Master Chen's Hot Topic Discussion:

Today, Master Chen will share some personal views. Everyone should know about MicroStrategy these days, right? Let's discuss MicroStrategy's high-risk approach and how BTC will move next.

To be honest, MicroStrategy's all-in approach to BTC is incredibly risky. Especially during cyclical deep bear markets, the floating losses can be terrifying and might even lead to a collapse.

Consider this: every four years, BTC drops from its bull market peak with a pullback that can exceed 66%. Who can withstand that? MicroStrategy's strategy is to only accumulate coins without selling, which is like putting all eggs in one basket.

If the company's other business isn't generating enough money, the crisis could be significant. I truly don't believe they can hold on during a deep bear market without selling. It's like a person spending hundreds of thousands annually without saving enough money - how can you possibly just lie flat and do nothing?

What if something unexpected happens, like a serious family illness? That would be the final straw that breaks you. Moreover, this year's situation seems designed to raise prices through a few rate cuts and then cap them.

Otherwise, what reason would BTC have to surge further? Currently, 110k appears to be the peak of this bull market, with 100% certainty. The higher the price climbs, the more massive amounts of money need to continuously support it.

But if the economy deteriorates and enters a recession, with listed companies tightening cash flow, stock and crypto prices will shrink, squeezing out the bubble and falling back into a cyclical bear market.

The current situation is essentially just emerging from the darkest times, with emotions slightly recovering. There are signs of policy relaxation, but people still have many doubts, and the market lacks confidence in a definitive surge.

It might progress in a stop-and-go manner, advancing three steps and retreating one, or even two steps. Good news might trigger a surge, but without momentum, it will oscillate. Any unexpected event could push it further down.

Actually, there's no particularly significant bearish news driving the decline, still revolving around tariffs. Trump said the April 2nd tariffs might not be as harsh, which initially pleased the market, but today he changed his stance, suggesting car tariffs will continue to be complicated.

With tariffs blocking the way and the Federal Reserve watching, St. Louis Fed President Mussa Lam stated that due to tariffs, US inflation might remain above 2% for a long time. The Fed won't rush to cut rates and believes the second round of tariff impacts isn't a one-time price increase.

So April presents numerous challenges, especially with Trump's unpredictable thinking. Additionally, with April's GDP data, some institutions believe there's a 25% chance of a US economic recession in 2025, which sounds quite precarious.

Returning to the market, I've noticed some traders constantly switching between long and short positions. Let me be direct: currently, buying the dip is certainly reasonable in the short term, but try to wait for a pullback before entering.

Even if you want to go short, don't repeatedly trade at the same point. Don't short at the same location more than three times; instead, place orders in batches at higher resistance levels. BTC is now tightly linked to US stocks, and without independent good news, US stock market trends will directly set the pace.

However, trading volume is incredibly low, with no volume during declines and no significant movement during rises. Check certain exchanges and Coinbase, and you'll see trading volume is almost the lowest in two years. What does this indicate? BTC has entered a period of minor oscillation.

Master Chen's Trend Analysis:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance: 89500

Second Resistance: 88300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support: 86800

Second Support: 85800

Today's Recommendation:

BTC is rebounding after adjusting within the upward channel, with potential to test the 88k level again. Since yesterday, the price has maintained the 200-day moving average, so a short-term rebound can be expected.

The first resistance at 88300 is an area retested eight times and represents strong resistance. Breaking this strong resistance would increase market upside expectations, especially if accompanied by increased trading volume, potentially triggering a strong surge.

The next psychological resistance is 90000, so it's recommended to take profits in batches at resistance levels and trade with the trend.

The first support at 86800 is yesterday's previous high area. Maintaining this level without breaking lower would represent a reasonable adjustment and is the first buying point for ultra-short-term traders.

Conservative traders can seek short-term entry opportunities between the 200-day moving average and 85800. However, in the current adjustment, price reaching the 200-day moving average might not represent an appropriate adjustment, so gradual buying around 86800 is suggested.

3.27 Master Chen's Swing Trading Setup:

Long Entry Reference: Light position long at 86800-85800 interval, Target: 88300-89500

Short Entry Reference: Light position short around 88300, Direct short if rising to 89500, Target: 86800-85300

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