Article source: Talk Li Talk Outside

Although Binance Alpha 2.0 went online on the 18th of this month, I didn't update and experience it immediately because I have completely lost interest in trading MemeCoin recently. However, after updating the APP a few days ago (March 24th), I casually bought a small amount of a token in the Alpha area to try it out, and the operation was indeed very smooth, essentially allowing direct purchase of DEX tokens within Binance (CEX).

Perhaps because the operation was too smooth, the token I bought lost almost 30% in less than a day, but since it was a small test amount, I didn't take the loss seriously. What I mainly want to say is that from a developmental perspective, Binance Alpha seems to have completely blurred the boundaries between CEX and DEX, while also allowing some on-chain tokens to directly obtain Binance's liquidity, enabling ordinary users (newbies) to conveniently acquire on-chain assets without considering slippage, gas, bridging, and other issues, which is indeed a form of progress.

1. Turning Point in the CEX and DEX War

Binance Alpha 2.0 has been online for just about a week, with nearly 94,900 trades and a trading volume exceeding $113 million, which can be considered a good performance in the current market sentiment of low overall mood. As shown in the image below.

Previously, many people were discussing the future war between CEX and DEX, but from here, we can also foresee that perhaps in the future, the crypto market will no longer have a so-called contest between CEX and DEX, but rather whoever can seamlessly integrate the two will become the ultimate winner.

Of course, we are looking at this from a developmental perspective. If you look at it from the current liquidity angle, you can also consider that Binance is just trying to squeeze the market dry.

2. Market Uncertainty and Opportunities

As we mentioned in our previous article (March 24th), apart from some people actively participating in CZ-created hotspots (MemeCoin, wallet new token activities), the market seems to have fallen into a certain sustained silence, with everyone seemingly waiting for a bigger black swan or a larger positive news (such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut or changes in Trump's tariff policies).

However, at the same time, an interesting point is that the prices of many projects have been slowly rising since around March 15th, which can be easily discovered by looking at the corresponding daily trend. Let me give a random example: Pendle in my follow list has risen by about 50% in the past two weeks (from $1.9 to $2.9), though not many people are discussing it.

A few days ago, while browsing group messages, I also found that a partner mentioned this issue, saying: I discovered that the bottom of Altcoins is rising again. As shown in the image below.

Of course, what I want to express here is not that the big market is coming back or that the Altcoin season is approaching - talking about bull market or Altcoin season now would get you scolded and could be misleading. What I mainly want to convey is a perspective: if you're still paying attention to this market, whether short-term, medium-term, or long-term, you need to find your own perspective to conduct necessary in-depth understanding. This way, you'll have a higher probability of discovering potential opportunities ahead of others, and such opportunities often emerge when most people are pessimistic or desperate. Conversely, when opportunities are visible to everyone or everyone is competing for them, you should consider exiting.

Never think that you are smarter than the market; no one can precisely know what will happen next. Our rational approach should be: remain open to all possible scenarios, plan our trades by allocating different probabilities, actively monitor the triggering factors that change these probabilities, and prepare plans in advance (at least Plan A + Plan B, including how to participate, what to participate in, when to participate, and when to exit).

Here, the advice I can offer remains the same: you can use a certain proportion of your position for short-term adventures, such as pursuing higher-risk Altcoins or MEME coin opportunities, but all your short-term operations, including your large-proportion positions, should ultimately point to a long-term goal: accumulating more Bitcoin (not Altcoins).

From a broader macroscopic perspective, we are currently most likely still in a bull market cycle structure.

From a medium-term time frame, Bitcoin seems to be attempting to break through the local interval formed by the local top (but Bitcoin is still in a downward channel of the medium-term trend; let's see if it can break through the $92,000 level this week or next week), and some Altcoins are showing signs of recovery (but this may not be driven by fundamentals, perhaps caused by a new wave of short liquidation squeeze).

From the short-term market sentiment, we are indeed in a "bear market" atmosphere (since the local high point of this cycle, many Altcoins have dropped more than 70%).

From these different perspectives, the strategies should also be different. For example, I personally tend to look at issues from a more macro perspective, so I have been holding a large position of Bitcoin and keeping it unchanged, requiring only sufficient patience. If you want to take action based on the medium-term framework or short-term sentiment, you should always keep a clear head, avoid being passive (such as adopting strict take-profit/stop-loss trading plans, implementing necessary hedging strategies), actively seek what you want to see (rather than what others frequently recommend or what software pushes to you daily), and immediately execute once you discover a potential opportunity (something you believe has a high probability of occurring).

3. Some Practical Price Reference Indicators

There are actually many indicators available, and previous articles have shared many useful indicator tools. Here we'll simply list a few more (using Bitcoin indicators as an example):

- Large Fund Flows on Exchanges (as shown in the image below)

Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing large outflows, with 33,500 Bitcoins transferred from exchanges to cold wallets on March 26th, which might (just a speculation) indicate that large investors or institutions are becoming more active, accumulating from the secondary market.

- ETF Fund Inflow/Outflow Situation (as shown in the image below)

Bitcoin ETF funds began to show net inflows again starting March 17th. Although the inflows have slowed down in recent days, they remain positive. ETF fund inflows often have a positive short-term market sentiment impact, and the increase in total ETF holdings can also serve as long-term support for Bitcoin prices.

- Short-term/Long-term Holder Status (as shown in the image below)

Looking at the short-term holder status, the current average holding cost for short-term investors (or speculators) is around $93,500, which is at a relatively historical high point and simultaneously higher than the current market price of $87,300 (at the time of writing). Considering the trend, the number of short-term speculators is slowly decreasing. These individuals may be experiencing psychological pressure of being trapped or cutting losses. Short-term buying power seems insufficient, but conversely, as short-term speculators exit, the market will gradually become healthier.

- Chip Distribution Structure (as shown in the image below)

Looking at the current chip density distribution, several important intervals have formed, such as the historical accumulation zone around $65,000 (the support band shown by the red line), the new chip density zone around $97,000, and the current chip interval of $80,000-$90,000. Furthermore, as mentioned earlier, we'll first see if we can break through the area around $92,000, and if effectively broken, we might enter a new interval above.

Due to space limitations, we've only briefly listed these indicators. Interested friends can obtain more indicator tools through the toolbox.

In conclusion, trading is not about luck, but about discipline and system. Know your ultimate goal, stick to it, and never risk more than you can afford to lose in any trade.

Article source: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7AuRJK4cTz1ocmTKzOdmHg