is the formal implementation of US reciprocal tariffs, and the other is the House Financial Services Committee's review of the stablecoin bill. This stablecoin bill is clearly the first step for the US to enter the cryptocurrency market, and the signal is very clear.

Regarding the current market sentiment, everyone is starting to accept a reality: inflation is likely to oscillate for a while, and tariffs might even add fuel to the inflationary fire, and the US economy might continue to slide.

Master Chen has long been mentioning in articles that to understand whether the market will rebound or reverse, one must look at macro sentiment and liquidity. But given the current situation, the conditions for a reversal are far from sufficient, and any rise would just be a temporary rebound.

Back to the market, for the BTC circle this year, everyone believes the peak will be in the fourth quarter, which is now a market consensus. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates in June or July, then the third quarter could be an opportunity to go long at low points.

The first half of the year will basically be oscillating, with opportunities to short at high points and make some money. By the fourth quarter before the peak, smart people should start positioning for a long-term short.

However, Master Chen has also seen some KOLs still nonsensically saying 2026 will be a bull market. First, the next BTC halving won't happen until the first half of 2028, 2027 is a phase of bull-bear transition, so 2026 will definitely be a deep bear market. If you can't even get this big trend right, why even play?

Definitely trapped midway, with few chips left, unable to take advantage even when the weekly bottom comes. Want to turn things around and make big money in the next bull market? Not a chance! In every bear market, when you enter determines how high you can climb in the next bull market - this is simple.

The current market is a stage of washing out, changing hands, and long-short wrestling. Don't expect a one-sided market. After some up and down oscillation and sideways grinding, the market makers will jump in to clean up. First, they'll take out the side with more chips - this is an old trick.

At this point, you can short at high points, hedge with a low long, quick in and out of short and long positions to eat easier meat. As long as the short trend hasn't changed, operations should still focus on shorting at high points, with low long as a supplement. Yesterday's low long in Master Chen's article didn't reach the first target, but still made over a thousand points.

So for high shorts, no need for much defense, just a casual throw; low longs need to be more careful and have a backup plan. With the current complex market, you need to pay more attention to macro data and market sentiment, be flexible, and don't be rigid.

Master Chen's Trend Analysis:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance: 84800

Second Resistance: 84350

Support Levels Reference:

First Support: 83700

Second Support: 83300

Today's Recommendation:

Currently, BTC is forming a box pattern. Intraday, pay attention to breakthroughs at the box's upper and lower edges and trade following the short-term trend. Considering weekend factors, the market is expected to maintain box oscillation.

If the current upward trend continues, breaking the first resistance level, a subsequent pullback is still likely. Since it's currently in a box pattern, avoid long-term positions and consider taking profits in stages at the first and second resistance levels.

The first support level is at the intersection of the box's lower edge and the upward trend line, which is a key short-term support. If the price breaks below the first support level, the short-term trend line will also be broken.

At this point, support may turn into resistance, and market bearish sentiment might strengthen. Recommend simultaneously monitoring the 120-day and 200-day moving averages to confirm trend changes.

3.22 Master Chen's Wave Stage Positioning:

Long Entry Reference: Not recommended currently

Short Entry Reference: Light short position at 84800-85600 range Target: 83700-83300

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