As Trump signed an executive order on March 7 to establish a "Strategic Bit Reserve" and authorized the Treasury and Commerce Departments to purchase Bit using a "budget-neutral" approach to ensure no additional tax burden, discussions continue about whether the US government will accumulate additional Bit as part of national reserve assets.

Bloomberg: US Probability of Buying Bit This Year Around 30%

VanEck Digital Assets Research Director Matthew Sigel recently noted that according to Bloomberg's legal analysts, the US federal government has about a 30% probability of purchasing Bit as a reserve asset by 2025; however, he personally believes the actual likelihood is closer to 50-60%.

According to Sigel's citation, with Trump establishing a strategic Bit reserve and the White House claiming it will not purchase new cryptocurrencies, Bloomberg analysts believe the reserve policy is unlikely to change significantly by 2025.

Treasury Can Accumulate Bit Through 'Exchange Stabilization Fund'

However, policy changes remain feasible. Bloomberg analysts point out that the Treasury can allocate funds from the 'Exchange Stabilization Fund' to purchase new crypto assets. This fund, managed by the US Treasury, is a sovereign wealth fund that can be directly used without congressional approval, originally primarily used to intervene in foreign exchange and financial markets.

If a new financing mechanism goes through congressional approval, it can hardly be implemented in the next two years. Additionally, although Florida Republican Congressman Byron Donalds has proposed legislation to formalize Trump's executive order, it is generally considered largely symbolic with a low probability of actual passage.

Since Trump already has executive authority to directly promote this, he is unlikely to use political capital to push for legislation.

Bloomberg's legal analysts believe the US government's momentum to enter the crypto market proactively in 2025 will significantly slow down.

Polymarket Probability Surges to 71%

However, the market may think differently. According to data from decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the market's prediction probability that the "US government will hold Bit reserves at any point in 2025" has risen to 71%.

Notably, the market's rules are quite clear: the prediction only counts if the US government "actively holds" Bit, excluding cases where Bit is seized or confiscated by law enforcement. Currently, over $2 million in funds have participated in this market, providing some reference value.

Although the specific "budget-neutral" strategy remains unclear, the market has already taken a stance. With Polymarket's prediction probability rising to 71%, it also shows that investors' expectations of the US government holding Bit reserves in the future are gradually warming up.