1. Market Observation
Keywords: BNB, ETH, BTC
BSC ecosystem and Solana ecosystem continue to compete for on-chain popularity. CZ started promoting ecosystem projects, using BNB to long mubarak on APX Finance. This caused APX and mubarak to surge significantly. Notably, Wintermute may become the market maker for the BSC ecosystem meme coin mubarak, having accumulated 6.04 million tokens from Gate over the past four days.
The Solana ecosystem couldn't sit still. Moonshot, which had been inactive for a long time, quietly launched three new MEME tokens: TITCOIN, FAT, and ROUTINE. Trump shilled TRUMP and complained about his portrait being too ugly, which subsequently led to the emergence of the Downald token on the Solana chain, with a market cap of around $14.5 million. Bitcoin closed with a green candle last week, with a closing price of around $86,000, but market views remain divided. In the short-term outlook, Bitget Research's chief analyst Ryan Lee pointed out last weekend that $85,000 would be a critical psychological level, and if the closing price fails to break through this week, Bitcoin may face further downward pressure next week. In the medium-term outlook, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes proposed a "rise then fall" perspective, expecting Bitcoin to first explore $110,000 before retracing to around $76,500. However, trader Eugene stated that the market has entered the fifth stage, characterized by long-side losses, price consolidation, and contraction in volume and volatility. In this stage, some stronger altcoins have reached their bottom, but it remains uncertain whether the bottom has been reached for most assets.
Regulatory developments are also drawing attention. Senator Cynthia Lummis's 2025 Bitcoin bill advocates for the US to acquire 1 million bitcoins within five years, approximately 5% of the total supply. The SEC chairman's confirmation hearing on Thursday is worth watching and may involve cryptocurrency-related content. VanEck's digital asset research director Matthew Sigel mentioned that Bloomberg legal analysts believe there's a 30% chance of the federal government purchasing Bitcoin this year.
On the macroeconomic front, the market is closely monitoring several key indicators. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev emphasized that the consumer confidence index, Q4 GDP, initial jobless claims, and upcoming PCE inflation data will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decision. The Federal Reserve hinted at ignoring short-term inflationary pressures during the March 18-19 meeting, laying the groundwork for potential future easing policies. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard stated that global tariff concerns will continue to pressure the market until tariff-related issues are resolved between April 2 and July.
2. Key Data (as of March 24, 13:30 HKT)
Bitcoin: $86,928.38 (YTD -7.13%), Daily spot trading volume $1.758 billion
Ethereum: $2,050.00 (YTD -38.54%), Daily spot trading volume $9.255 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 45 (Neutral)
Average Gas: BTC 1.47 sat/vB, ETH 0.43 Gwei
Market Dominance: BTC 60.7%, ETH 8.7%
Upbit 24-hour Trading Volume Ranking: AUCTION, XRP, W, ZETA, BTC
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.0496
Sector Performance: AI sector up 5.57%, DePIN sector up 4.73%
24-hour Liquidation Data: Globally 81,306 people liquidated, total liquidation amount $169 million, with BTC liquidations at $58.17 million and ETH liquidations at $25.23 million
